Quigley
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Posts posted by Quigley
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Frozen needs another $119m to pass DH2. What are the chances?
Well, consider that it opened to $7.53M in Japan 2 months ago.
It has made $185M (>24x multiplier).
It saw an increase in the last weekend's box office with no holidays during that time.
Last weekend was also above opening weekend (after 2 months!!!!)
This weekend is expected to increase over the previous, or, in a worst-case scenario, have a minute drop (below 5%).
If you can bet against it, do it. But chances are that it will sooner or later get to $315M (what it needs to earn in Japan to surpass DH2 WW).
Obviously, this will happen during or after Summer holidays.
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X-Men's midnight number was lower than other 2014 blockbusters, but higher than Fast and Furious 6 ($6.5M) which also opened on Memorial Day weekend (in 2013). This means it can go either way and make more than F&F6 on opening day ($38.7M) or less than other 2014 blockbusters ($35.2-38.4M). Since this seems a bit contradictory, I think it will once again (and for a fourth time in the last 2 months) end up between $35-40M. This means it is unlikely to earn more than $100M on its 3-day opening weekend (Fri-to-Sun), but it will end up quite close and probably surpass Captain America 2's current 2014 record (F&F6 made $97.4M last year).
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I maintain that it'll have a bigger drop than Pirates 4 during the holiday weekend. It started higher during the weekend but they both earned essentially the same amount on their first Thursday.
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1.10m Mon +12%
0.77m Tue -2%
1.68m Wed -10%
0.72m Thu -17%
185.47m Total
Does that mean these numbers are underestimated? They add up to $4.27M.
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Assuming Sunday was underestimated slightly (say $806M), Mon-Thurs is $5.1M. Wow...
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Screendaily says Frozen OS total on thrusday is 811,1M$
Lol, I was surprisingly wrong.
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China Box Office may reach $5 billion this year. With so many Hollywood blockbusters being released in the next month, I think June can break February's record for the highest monthly earnings, so the half-year earnings will cross $2 billion.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chinas-2014-box-office-hits-706749
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And for a third consecutive week, Screen Daily posted no weekday update for the overseas box office.
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use imgur.com to upload it, then click the "Image" feature on this forum and fill in the photo's url (the one that imgur.com says is for IM)
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New expectation (although technically, the roller coaster ride of these past few days means that it can still drop 10%) is for it to stay above opening weekend and possibly increase compared to last weekend.
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All you need to know is that at the end of Obon it will be 281m. Oooh i just guaranteed another 100m. Thats absurd!
I did predict 166.8 by the end of GW. Maybe this old blind squirrel finds another nut.If it continues to bring in more than $10M per week for the next ten weeks (on average), it should get there before the Obon holiday. I hope that if your prediction is wrong, it will be because it was an underestimate. Otherwise, I really wish that it turns out to be true.
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I was expecting it to crumble in Wednesday. It's still ahead of Pirates 4's first Wednesday, but I still think it will earn less than that movie over the 3-day and 4-day weekend, i.e. less than $39.8M and $50.0M respectively.
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I agree that $7.2M is what everyone is wishing for. The problem is that I can't even decide if that is a high or low expectation.
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I agree that it will earn $350-400M. The highest-grossing X-Men film was Wolverine at $280M but w/o 3D.
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With 10% drops and the dropping exchange rate, Frozen would surpass HP7:P2 WW.
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Disney movies are lame!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some of them are, but not all.
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Ow, man I just run throught this forum and I tought by my self WHOAWHOAWHOEAAAAAA what a run for frozen, saidly I have missed that best part already
To be honest, you spared yourself a lot of time of refreshing the page and waiting for updates on Frozen's box office. Now you can just scroll through everything in one go.
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Prediction for weekend: ¥730M
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Wait, Avengers 1 made nearly 900m so higher than where Frozen is at right now. Is it expected to pass it? Even then I expect Avengers 2 to increase
In contrast to the expectation that it will pass DH2, which isn't realistic, even though it is possible (and no, I don't think the use of mulitpliers is accurate enough to predict the final gross because Frozen's mulitplier has been inflated by almost four weeks of holidays), the expectation that it will pas the Avengers' OS ($895M) is more -if not highly- likely and, given what it has achieved, a realistic possibility.
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In unrelated news: Can't wait for Big Hero 6 trailer tomorrow.
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The fact that Frozen, a non-sequel animation, is even part of a debate comparing its earnings to the prospective earnings of Avengers: Age of Ultron, a highly anticipated crossover sequel in a multi-billion dollar movie franchise based on a massively popular, decades-old comic book universe, is a wildly impressive feat in an of itself.
And remember, this is largely due to Frozen's success in a country where Dinosaur had previously long been the top-grossing WDAS film.
If you think about it, this demostrates how Disney is able to produce such a diverse set of movies, all of which are not only commercially super-successful but also have an above-average quality, at least.
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Sorry to be blunt, but what are you actually smoking?There is no way Frozen gets to $1B OS. Like no way. Ever. That would mean almost $400m in Japan. I can see $900m possibly happening but $1B just no.
I was being sarcastic. But even if the probability is 0.00000000000000000000001%, it's still a probability.
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I'll be happy once it out-grosses Gravity worldwide ($716M). That will be it.
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I'm not sure if anyone has pointed it out but on Monday, it surpassed Iron Man 3's overseas gross ($806.4M) to become the highest-grossing film of 2013 outside North America. Next stop, in what appears to be an almost guaranteed outcome, Frozen will surpass The Avengers' $895.2M to become the highest-grossing Disney film overseas. Successive record-holders were The Lion King, Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Alice in Wonderland, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Marvel's The Avengers. Excluding Lion King and the Avengers, the rest have earned an average of more than $100M in Japan.
Every year since 2010, Disney has broken its overseas record. Alice (2010) gave way to Pirates 4 (2011) which was out-grossed by The Avengers (2012). In 2013, I was slightly disappointed that Disney wouldn't achieve a new record, but it turns out I was wrong. Of course, by the time Frozen surpasses The Avengers, it will be mid-2014. Therefore, we will have to wait less than a year for it to happen again (when Avengers 2 out-grosses Frozen and hopefully earns more than $1 billion outside North America).
It will soon re-claim its position as the Disney movie that earned the most money in 2014. Cap 2 is at $700M and won't earn more than $720M. Frozen made 1206.3 - 530.4 = $675.3M in 2014 which will soon pass $700M and hopefully $800M too.
[update:] And in order to avoid dissapointing die-hard enthusiasts, of course there is a possibility that Frozen might reach $1 billion overseas, but let's not keep our hopes up at this point.
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Sun#s pg 230...Wknd Est: DOFP: 91M, Godzilla - 31.4M, Blended - 14.2M , NB - 13.9M [NO SPOILERS]
in Numbers and Data
Posted
What's the difference between 8pm or 10pm? Either way, it was only the very keen fanboys who went on Thursday night. Other people don't even know because the advertised release date is May 23 or theywon't go until the weekend arrives.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-x-men-days-706776