misafeco

All sequels owe a lot to their predecessors's goodwill, that's why they are usually made in the first place. It doesn't mean they cannot drop. It's still quite rare that a sequel of a 400+M DOM grosser is increasing. Frozen is the box office king of animation, the fact that F2 is increasing by 150M+ was not too evident before release. Most people here expected it to drop WW. It will be interesting to see if F3 can follow the same pattern. That will be the true test of the franchise's reception.

There is a possibility the movie would flop even harder with a different actor. Maybe RDJ saved Dolittle of becoming one of the biggest flops of all time.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl755467777/?ref_=bo_hm_rd

*One week.

They should just film Dolittle with every single successful actor as the title character and send the completed products to cinemas at the same time. Then we can find out who wins. He/she will be the ultimate Box Office Draw.

DOM is way too opimistic. It's not likely that it goes over 485M, I would say 480-482M is the most likely final gross. I can comment on Hungary, it's spot on. Your earlier 2.5-3.5 was also an amazing guess.

It is heading to 480M DOM currently. WW around 1.45B.

F2 vs. F1: F1 F2 % F2 total Wk1 26,54 202,87 764,4% 202,87 Wk2 76,10 100,06 131,5% 302,92 Wk3 39,57 44,44 112,3% 347,36 Wk4 30,19 26,87 89,0% 374,23 Wk5 47,13 30,56 64,8% 404,79 Wk6 57,59 33,79 58,7% 438,59 Wk7 25,47 15,04 59,0% 453,62 Wk8 18,04 7,51 41,6% 461,13 Wk9 18,15 6,40 35,3% 467,53 Wk10 11,92 3,50 29,4% 471,03 Rest 50,00 11,00 22,0% 482,03 Moana can be a better comparison at this point. Frozen 2's 8th weekend (5.91M) is very close to Moana's 7th weekend (6.38M). After MLK/8th weekend Moana added another 15M, F2 will be a bit over 465M after next Monday, so 480M can be achieved with an identical run after MLK Monday. I don't expect a big theater drop this weekend for F2, while Moana was already down to 1847 according to Mojo. It had amazing holds considering the direct competition from Sing and from early February Lego Batman.

In a year when 8 other movies already reached this milestone it sure becomes boring.

Okay, this is hilarious.

This was a great movie, definitely top 3 of the year for me (and I never was a big fan of crime films). Totally worth watching on the big screen.

Best Animated Feature is a joke of a category, never had any prestige and never will. It's like the Academy saying: "You are not good enough for Best Picture, here is some consolation prize." Maybe for smaller movies it is an opportunity to get some attention, but for major studios it hardly matters at all. The worst thing about this category's existence that it's one of the main reasons animation has no chance now in the Best Picture category. I know about Up and Toy Story 3, but it was in a different voting system with 10 guaranteed nominees. If Inside Out didn't get a Best Pic nomination, then you know that something went super wrong. This snub is probably not bad news for Disney, they can now push Toy Story 4 for the win. It should win against the unremarkable HTTYD3 (I already forgot what that movie was about). The smaller ones will cannibalize eachother. F2 will also be fine in the longer run, it doesn't need more spotlight than what it already gets. I have the same feelings about Toy Story 4. It's a very good individual movie, just not a very good Toy Story movie. 3rd one already had the perfect ending, there was no reason from a storytelling point of view to continue. About Into the Unknown: I think I appreciate it way more now than at the beginning. For maximum effect I just put on my earphones, start the song and increase the volume to the max while walking on the street. A great feeling. Still prefer a couple of other songs from F2 to it, but without the context of the movie it's still the 2nd best for me after Show Yourself.

Damn, I'm good at this. Predicted the same number after the Sat # from Charlie came in. Revised estimated total: F1 F2 % F2 total Wk1 26,54 202,87 764,4% 202,87 Wk2 76,10 100,06 131,5% 302,92 Wk3 39,57 44,44 112,3% 347,36 Wk4 30,19 26,87 89,0% 374,23 Wk5 47,13 30,56 64,8% 404,79 Wk6 57,59 33,79 58,7% 438,59 Wk7 25,47 15,04 59,0% 453,62 Wk8 18,04 7,10 39,4% 460,72 Wk9 18,15 5,90 32,5% 466,62 Wk10 11,92 3,20 26,8% 469,82 Rest 50,00 11,00 22,0% 480,82

Give me movies with women leads and a promising concept and I'll show up. Make these characters interesting and/or relatable and I'll give a thumbs up. It's that simple. Actually half of my favorite movies of this decade has a female lead. I watched Lady Bird on opening week with friends and thought it was a very good movie. Can't say I'm very excited about Little Women, looks like standard Oscar bait riding the waves of the feminist movement in Hollywood. Might be wrong, I'll check it out eventually. Probably the biggest reason why I stopped caring about the Oscars is the politics surrounding it. It's toxic, someone is always offended, and people are talking about anything but the wonderful movies cinema offers us. Which would be the whole point of these award shows, offering something different than casual movies to the general public and celebrating the achievements of filmmaking.

It was around 50% of F1 on Wed&Thu. F1 made another 100M after that point of its run, so F2 needed to basically keep the place until the end of its run. I will be happy with anything over 480M. Will post my revised calculation later.

CATS lost a couple of theaters.

F2 +126.2% from Friday, in line with my expectations. 30% drop on Sunday would make the weekend number 5.9-6.0.

Wasn't Boyhood the frontrunner for Best Picture though? I remember being pissed off that it didn't win, I thought it had a very good chance. La La Land's fate was the worst though, I was so happy that my favorite movie of the year won, then that fiasco happened... I haven't watched the Oscars since then.

I get 5.8 with +120% Sat & -30% Sun using the weekend patterns of F1 vs. F2. F1's Friday jumps were always much bigger, so this Fri number for F2 is reasonable if somewhat underwhelming. Big theater drop didn't help it either. Sat jump should be close to F1's +129% and Sun will be likely better than -37.3%.

What if it follows American Sniper? 54.74M opening weekend.

Wednesday's gross is almost exactly 50% of what F1 made on the same day. It will probably fall below during the weekend. Considering F1 made 98M after this point of its run, F2 would basically need to keep the pace for the rest of its run to get to 500M. F1 had some incredible Jan-Feb holds so I would say it's dead. I made some calculations based on the weekly grosses. F1 F2 % F2 total Wk1 26,54 202,87 764,4% 202,87 Wk2 76,10 100,06 131,5% 302,92 Wk3 39,57 44,44 112,3% 347,36 Wk4 30,19 26,87 89,0% 374,23 Wk5 47,13 30,56 64,8% 404,79 Wk6 57,59 33,79 58,7% 438,59 Wk7 25,47 15,04 59,0% 453,62 Wk8 18,04 8,80 48,8% 462,42 Wk9 18,15 7,10 39,1% 469,52 Wk10 11,92 4,20 35,2% 473,72 Rest 50,00 14,00 28,0% 485,72 This week (Wk7) was actually pretty decent, F2 managed to drop smaller week to week compared to F1 thanks to the strong weekend performance. Let's see how the next wide releases and expansions will effect this weekend. There is no new direct competition, but theater loss will be inevitable. On the bright side, it made tons of money and beat F1's already amazing performance due to the huge headstart. Found the appropriate gif:

Based on what? F2 has very similar daily increase Mon-Tue compared to F1 and still makes >55% of F1 daily (which added another 100M after this Tuesday). It will likely end in the 480-490M range DOM. OS is 876M after Sunday, let's say DOM adds another 30M, do you believe OS will barely make 42M coming off a 43M international weekend? Japan+Brazil should easily cover that alone. Relax and enjoy the historical run of the biggest animated movie of all time.

Show Yourself gets an instant like from me. Btw. I started learning All Is Found on piano. It's such a beautiful song! I was playing the instrument for 6 years, I feel a little bit rusty, but will get there. Left hand movements are tough even with a much slower speed.

Me seeing Frozen 2 breaking the animated WW record Disney is like: You are the number I've been waiting for!

Frozen 2 vs. Frozen Mon-Fri weekdays this week F2 F1 % Mon 4,422 7,898 56,0% Tue 4,04 7,076 57,1% Wed 5,029 8,718 57,7% Thu 3,411 5,305 64,3% Fri 3,927 6,752 58,2% 11M weekend (and almost 450M total after Sunday) looks feasible if this estimate doesn't drop. If F2 follows F1's Sat incr. (+19%) & Sun drop (-40.5%), it would make 4.67M Sat, 2.78 Sun (11.38 WE). It's hard to predict how the next couple of weeks will play out. F1 made another 104M after this WE, for F2 30-40M would be a reasonable scenario. I wouldn't say 500M is dead, but highly unlikely at this point.