DAJK

1. Oppenheimer 2. The Holdovers 3. Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 4. Barbie 5. Iron Claw 6. MI7 7. American Fiction 8. Dumb Money 9. All of Us Strangers 10. Poor Things 11. Totally Killer 12. Hunger Games 13. Spiderman 14. Blackberry 15. Air 16. Flash 17. Creed 18. Dream Scenario 19. Wonka 20. Anyone But You 21. Godzilla 22. Missing 23. The Color Purple 24. Past Lives 25. Dungeons & Dragons

FWIW, for the theater that I track that had both Wednesday early access for The Batman as well as Dune shows tonight, Dune was 70% higher than The Batman did for its early access on Wednesday. Mind you, this is Canada, where @charlie Jatinder has already said Dune will overindex.

Drive Away Dolls was amusing, but wasn’t particularly great beyond that. Like a joke you blow air out of your nose when you hear it. It’s not bad, but I’d only recommend it to people with a very specific sense of humour. It is kind of cool to compare it to Tragedy of MacBeth. Joel seems to make the colder, more meticulous, dramatic, and calculating films, whereas Ethan likes to have breezy fun. I didn’t particularly love either solo debut, but they both made me realize why the brothers work so well together. You need that dichotomy. Whereas MacBeth missed Ethan, Drive Away Dolls missed Joel. 2.5/5

One Love is NOT holding up well tonight, based on what I’m seeing at least. Hopefully it holds better in the US.

January Night Swim The Boys in the Boat American Fiction Mean Girls The Book of Clarence I.S.S. February Madame Web Argylle Bob Marley: One Love Total: 9

Lmao I thought that 1.8 number was for Ordinary Angels and I was like “oh my god…..”

Numbers for both non-Demon Slayer openers are so low that it’s hard to make any relevant prediction based on only a handful of select theaters. But if I had to guess, Ordinary Angels is doubling Drive Away Dolls by a healthy margin. Might go with 700-750k for Angels, and 300-350k for Dolls.

I made a tiktok talking about the movies in 2024 I thought would be bombs. I was right about Argylle, this isn’t looking too hot… Apes better be shaking in its books now

Just British Columbia, mostly Vancouver and Vancouver Island.

Yes. Dune Part 1 was massive in Canada. Equivalent to 80-100M openings at all the theaters I track.

I don’t know how sentiment in the US is but I sure want to see this. I could genuinely see this becoming a hit for A24, opening in the mid-20s range. That being said, if WOM is terrible it’ll collapse after that.

I for one would prefer a bunch of 50-100M grossers than a few mega blockbusters. Diversifying the types of films that can do well will mean studios will diversify the types of movies they make. Breakouts like One Love and Beekeeper are awesome for movie fans like us, even if we didn’t like the individual movies themselves.

Not sure what anyone else is seeing today, but at least at the theaters I’m tracking in British Columbia, both major openers are staying pretty flat today from yesterday, MAYBE 10% dips if late shows don’t hold up.

I was saying quite a bit back in 2021/2022 and it’s nice to see it coming to fruition, but the decline of Marvel doesn’t mean the decline of moviegoing. It’s like we learned in high school biology: in an ecosystem, when a species is in decline, something will ALWAYS come in to fill the niche. Right now, it feels like we haven’t FOUND what’s going to fill the Marvel niche yet, which means we’ll get a bit of everything turning into hits. But in a few years, something’s going to establish itself.

If ABY reaches 90M, it will have overtaken PiB The Last Wish’s multiplier. Seeing these 15x multipliers once per year is super refreshing.

5 years later I’m still surprised Rocketman didn’t make 100M. I’m chalking it up to the movie taking a musical approach to a dark subject matter, and not shying away from that subject matter and making a “concert movie”. Still the best if the musical biopics we’ve gotten recently.

Not sure if anyone is still following it, but Oppenheimer just passed It (2017) on the R-rated all-time list.

My comps came out a little weird, and all over the place tonight for both Webb and One Love tonight. Not sure what happened, why my data seems all over the place. Weather’s been all over the place in the different cities I’m tracking, so that could play a factor on why comps aren’t lining up the way they usually do. Comparing Friday to Thursday and Wednesday’s grosses, One Love at a handful of theatres is looking at 8.2M, 5.9M, and 5.7M Friday respectively. Averages out to 6.6 but that’s not the best method of trying to attain a number when my sample size is this small today. Oh well, I’m willing to go with Charlie’s number of 7-7.5M Friday. What I’m seeing doesn’t move the needle much. Web is also interesting. One location collapsed for it today, and would give me a 2M Friday if I followed it. Going to consider that one an outlier and use my regular 3 again. These, comparing Friday gross to Wed/Thurs, would give Web a 3.9M, 4.3M, and 4.7M Friday respectively at each of the three theaters. Still a bit all over the place, but they average out to 4.3M which is what I’m going to go with for my Friday forecast.

I don’t think there are ANY relevant memes about Madame Web. And I’m the resident tiktoker on these boards. Kraven will have a higher total than MW, I have zero doubt.

BR could “only” do 52M and that was arguably as big as these biopics get. Michael I have no doubt will have more interest, but I feel that the controversy it’ll inevitably cause could hold it back on OW, especially if the movie isn’t marketed as a “concert movie” like BR was.

My mom saw this. She was never a fan of Marley. Called me last night saying that her and her sister were on their way to the movies, but didn't know what to watch. It was "the Bob Marley movie or something about a spider web." They were leaning towards the spider web movie but once I told them it was a "superhero movie" they said no way, even thought they didn't really want to see One Love. She called me this morning telling me how much the movie made her cry. "I didn't realize just what a good person he was, and how young he was." So I guess even non-Marley fans can really enjoy this.

At this point I’m expecting Michael to open to something crazy like 80M and be an overseas monster.

Some theaters I track starting to wrap up ticket sales for the night. Pretty consistently, One Live is 2.9x higher than Madame Webb in tickets sold. But since Webb has PLFs and I assume higher ticket price, I would expect something closer to 2.3-2.5x higher for final gross. Webb wasn't particularly strong nor weak, although walkups were pretty decent. Wouldn't be surprised at anything between 5-6 for the day, although I'm not confident enough to pinpoint an exact number. Marley I guess if you were to try and peg a final number based on the above ^ that would give you anywhere from 12-15M. Again, wouldn't be surprised at anything within that range, although I'm leaning closer to 13-14 for now.

Walkups for One Love (for the matinees today) have been very, very solid. Only thing I can see killing it tonight is lack of capacity. Hopefully theaters are able to add enough additional shows. If capacity holds, I can see it hitting 13-14 today.

I loved the part where Morbius and Michael Keaton showed up and said “It has to do with Spider-Man I think, I’m still figuring out this place, what’s say you and I team up?” And then they Morb all over the place.