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Happy Summer Movie Season. Play the summer game.

BudStarr

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  1. The Wrap: “Trackers are split in how they think the film will perform, with one projecting an opening in the mid-to-high $50 million range while another projects an opening in the $70 million range that would put it within reach of taking the No. 1 spot from “Avengers.”” https://www.thewrap.com/will-detective-pikachu-be-super-effective-against-disneys-box-office-domination/ EDIT: Sorry, wrong link.
  2. When I posted this last night... I forgot about Far From Home. 🤦‍♂️ 😂
  3. The last 2 weeks have been exceptional circumstances (I mean, 357m OW!) and I actually think the week ahead should be back to relatively normal/comparable levels. However, we have more massive films coming up this year and I don’t know what will happen then. Thanks @Porthos for saying something I’ve been meaning to post all week. I think it probably hits this cap every day, even in the most mundane weeks. As long as it’s hitting the cap in roughly the same window of time then that’s fine. The issue is whether it hits it after 3 minutes or, say, 12 minutes - that’s what skews comparisons. I watched Pulse do its full cycle of 1000 each day this week at the same time (2pm EST) and monitored how long it took to hit the cap (from the time in the top left). On Monday it took 3 mins, Tuesday 4 mins, Wednesday 5 mins. Weirdly it was taking 4 mins when it ‘broke’ so not even the fastest rate that I observed. This is a pretty boring job but it might be the way to work out the percentage by which the numbers are being suppressed compared to normal levels? E.g. If 8 minutes is ‘normal’ but it’s only taking 4 minutes then we should double all the numbers. By the way, it has gone off at exactly the same time these past two days (after the first 11am cycle) so I wondered whether Fandango actually switched it off themselves for some reason? Maybe pre-emptively before it broke? If it comes back at 22:00 again then it could be.
  4. This weekend’s new releases didn’t do amazingly but they came in higher than 16 of the 17 comps above (some by over 200%). As I keep emphasising, hitting the Pulse cap so quickly and consistently is making everything appear lower than it would normally. Even the data we do have for last week is not useful for comps without taking this into account. Incidentally, the only one that came in lower is the comp with Overboard, which was released the week after Infinity War last year so was probably affected in a similar way.
  5. Some really high quality analysis and interesting discussion in the last few pages. Thanks to all who have contributed with numbers from their own local cinemas etc. When I had a few spare moments today, I watched the Pulse feed and paid attention to the times that the tickets were actually bought according to the number in the top left corner. These were my findings... 2pm hour: 607 transactions in 2 minutes (18,210 per hour) 6pm hour: 647 transactions in 2 minutes (19,410 per hour) 10pm hour: 462 transactions in 2 minutes (13,860 per hour) 11pm hour: 273 transactions in 2 minutes (8,190 per hour) So, at 4,000 per hour, we really are just getting a small slice of the full picture right now. At 2pm and 6pm, we must have been hitting that 1000 cap in around 3 minutes which means 12 minutes are unaccounted for out of every 15. Unfortunately I don’t have anything to compare these to. I don’t know what hourly sales levels are like in an average week (or last week for that matter). I think we can make a reasonable assumption that these levels are not the norm. I suspect we probably hit the cap regularly but not to the extent that it’s happening currently, and not as quickly. So no comparisons I’m afraid but I thought I’d post my findings anyway. In normal circumstances, the regular akvalley data is probably ‘good enough’ in its own right. But this could be the way to create like-for-like comparisons in the future for when there is a massive movie dominating the marketplace.
  6. This is the other thing I’ve witnessed. The 10am hour has just updated on akvalley and it currently adds up to exactly 3000. Check it again in an hour after the next update and it will be 4000. The last batch of 1000 hasn’t been added yet.
  7. Yes, I only noticed this for the first time last week but, once I realized it, some previous anomalies suddenly started to make more sense. It has definitely skewed comparisons in the past. I think this Pulse data is generally very good for comparing sales on an average week-by-week basis but if there are 1 or 2 in there that are going through the roof then it skews the data for everything else. Pikachu and Wick got off to a reasonably good start every day last week, consistently showing numbers of 10-12 per hour through the night and early morning, only to collapse to low single digits later in the day. Meanwhile, the niche films that were selling 1-3 tickets per hour disappeared completely. And Endgame itself carried on chugging along doing the same 3500 every hour when it must have actually been selling much more than that.
  8. Yes, that’s exactly how it works. And sure enough, already we’re hitting the cap - add up the tickets for the 9am hour - 4000. I witnessed this throughout the whole of last week and I think it works like this. Pulse shows us the last 1000 transactions and updates this every 15 minutes. If it hits 1000 tickets after 10 minutes, then we don’t see any of the sales in the remaining 5 minutes. If it hits 1000 after 5 minutes then we miss out on 10 minutes of data. So if 8000 transactions take place in a single hour then we will only see half of them. 12,000 and we will only see a third. Assuming the numbers that we do see represent a roughly proportional sample then all numbers should be suppressed reasonably equally - including Endgame’s.
  9. None of the overnight hours have hit the cap yet but, later today, add up the total number of tickets sold by all movies in a single hour and it will always come to 4000.
  10. Yes, your graph perfectly illustrated this. Pulse will probably come back tomorrow and, as Endgame’s sales will continue to be historically high, Fandango will continue to hit its hourly cap, causing the numbers for all films to appear lower than they would normally. These numbers unfortunately can’t be used to make valid comparisons against past releases. I hope people understand this when they interpret the data.
  11. Those Fandango Pulse numbers are not actual raw numbers but subsets that are capped at 4000 (sometimes 3000) per hour. So if 8000 transactions take place in a single hour then we only see half of them. In normal circumstances they can provide something of a guide but last week’s Endgame sales were so huge that they skewed all the data, rendering it unusable. They only tell us what sales were like relative to Endgame. All of the Fandango sales for all movies (including Endgame) were larger than those Pulse figures. I was the person who delved into the archives of last year’s family films with the intention of tracking some family films this summer. However, it quickly became apparent that last week’s Fandango data was useless so I abandoned the plans.
  12. I totally agree. I don’t think truly valid comps can be done until we’re closer to release date anyway. A clearer picture will start to emerge, the range will narrow and there will be more options in a week or so. Thanks for these suggestions. Venom really can’t be used at this point because it only had 15 days of presales but it’s worth exploring later down the line. I’d have to look into Spider-Verse and AMATW as I don’t have the data for them right now.
  13. The correlation is that they are PG films with similar presales windows (30ish days). Shazam has its own issues as well. There is no such thing as a perfect comp. Thanks for the suggestions, @Nova. Here we go... First 9 days 93.8% of Dumbo (43.1m) 407% of Christopher Robin (99.98m) I had dispensed with Dumbo because it only had 18 days of presales to Pikachu’s 30, so at this point we’re comparing “30-22 days out” with “18-10 days out” which isn’t like for like. Just dug into the archives for Christopher Robin, which had 25 days so is closer.
  14. More amazing Endgame numbers today and always fantastic to get a @Deep Wangupdate. Thanks to all who provide them. Here are some updated Pikachu comps for anyone who is interested... Detective Pikachu First 9 days 52.1% of Incredibles 2 (95.2m) 560% of Grinch (378m) 1826% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (805m) 511% of Dragon 3 (281m) 121% of Shazam (65m) Last 7 days 62.2% of Incredibles 2 (113.7m) 315% of Grinch (213.3m) 171% of Dragon 3 (94.1m) Cumulative 39% of Incredibles (71.26m) 230% of Dragon 3 (126.4m) A couple are still way out there but some of these numbers are on their way to looking more sensible and consistent now and I feel like in a week or so a much clearer picture will emerge.
  15. Thanks @Porthos - that means a lot coming from you. Seemed to me like it was heading towards lining up closely to that forecast as well. A lot of time to go yet of course. Thanks. I agree. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing some records being broken next week but I’m also really interested in this one because, while we know Endgame will be enormous, Pikachu is more unpredictable and no one is sure exactly where it’s going to land. Though it will be fascinating to see exactly HOW big Endgame can go. I’m astonished at the numbers that keep coming in day after day. Yeah, I definitely made sure to include all ticket types - a lot of adding up! The Detective Pikachu numbers are here on the Advance Sales spreadsheet that gets brought up in this thread from time to time: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/htmlview#gid=209330330
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