DAJK

I can definitely see It Ends With Us being a modest hit. Im not the target demo, but it’s the only remaining movie of 2024 that my mom wants to see, and she hasn’t even read the book. Also, love her work or hate it, Hoover is one of the biggest names in the online “book community” right now. It Ends With Us, even before the movie, has always been the only Hoover book I know by name. Has to count for something. I don’t know actual book sales, but I definitely think awareness for this can at least match that for Crawdads. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if this opens close to 20M and legs it out to 70+.

What I’ve been noticing about Twisters is that tonight seems pretty strong across every market I’m looking at (just scanning different theaters across Canada: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario), tomorrow is looking significantly weaker, but Friday and Saturday pick up big time. Other than that, the prairies are simply stronger than coastal markets overall. Same trends, just bigger numbers. Depending how much EA boosts Thursday’s #, I’m expecting this to have a pretty strong multiplier throughout the weekend.

Holy… 9.2 for DM4 according to The Numbers. Can that possibly be right??? 1 (1) Despicable Me 4 Universal $9,189,080 +60% -39% 4,449 $2,065 $224,993,050 14 - (5) Fly Me to the Moon Sony Pictures $1,415,000 +75% 3,356 $422 $11,627,283 5

I will say, I do remember the week leading up to the release of San Andreas 9 years ago (!!) and even a few days before it opened, some were saying that it could very well open in the mid-30s range. Then when the early Friday numbers came in that it was hitting 22-23 OD, there was a collective sigh of relief. Just saying, I really don’t think Twisters is dead until it actually opens. I understand that the box office is a different landscape today than it was in 2015, but there haven’t been very many disaster movies lately to use as great comps.

FWIW, Letterboxd seems to be really liking Twisters. Even if it suffers in its second weekend, I think it can have decent legs throughout late summer.

If theater owners are smart, they will schedule Twisters as the “spillover movie”. I did it all the time when I worked there. You have No Way Home at 6:00 and 7:00? Schedule something similar at 6:15 and 7:15 for when NWH sells out. Basically, they should schedule their Twisters shows 15 minutes after each Deadpool show. Also, this is a hindsight thing, and obviously I am happy Daisy Edgar Jones got the role, but I can’t help but think that Twisters would have done quite a bit better (at least among the younger crowd) if Sydney Sweeney had been cast instead. Capitalize on the Anyone But You train before the movie fades away, but not too soon that it’s annoying.

Good for it, but I can’t imagine appealing to older high schoolers/college kids is going to do much for the movie’s legs.

I said this a few weeks ago, and I’m still aware that “adjusting” international numbers is a futile exercise. But I still enjoy doing it just to put into context just how big certain movies were worldwide. For example, The Numbers has 2008’s Mamma Mia adjusted to 216M DOM from 144. If you similarly adjust the movie’s 550M intl gross, that puts it at 825(!)M overseas and over 1B WW. So technically, if they were released in 2024, we would have had 2 1B movies released on the same weekend with TDK and Mamma Mia. Goes to show how healthy the box office was in the late 2000’s.

I’m talking more generally across the boards, weekend threads, Disney threads etc. over the last year or so. I put my comment here though because it’s more relevant to this thread, and I wouldn’t be detailing the weekend thread. You could also find more examples of this across the internet. My intention isn’t to go after any one particular member on these boards, as I’m totally aware that people have their own reasons for saying what they are, and I’m not trying to intentionally call anyone my strawman. There’s just a general trend that I’ve been seeing, and it’s frustrating.

The amount of "just shelve it" being thrown around on here is ridiculous. Why on Earth would Disney do that? These live-action remakes have made them billions, and Snow White is arguably the most iconic in their Princess canon. Because some right-wing trolls are upset about the casting? Or have morphed the lead actress's (admittedly kinda dumb but also she's just a kid you guys) comments into some "woke Disney is after our traditional values" nonsense? I'm not expecting the movie to be great (most of these live-action remakes aren't). But I'd be shocked if it didn't make at least 150M domestic, probably more.

I wonder just how “young” of crowds people like ScarJo could even draw at this point. I get that Fly Me to the Moon isn’t targeting teenagers, but I had a disturbing interaction with some 16-17 year old students of mine about a month ago. Was trying to use a famous person as an example during a lesson, so I was tryna think of who the kids would know. I said Sydney Sweeney. They proceeded to tell me I was “showing my age” because she’s an “old people celebrity.” I asked them who they would know better and they said “Livy Dunne, Baby Gronk, or Kai Cenat.” I had no idea who any of those were.

Not gonna lie, I’d be a tad disappointed with “only” 7M true Friday for Longlegs given how it’s been performing around here.

Honestly I think the trailer looks pretty good. Gives me Winter Soldier vibes, which I think has been missing from Marvel lately. I’m fully okay with predicting Winter Soldier numbers for this too.

Do we know how many theaters are playing Longlegs previews tonight? Because if the 4 theaters I’m tracking for it tonight, only 1 is even playing it tonight. The three others all don’t start until tomorrow.

Sorry, is Shrek 5 actually dated? I'm also iffy on Avengers making that date. Masters of the Universe will probably bomb. (Not trying to be a negative Nancy), but also trying to keep my expectations in check.

Interesting that the trailer is selling it as a big-budget action flick. Probably what makes sense commercially, but the original Gladiator's an interesting one: it's a big-budget spectacle, an "Oscar winner", and is known as one of those "makes men cry" movies. I wasn't sure what angle they were going to lean towards with the marketing, but I think putting something out that's explosive like this makes more sense. I do think they'll need to diversify their marketing moving forward. Sell the sword-and-sandals epic. Sell the "sexy men". But don't forget to also sell the story, the SCORE, etc. Next trailer should definitely lean more story-heavy. Have the callbacks to the original, lay out what the actual plot is, and by God PLEASE include some of that Zimmer score. FWIW, I think this will do better than Indy 5. My heart wants this to be a 400M+ movie, but realistically for now I'm comfortable with predicting 65/220 for this. (And for the record, I'm going with 40/150 for Wicked.)

@Shawn Robbins any update on Longlegs? Just curious since it’s only been on my radar for 20 minutes lol.

Yea I don’t think Fly Me To The Moon is hitting double digits. Shame, I think it looks good. Hadn’t bothered even looking at Longlegs until today. And all I can say woah… unless this is massively frontloaded, I don’t see why this can’t do Don’t Worry Darling numbers. The low theater count could hurt it, but based on these presales 20M doesn’t seem out of the question.

This looks awesome haha

They definitely did. At least where I live (I only tracked my locals back then, I didn’t have my full handful of comps).

Being in Vancouver this past week it’s kinda crazy how EVERYWHERE the marketing for Deadpool & Wolverine is here. It’s everywhere, and people love it. I expect it to do very well in my neck of the woods.

I mean hey, I’m sure a lot of us grew up at the movie theater. I know I did. Was my high school/college job, my whole tiktok was created because of it. I genuinely wouldn’t be the person I am without movie theaters. So if it takes a Disney sequel and the 9000th Minions movie to give them a shot in the arm, I’m all for it.

Um EXCUUUUSEE MEEEEE (also young white guys)

I know adjusting OS $ doesn't work the same way as domestic, and to do so would be a futile attempt at box office "analysis". HOWEVER Just to give some context for how massive these movies were, Ice Age 3's domestic total (according to The Numbers' adjuster) goes from $196 to $282 (just imagine that for a second... that thing grossed almost 300M domestic adjusted). If you apply that same adjustment to its 690 OS total, that would give 992M OS. Which again... adjusting intl numbers does not work the same way as it does for domestic numbers but still: that is INSANE. I'm all on board with the "if they made another Ice Age and did it right it would be huge" sentiment.

I do feel to some capacity that Dune has seen most of the growth it’s going to get. I said this about Across the Spiderverse, but I think that film WAS that series’ “Dark Knight” moment. I don’t really see Beyond having a similar bump to 500 DOM / 1B WW, same way I don’t see Dune Messiah doing 350+/1B.