Before we get too wrapped up in the OW numbers, it's important to ask the real question:
What's going to happen when Frozen II Sing-a-long gets released?
Does the 37-42M Friday number include the previews? It seems kind of low if it does (only 6M over IO? Really?)
(Nevermind, just saw that it does. Minions doesn't have a chance at beating Shrek 3's record if it only does $40M on Friday)
This isn't entirely wrong (people do underestimate the other characters) but the Minions are the cornerstone of the franchise's success and the Minions movie is going to introduce new human characters who might be just as appealing as the old ones.
Disney and especially Pixar's movies really aren't any less sophisticated than the foreign animated movies. WALL-E and Frozen are at the same level as Miyazaki's films IMO (but let's see Stanton and Jen Lee direct ten movies and have them all be as great.)
Almost definitely will, if the Deadline numbers match the actuals then Jurassic Park will have technically won Friday (subtracting IO's Thursday previews)
I don't think it's likely to open over TS3...even if it comes near or matches its Friday you have to remember that TS3 didn't have 7PM Thursday previews.
But then I've been consistently underestimating IO (even though I love it.)