misafeco

In what universe? It will do close to 480M DOM from a 130M OW.

Family movies with more evening showtimes tend to drop more than 55%, those which are later in their run drop around 50%. 2019: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2019-02-03/?ref_=bo_di_table_332 2018: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2018-02-04/?ref_=bo_di_table_331 2017: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2017-02-05/?ref_=bo_rl_table_75

It was over F2 for the last 2 weekends. Next weekend it will overtake TROS, no doubt.

TROS 7th weekend is 75% of TLJ's 7th weekend. If it follows the path of TLJ it will make another 7.5M to finish at 514.5M. Although we have to consider that TLJ had Super Bowl one week later in its run, so it probably dropped bigger on 8th weekend than TROS will next weekend. Maybe 515M-516M finish?

No, he wasn't. He was complaining about the English doing everything by the book, after they were ordered to leave their apartman (it was not at the beginning though, I didn't remember this detail too well). He never mentioned the Irish.

The social commentary was obviously not the focus, but still I consider it quite nuanced for a big budget disaster movie. At the dinner with Jack most of them were curious rather than looking down on him. Except the two I already mentioned, but they also had their reasons not to trust/like him. It's the same with the wealthy family in Parasite, they are decent people but ignorant to many things not affecting them. The difference is that Titanic has way less focus on these things. Still at the end, human decency is not determined by class as it does a very good job at showing how people react to the inevitable sinking differently regardless of their social status. Wasn't Billy Zane portraying an American though? I remember him making fun of Brits at the beginning of the movie. Rose's mother even asked him not to disrespect them.

Offtopic, but I don't think Titanic is a good example of a one note portrayal of the different classes. While it is taking the side of the poor people during most of the movie, it isn't black and white in my opinion. Most of the wealthy people on the ship is not portrayed evil at all. Kathy Bates's character (although she is "new money") is one major example. There is the old couple dying in each others arms. Multiple rich men refusing to take the women and children's place in the lifeboats and facing death like champs. Cal Hockley is probably the only unredeemable character. Even Rose's mother is portrayed as someone who is just out of touch with the reality and at the same time trying to preserve the good life of the family. Selfish, but not evil. I liked that there were heros and grey characters among the 1st class & 3rd class passengers and the crew as well.

Poor physics is getting raped again. He will be the lead good guy in the next I assume.

So we are at 1.42B WW after Sunday. DOM will add 7-8M, OS maybe 20-25M (?). 1.45B total.

Brilliant artwork! Source: https://www.deviantart.com/ruro95/art/Frozen-1-2-Anna-and-Anna-Fan-art-826257520

You want to bet on it? I would say 510 million is locked.

A decent try. What does the bold part mean? My point was that a good movie's plot doesn't need to be complicated. For me mostly the execution, characters, nailing the key moments is what makes a great film. One of my all time favorites is just about 12 men arguing in a room.

Better to compare to a year with the exact same calendar: 2013 Jan 24 Friday https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2014-01-24/?ref_=bo_rl_table_64 Ride Along: +262.2% The Nut Job: +292.1% Frozen: +211.8% Devil's Due: +203.4% The actual good news for Jumanji is that the weekly drop is just 21.8% which is the best drop in the top 10 after Knives Out.

I would be disappointed with only 2.275M weekend. Both Saturday increase and Sunday drop should be better than your estimate. -40% on Sunday would be plain terrible. At least 2.4M should happen.

You're entitled to your wrong opinion on the first movie. While it was straightforward like what you would expect from Disney Animation, I wouldn't call the plot 'simple'. Simple enough for kids to follow (is that a bad thing?), but if you dig deeper, there are so much more to it! And I would say the ending is misunderstood by a lot of people who think the act of true love was performed by Elsa. I challenge you to summarize the full plot of Frozen 1 in one sentence. Example: The Lion King: "Evil lion kills the king to become the new ruler, but the son of the dead king returns from his exile to revenge his father and reclaim the throne." I left out the details of Mufasa's death and what brought Simba back, but this summarizes the movie pretty well.

Good Friday jump for TROS actually. TLJ crossed the 600M mark on the comparable post MLK weekend and TROS will cross 500M on the same weekend. TLJ added another ~16M, the same late legs would make TROS finish around 513-514M (2.3x multiplier from a 5.2M weekend).

It's interesting that Disney Animation is moving away from the hero vs. villain formula. In the 2010s in most films there was a twist villain at the end (Wreck-it Ralph, Frozen, Zootopia) or no major villain at all (Moana, Ralph 2, Frozen 2). I'm fine with it as it allows creating more complex/grey heros and also allows making their relationship with the other protagonist(s) more interesting. It definitely worked in the first Frozen. Hans was only a tool to create a dramatic ending, where Anna had to choose between her own life and her sister's life. Making him the villain from the start would've been a mistake as the conflict is revolving around Anna & Elsa both flawed persons with good intentions. I feel the same about Frozen 2. It's a story about growing up (similar to Moana in this regard) and these kind of stories don't require a villain. It already had a big main cast basically fighting for screen time so the movie didn't even try building up new characters (not counting the parents who had just a tiny part in the original).

Even with the outstanding success of the first Frozen, we couldn't possibly know if it was an outlier never to be matched by a sequel or just the start of something big. There is some precedent for sequel increasing from breakout original, but not on this level of success. Incredibles 2 is probably the only comparable example from the 2010s, but that had 15 years between the two installments. So while the potential was certainly there for F2 to make even more, we can say that it has already exceeded most expectations and it is rightfully considered as one of the big success stories of last year. I think we and most people here can agree on that. To be honest I don't think your and @cdsacken's opinion is that different on this topic.

So F2's 9th week is around 84% of Moana's 9th week. Moana made additional 14.5M, 84% of that is roughly 12M. I'll assume F2 drops will be somewhat bigger, so a little more than 10M is left in the tank to a 477M+ finish.

It would require 1B+ OS, as DOM is not going to reach 480M. 1440-1450M is doable.

That's a terrible comparison. Solo had a budget rivaling the most expensive blockbusters. This one's cost will not even be in the ballpark of the already cheap (by blockbuster standards) THG sequels. For a 75M budget even 200M WW is a success. Let's get back to this topic when we have more information, until then it's only blind speculation. With zero knowledge it's a bit premature to state it will bomb, don't you think?

It's quite early to guess the box office, as we know basically nothing about the project. Although for me it's hard to imagine a flop if they will be able to keep the production budget reasonable (like in the 50-100M range).

So just for fun, I asked every close family member who has seen both Frozen movies to grade them 1-10. Here are the results based on a decent sized sample (11 people including me). Total average (male average / female average) F1: 7.8 (7.5 / 8.2) F2: 6.9 (6.8 / 7.0) Most of us placed F2 one point below F1. Two people placed F2 more than one point below F2 (by 4&2 points). Two people preferred F2 over F1 (by 2&1 points). Average age is around 23 years, so we are not exactly the target demo of Disney Animation. Still Frozen is obviously way more 4-quadrant than anything else Disney produced in the last decade. It has more mature themes and more complex characters while it's still appealing to children.

Billy Zane will return as Cal Hockley. And of course we need a Kate Winslet cameo as well.

They absolutely do. I didn't expect my family to like it this much. None of them are fans of the original movie, they mostly think it's pretty good.