katniss

Why? I thought Japan generally has much better multipliers than the US. I remember Frozen had some crazy 20x multiplier from OW.

Wow Hailee and the Bee really kicked the crap out of Emily Blunt and the mouse. I'm glad for Paramount. I was hoping for 4x production budget but 3.7x is almost as nice.

lol nice try troll. Aren't you the genius that was waxing poetic about the also ran known as Mary Floppins? Aquaboy ran that garbage over real fast lol. Aquaman is on track to challenge Civil War and has already conquered Christopher Nolan. It's spectacular for sure, and groundbreaking for DC. As a solo superhero origin movie, only Black Panther outclasses it in terms of box office performance.

It's on track to hit 330 million domestic and 1.12 billion worldwide. Not including Japan of course. If it has a mini breakout of 30 million in Japan, it can defeat Civil War.

Not sure home video is gonna make up for the costs of MPR - it is dangerously close from going from a disappointment to a flop. 130 million budget plus 100 million for marketing = 230 million costs. 320 million total gross multiplied by 0.5 = 160 million in studio revenue. Losing 70 million on a 230 million investment qualifies it as a box office flop for sure, if not an outright bomb. ETA: Or are there other markets that havent opened yet for MPR? If so, they could salvage the movie. It needs to make over 400 million to break even.

lol nice troll post. AQM is going to approach Civil War. Just crazy. NO ONE, except me, predicted it would do this well. I had it pegged to beat TDKR to become DC's biggest grosser ever.

I'm happy for this movie. It had its weak spots (the storyline, the sidekick dude) but the characters, the visuals, the Bee, and of course Hailee mfing Steinfeld more than made up for it. I actually cared about both the Bee and Hailee. Das huge for a TF movie.

WOW. The rule of thumb was just stuff i read here and on the Net, you're supposed to add 50-100 percent of a movie's production budget to get actual total costs. I went with 50% just to be conservative. I never imagined the marketing budget would be 200% the production budget. Damn. Is there any chance that studios have ways to reduce the total cost of movies that aren't accounted for here? For example, even though Sony spent 19 billion on non production budget costs as stated here, are there any items like film production tax credits that would help offset this ginormous amount?

Marketing is the answer. For all of Disney's strengths and the impressive way they've built their animation and Marvel properties, it is the WB that really stands out as world class marketers. WB are absolute pros at this. Crazy Rich Asians, Aquaman, and A Star is Born were standouts this year, and who can forget IT from last year. If i were a filmmaker, i would have no problems entrusting the marketing of my movie to WB.

Yeah, I just went with the rule of thumb to add about 50% to a production budget to get the total budget, so 130 million production budget and 70 million for P/A for an even 200 million total cost. Using the other rule of thumb that studios usually take in about 50percent of total global revenue, it would mean 400 million is the breakeven point. I'm pretty sure MPR will get there but i'm not sure about getting to loftier numbers like 500 million worldwide or better.

Good legs won't really make up for terrible opening though, hopes for a massive BATB like success are long gone. With a total cost of 200 million at minimum, it needs to gross around 400 million worldwide to break even. Domestic will be 140 million after this 18 million weekend. Giving it generous holds of 14, 11, 9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 2 for remaining weekends, gives us 57 million for weekends, then add in the proportional 33 million weekdays gives us 230 total domestic. To meet 400 million, MPR needs to double its foreign totals from 85 to 170 which it should do with more markets opening but the question is how far above 400 will it get?

lol this is locked for 300 no matter what barring some black swan event. 25 million gives it 255 million. It's gonna EASILY make 35 million just on weekends alone throughout the rest of its run with weekdays at 20-25 million. Blockbuster movies have really long tails after the big 2nd or 3rd weekend drop. 255 million after a 25 million weekend through Sunday. 13 million 8 million 5 million 3 million 2 million 1.5 million 2 million for the last few weekends of its run These conservative weekend totals give it 290 million. All you need is 10 million from 2 months+ worth of remaining weekdays. But given a much more likely 20 million minimum from weekdays, 310 million is also locked. The real fight happens between 310 - 330 million. 350+ is not out of the question either if the holds are better than expected.

lol Aquaman is locked for 300 million. It's gonna be over 240 AT MINIMUM by next Sunday. You have to be trolling if you think this won't make 60 million in the remaining 10 weeks of its box office run. lulz

LOL. Why are you calling yourself a fool? Or is this your mea culpa admitting you were dead wrong? It's ok bro, we've all been there. It takes guts to come clean and admit your failures. I give you credit.

Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle. Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross. But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop. The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences. Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time. Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed). But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals. Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys. And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel. This prediction is a toughie.

Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle. Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross. But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop. The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences. Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time. Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed). But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals. Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys. And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel. This prediction is a toughie.

Not really. $240 mill domestic, 740-750mil WW is much more than i could have ever dreamed for Maleficent. Beating DOFP and TASM everywhere, and beating CA2 WW, is just icing on the cake!!

+1000. Just a lot of butthurt from DOFP fanboys who still can't believe how well Maleficent has done. The top 3 movies of the summer will be TF4, Maleficent, and hopefully Apes, with DOFP and TASM nowhere in sight. And to add salt in their wounds, TF4 and Maleficent could very well take 1 and 2 in the WW box office standings until December.

Awesome numbers. Maleficent right on track to 238, kicking DOFP's overrated ass off to the curb in a few days domestically, and WW in a few weeks, with just a little help from Japan. lol.

This proves my point about Frozen and the idiotic decision to release the DVD so early in its run. The Japanese eyeballs that should have been plastered against the silver screen in a Toho cinema are now plastered against the LED TV at home.

Yep. My master plan is coming together: TF4, Apes, and Maleficent finishing top 3 for the summer. Hopefully, TF4 has enough juice to pass CA2 for #1 domestic - it's already obliterated DOFP and CA2 WW.

Dunno know about that. $230 million for DOFP sounds great, until you realize it cost 170 million to produce and probably another 90 million to market. Compare that to legit, original movies like Neighbors or Fault in Our Stars, which have ROI of 400-500%.

Frankly, they should. They're repetitive, boring, cliched, and totally unimaginative. Is anyone really going to shed a tear if CA 231283080480 doesn't get made? Or Iron Man 384023402308??

Do you all think this will outearn DOFP on a WW basis? DOFP is at 738 million WW currently. I guess the key is Japan (along with the US, with folks predicting this will earn about 12 million more to hit 240 million domestically).