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BudStarr

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  1. When I posted this last night... I forgot about Far From Home. 🤦‍♂️ 😂
  2. The last 2 weeks have been exceptional circumstances (I mean, 357m OW!) and I actually think the week ahead should be back to relatively normal/comparable levels. However, we have more massive films coming up this year and I don’t know what will happen then. Thanks @Porthos for saying something I’ve been meaning to post all week. I think it probably hits this cap every day, even in the most mundane weeks. As long as it’s hitting the cap in roughly the same window of time then that’s fine. The issue is whether it hits it after 3 minutes or, say, 12 minutes - that’s what skews comparisons. I watched Pulse do its full cycle of 1000 each day this week at the same time (2pm EST) and monitored how long it took to hit the cap (from the time in the top left). On Monday it took 3 mins, Tuesday 4 mins, Wednesday 5 mins. Weirdly it was taking 4 mins when it ‘broke’ so not even the fastest rate that I observed. This is a pretty boring job but it might be the way to work out the percentage by which the numbers are being suppressed compared to normal levels? E.g. If 8 minutes is ‘normal’ but it’s only taking 4 minutes then we should double all the numbers. By the way, it has gone off at exactly the same time these past two days (after the first 11am cycle) so I wondered whether Fandango actually switched it off themselves for some reason? Maybe pre-emptively before it broke? If it comes back at 22:00 again then it could be.
  3. This weekend’s new releases didn’t do amazingly but they came in higher than 16 of the 17 comps above (some by over 200%). As I keep emphasising, hitting the Pulse cap so quickly and consistently is making everything appear lower than it would normally. Even the data we do have for last week is not useful for comps without taking this into account. Incidentally, the only one that came in lower is the comp with Overboard, which was released the week after Infinity War last year so was probably affected in a similar way.
  4. Some really high quality analysis and interesting discussion in the last few pages. Thanks to all who have contributed with numbers from their own local cinemas etc. When I had a few spare moments today, I watched the Pulse feed and paid attention to the times that the tickets were actually bought according to the number in the top left corner. These were my findings... 2pm hour: 607 transactions in 2 minutes (18,210 per hour) 6pm hour: 647 transactions in 2 minutes (19,410 per hour) 10pm hour: 462 transactions in 2 minutes (13,860 per hour) 11pm hour: 273 transactions in 2 minutes (8,190 per hour) So, at 4,000 per hour, we really are just getting a small slice of the full picture right now. At 2pm and 6pm, we must have been hitting that 1000 cap in around 3 minutes which means 12 minutes are unaccounted for out of every 15. Unfortunately I don’t have anything to compare these to. I don’t know what hourly sales levels are like in an average week (or last week for that matter). I think we can make a reasonable assumption that these levels are not the norm. I suspect we probably hit the cap regularly but not to the extent that it’s happening currently, and not as quickly. So no comparisons I’m afraid but I thought I’d post my findings anyway. In normal circumstances, the regular akvalley data is probably ‘good enough’ in its own right. But this could be the way to create like-for-like comparisons in the future for when there is a massive movie dominating the marketplace.
  5. This is the other thing I’ve witnessed. The 10am hour has just updated on akvalley and it currently adds up to exactly 3000. Check it again in an hour after the next update and it will be 4000. The last batch of 1000 hasn’t been added yet.
  6. Yes, I only noticed this for the first time last week but, once I realized it, some previous anomalies suddenly started to make more sense. It has definitely skewed comparisons in the past. I think this Pulse data is generally very good for comparing sales on an average week-by-week basis but if there are 1 or 2 in there that are going through the roof then it skews the data for everything else. Pikachu and Wick got off to a reasonably good start every day last week, consistently showing numbers of 10-12 per hour through the night and early morning, only to collapse to low single digits later in the day. Meanwhile, the niche films that were selling 1-3 tickets per hour disappeared completely. And Endgame itself carried on chugging along doing the same 3500 every hour when it must have actually been selling much more than that.
  7. Yes, that’s exactly how it works. And sure enough, already we’re hitting the cap - add up the tickets for the 9am hour - 4000. I witnessed this throughout the whole of last week and I think it works like this. Pulse shows us the last 1000 transactions and updates this every 15 minutes. If it hits 1000 tickets after 10 minutes, then we don’t see any of the sales in the remaining 5 minutes. If it hits 1000 after 5 minutes then we miss out on 10 minutes of data. So if 8000 transactions take place in a single hour then we will only see half of them. 12,000 and we will only see a third. Assuming the numbers that we do see represent a roughly proportional sample then all numbers should be suppressed reasonably equally - including Endgame’s.
  8. None of the overnight hours have hit the cap yet but, later today, add up the total number of tickets sold by all movies in a single hour and it will always come to 4000.
  9. I totally agree. I don’t think truly valid comps can be done until we’re closer to release date anyway. A clearer picture will start to emerge, the range will narrow and there will be more options in a week or so. Thanks for these suggestions. Venom really can’t be used at this point because it only had 15 days of presales but it’s worth exploring later down the line. I’d have to look into Spider-Verse and AMATW as I don’t have the data for them right now.
  10. The correlation is that they are PG films with similar presales windows (30ish days). Shazam has its own issues as well. There is no such thing as a perfect comp. Thanks for the suggestions, @Nova. Here we go... First 9 days 93.8% of Dumbo (43.1m) 407% of Christopher Robin (99.98m) I had dispensed with Dumbo because it only had 18 days of presales to Pikachu’s 30, so at this point we’re comparing “30-22 days out” with “18-10 days out” which isn’t like for like. Just dug into the archives for Christopher Robin, which had 25 days so is closer.
  11. More amazing Endgame numbers today and always fantastic to get a @Deep Wangupdate. Thanks to all who provide them. Here are some updated Pikachu comps for anyone who is interested... Detective Pikachu First 9 days 52.1% of Incredibles 2 (95.2m) 560% of Grinch (378m) 1826% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (805m) 511% of Dragon 3 (281m) 121% of Shazam (65m) Last 7 days 62.2% of Incredibles 2 (113.7m) 315% of Grinch (213.3m) 171% of Dragon 3 (94.1m) Cumulative 39% of Incredibles (71.26m) 230% of Dragon 3 (126.4m) A couple are still way out there but some of these numbers are on their way to looking more sensible and consistent now and I feel like in a week or so a much clearer picture will emerge.
  12. Thanks @Porthos - that means a lot coming from you. Seemed to me like it was heading towards lining up closely to that forecast as well. A lot of time to go yet of course. Thanks. I agree. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing some records being broken next week but I’m also really interested in this one because, while we know Endgame will be enormous, Pikachu is more unpredictable and no one is sure exactly where it’s going to land. Though it will be fascinating to see exactly HOW big Endgame can go. I’m astonished at the numbers that keep coming in day after day. Yeah, I definitely made sure to include all ticket types - a lot of adding up! The Detective Pikachu numbers are here on the Advance Sales spreadsheet that gets brought up in this thread from time to time: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/htmlview#gid=209330330
  13. I’m not much of a poster but a regular reader of this thread and really appreciate all the analysis and numbers from everyone here. Inspired by @CoolEric258‘s suggestion, I delved into the akvalley archives for PG/family/kids presales from 2018. Here’s some comparisons up against Detective Pikachu: First 7 days 49% of The Incredibles 2 (89.5m) 580% of The Grinch (392m) 3048% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (1.34b) Day 30-24 120% of The Incredibles 2 (219m) Cumulative 38.1% of Incredibles 2 (69.6m) I went for TI2, Grinch and HT3 because they were PG with 35, 28 and 25 days of presales respectively, similar to Detective Pikachu’s 30 day frame. The data is nowhere near ideal at this stage, I know, but I do like The Incredibles 2 as a comp. Main takeaway for me is that, apart from TI2, family film presales are so low 3 weeks out as to be virtually useless for drawing any firm conclusions but hopefully they will become more meaningful as the days roll on. Any more suggestions for good comps from 2018 and I’d be more than happy to keep wading through the archives to supplement the already great numbers provided by @CoolEric258 @Porthos @TalismanRing Etc. 😀
  14. I think there are some interesting battles in there. Crowded marketplace though. Will any do over £2m?
  15. Long time lurker, first time poster. Love this thread. Do you really think TFIOS can manage that, Heretic? I've seen huge hype on social media. Does anyone know how the previews did?
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