The Wild Eric

Well...yeah. You're right. But Mubi doesn't have the same resources or reach or brand name recognition as A24. And Substance is still looking to open higher than Decision to Leave's entire run. It could have easily grossed around the same level as something like Titane, but it's looking to far outpace it. I think this is still a victory, especially if this movie drives people to the Mubi subscription service.

Honestly thinking Beetlejuice might threepeat at #1. Transformers is already looking to be super fan-driven, and Beetlejuice just needs a few minor jumps from its current estimates to reach a million or two.

I mean I was thinking it was going to open in the 30s for the longest time and I would think that would be an impressive opening. These animated movies based on live-action properties do have a ceiling to them, and Across the Spider-Verse only broke past that because the first movie was hailed as the greatest thing ever created by humans. But I can't help but think 25M would be quite underwhelming from expectations and potential. Sorry to say. I mean I never heard of the movie or book until this year, and I don't think they are even selling any toys or Funko Pops for the movie or whatever, so I'm gonna say no.

My lack of confidence is just that it isn't a nostalgic toy commercial. Like I know presales are reportedly good, and the reviews are great, but I've been burned enough when it comes to thinking the masses want to see something that isn't something they grew up with. I'll take Migration numbers domestically as a massive victory and Elemental numbers as some unstoppable force at this point. Oh well!

Will say, as an outsider who doesn't really care for Transformers too much, I think the marketing didn't really do much to appeal to anybody outside of hardcore Transformers fans. The only real hook was "they're animated! And Prime and Megatron are now friends I guess". It was already at a disadvantage being an animated movie, and there was nothing else for newcomers or casual fans to get excited over. I love Ninja Turtles, so I do have a bias, but Mutant Mayhem at least had the hook of having the turtles actually being voiced by and acting like modern-day teens, and a cooler, more creative art style. Didn't feel like there was anything fresh here for those not into the franchise like Bumblebee.

Discuss

Discuss

AUTOBOTS, ROLL OUT

I mean...doesn't every animated movie have blatant celebrity casting? It's been that way ever since Katzenberg got away with exploiting Robin Williams to the tune of $500 million.

Chris Hemsworth is going to play Thor for the next 30 years at this point. His anti-Midas Touch needs to be studied, holy shit.

I mean I don't think Lionsgate's 2025 is looking that much better tbh. Better than this year, sure. But anything is better than Lionsgate's 2024. The only two movies on their slate that are looking like hits are the Michael Jackson movie and Saw XI. And even then, the Michael movie has so much potential to backfire for a variety of reasons that even I'm not super certain on it like a lot of others are. Everything else is looking like a bomb too (who asked for a Now You See Me 3), that I'm honestly curious if that new Hunger Games movie will even come out under Lionsgate.

At the very least, Substance will outopen MUBI’s former biggest hit. That is well worth celebrating.

The 512K is from Wednesday Early Access shows, the 327K is from Thursday previews.

Quorum Updates White Bird T-15: 17.07% Awareness, 38.84% Interest Saturday Night T-22: 19.16% Awareness, 43.17% Interest Black Bag T-176: 4.63% Awareness, 33.39% Interest The Accountant 2 T-218: 27.44% Awareness, 38.35% Interest Never Let Go T-1: 31.75% Awareness, 42.99% Interest Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M Transformers One T-1: 53.88% Awareness, 49.92% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 93% chance of 20M, 74% chance of 30M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M Bagman T-8: 19.52% Awareness, 39.49% Interest Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M Megalopolis T-8: 20.34% Awareness, 37.75% Interest Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M The Wild Robot T-8: 37.64% Awareness, 42.97% Interest Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M Venom: The Last Dance T-36: 47.25% Awareness, 54.68% Interest T-30 Awareness: 85% chance of 30M, 58% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M, 23% chance of 80M, 15% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M T-30 Interest: 85% chance of 20M, 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 100M

Moderation Not the Transformers thread. Come on guys, you know this isn't the place to talk about the state of the franchise.

🤮🤮🤮

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-a-minecraft-movie-makes-a-splash-six-months-before-release/

I'm a beast at the Jurassic Park game at my local movie theater

Speaking of CEOs and leadership, we got more Iger succession tea from Variety. Dana Walden reportedly still has the edge, though Josh D'Amaro is still a strong contender. Alan Bergman is also a potential dark horse. Oh the drama! https://variety.com/2024/film/news/bob-iger-replacement-disney-ceo-search-1236150806/

Variety mentioned theaters want to add in pickleball courts and ziplines in these renovations and upgrades. Which like...I think that money would be better spent on just making more IMAX/Dolby/4DX auditoriums into your theater (maybe two of each PLF?), but what do I know I guess?

I mean Michael Eisner publicly admitted he never watched a Disney film in his life before taking his CEO job. Jeffrey Katzenberg had no clue how animation worked, and he became in charge of two hugely successful animation divisions. Getting outside help isn't an inherently bad idea. Of course that was at a time when Disney was at literal rock bottom and on the verge of a hostile takeover, so I don't think getting an outsider to help WDAS is that crucial or necessary. But I think you get my point.

…this is gonna be a long day.