DAJK

Saw Trap tonight. Anecdotal but I pretty much hated it lol, there were a total of 6 people in my 7PM screening and I wasn’t the only one who disliked it. I dunno guys, I could really see this one crashing and burning if WOM is bad. It was probably cheap to make so it won’t be a bomb, but I could see 17-18 OW, 38-42 domestic.

I agree with this. But to play Devil’s advocate to your devil’s advocate, there could also be a “finally a good Alien movie” vibe, whereas getting a “good” Furiosa movie isn’t really anything special coming off of Fury Road. That being said, I’m still expecting 35-40M unless we really start to see some acceleration in the final few days.

Perhaps. I’ve mentioned before that the book is a genuine phenomenon among its demographic. That being said, I consider myself someone pretty well tapped in to the book crowd, and the book-tok crowd. The difference here being that It Ends With Us isn’t generally a well-regarded book amongst younger readers, and is moreso a “mom book”. And I can safely say as someone who was in the middle of all the hype both today and in 2014, that It Ends With Us has nowhere near the anticipation Fault did 10 years ago. That being said, Fault did open to an adjusted 63.5M. If It Ends With Us can open to half that, that would be very very strong.

I think this will do better than a lot of the doom and gloom I’ve seen about it on social media. But I think some of the theater geeks I know irl who say this “will be bigger than Barbie” are equally delulu. I think Gladiator will win this fight. But Wicked will probably still do decent numbers. I’m thinking around 50/175 run, no idea how strong it is OS, but Oz never really has been.

Looking ahead at August, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Alien: Romulus opens on par with (if not a bit higher?) than Covenant. Presales are really strong, and I mean really strong. I’m not just talking about Thursday night either. As long as the movie turns out to be good, I’m almost ready to board the 40M+ train. Similarly, It Ends With Us looks to be pretty strong. Not ready to predict a 50 Shades performance (that had the taboo factor) but the book is immensely popular with adult women, and Blake Lively is huge amongst Gen Z women. Fault in Our Stars did 8.6M previews, 26 OD, and 48 OW ten years ago. Massively frontloaded, but the movie was very good and it eventually developed legs (not something I can be so sure of for It Ends With Us based on what I’ve heard about the book but I digress). I’m willing to predict something like 5M previews, 15 OD, 30 OW, if not slightly higher. Borderlands looks like a dud but not a single digits dud. Still willing to go with 15/40 run. Trap I don’t think will be too 2 of the month but 23/60 isn’t unreasonable.

Really hope Deadpool cracks 200, and Twisters cracks 35. Is that too much to ask? Lol Just saw D&W for a second time (unplanned, got invited by a friend last minute). Holds up pretty well on second viewing. Audience seemed to be a lot more into it.

Wtf that is wild. America is weird

If Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien all hit 30M+ in August it will be a pretty decent month.

Twisters is really popping off on social media. I’m seeing a lot of memes “summer 2023” showing Cilian and Margot and “summer 2024” showing Powell and Jones. Also a lot of 4DX memes. Seems to be entering a mini zeitgeist.

Starting to think Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Roderick Rules won't show up. Oh well.

Not sure how popular this opinion will be but Sony should have opened It Ends With Us next weekend as counterprogramming to Deadpool. First of all, it’s the perfect counterprogrammer, plus it would get tons of free publicity from Reynolds/Lively combo. I would imagine quite a few tongue-in-cheek social media posts. Plus it would keep summer weekdays much longer.

I’m starting to come down a bit on this movie. I think it’ll be more of a Detective Pikachu than a Mario.

Banned. (I don’t actually disagree lol)

I’m gonna PM my list to Panda because I’m afraid of some of the reactions to a few of my more… unorthodox picks.

Tornadoes can form INSIDE massive hurricanes. Just saying…

Powell’s also got an A24 film that’s currently filming. Even if it’s not a box office hit, diversifying the resume is a solid career move. Work with different directors/studios, be able to appeal to different crowds (women, men, Letterboxd, etc.). Also there isn’t a ton of talk about DEJ, although I understand she wasn’t exactly the name that was being sold with Twisters. That being said, she’s also putting together a pretty solid resume, and has something coming up with Will Poulter and Jacob Elordi if I’m not mistaken(?). Good weekend for her too!

I’m still putting one together. There were some older movies I had planned to catch up on but never got around to, so it’s going to look like 90% top movies of the last 30 years lol…. And mostly ones I had grown up with or were somehow influential for me. Is Roderick Rules going to make an appearance? You bet.

Shouldn’t Passion 2 move up to Easter weekend? If not the weekend before?

I brought up the Pratt comparison yesterday, but I don’t think Powell is there yet. Say what you will about who “carried” the movies GOTG/Twisters/JW etc. there was a combination of brand/IP recognition, but also recognizability for both Pratt and Powell. If you really wanted to make the comparison, I’d say that Powell right now is where Pratt was in 2014. On the rise, has some hits to his name that weren’t necessarily HIS movies (GOTG/Twisters/LEGO etc.). If Powell plays his cards right, the next few years will be good to him.

A 75/225 run for this would be really good all things considered.

He’s arguably also the bigger “star” of the two right now. I’ve not seen the film, but I can see why he’d be more mentioned. He just came off ABY which was a tiktok phenomenon, Hit Man, which is keeping him in the discussion. Not that this is even remotely on the same scale, but kind of like how in Titanic there was Leo-mania, not Kate-mania even though Winslet was the top-billed lead (and heck, even got an Oscar nomination). Now I'm just thinking about Titanic lol. What a great film. I wish we could get a box office run like it again someday.

I mean, Chalamet definitely gives off “coastal star” while Powell is more “middle America star”. Room for both to coexist.

Is it too early to say that Glenn Powell is kind of starting to become this decade’s McConaughey? Or Chris Pratt? Not sure which one fits better, but either way I can see it. Kind of interesting how, when TGM came out, a lot of people I know were saying that this would be the beginning of the Miles Teller comeback. But since then, it’s Powell who’s really popped off.

No. I’m fully expecting previews to be frontloaded. The book has a big fanbase, and “book tok” is one of the most rabid fanbases that exist today. The Fault In Our Stars did something like 8.6M previews 10 (holy crap) years ago, 26 OD, and 48 OW. I think It Ends With Us will have somewhat of a similar front loaded multiplier. 4M previews, 12-13M OD, 24-25 OW. Multiplier after opening weekend could be solid if reception is good, but I don’t really see much beyond 75 DOM. Essentially, it’ll be another Crawdads, with a smaller total and bigger OW. Or heck, maybe I eat my words next month and this makes a billion dollars. Who knows?

The thing I’m noticing for Twisters is its strong final surge, which makes me think the weekend multi will be very strong (I’ve already talked about this). For the afternoon shows today that have already started, over 60-70% of the tickets were bought in the last hour before show start, which is unheard of in this day and age.