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Everything posted by POTUS

  1. NSD PS still going up over 20% daily. PS total may exceed 100m. 300m OD possible if it has enough shows
  2. Apes definitely skewing older with a later midpoint due to strong evenings and just a -62% drop from sunday. Could hold -15% tomorrow and leading to close to 40m on Friday, double SMH's second Friday. $120m+ certain if it drops -15% or better. China top ten this year will have no toons or tights. Domestic top ten will be nearly all toons and tights
  3. I think it holds a little better. Less of an OW rush than an SH movie and skewing older. Thursday BO could be close. SMH fell 18% to to 20m on Friday with 60% show loss. Apes should bump 30% into the 30s with just 25% of shows taken away. HBG looking to open under 20m. Apes will be 75m behind SMH on thursday. It should gain 30m+ on the weekend, gain 45m+ by next saturday when the holiday starts. If it has 5% of shows and can make 10m per day thru the 7th, it'll beat SMH. Three releases will be significant out of several. Friday City of rock 30-40m Saturday The Foreigner 100m+ Never Say Die 200m+
  4. $5.5m more m-th for a $19.5m week. It could hold -60% next week for another 7.5m bring the total to $117.5m. It'll lose some shows Fri then 90% will be gone on Saturday. It could crawl to $120m during the holiday.
  5. lol 7.4 Rating 24m OW 430k 2ndW -98.2% no mercy Apes heading to 170m+, 180m if walkups/evenings are strong again. $64-68m OW. $120-$130m total expected SMH will bump 100%+ to 40m+ for a 90m/$13.5m weekend -81%, $115m still the target Edit. Looking more like 160m
  6. out of 10 nearly all movies on Maoyan fall between 7.5 to 9.5. you can categorize into 5 stars this way ***** 9.6+ very rare, 1 in a hundred, could increase the following weekend to a -40% hold **** 9.0-9.5 very good WoM could hold -0 to -60% second weekend depending on competition *** 8.5-8.9 is good -60-70% ** 8.0-8.4 meh -70-85% * 7.5-7.9 shyte -85-95% - <7.5 also rare, super shyte could drop 98%
  7. Never say die PS at 4.1m 13 days out. Will reach 60-100m in PS
  8. Walk ups were amazing. Even 9-10pm didnt fall off as much as usual.
  9. Apes evening very strong. Hourly at 130% of afternoon runrate. 115-120m OD. 4.4x PS. Never seen it that high and the rating is only 8.2. $57-60m OW. It should have a stronger monday hold than spidey as it skews older and could pull close to 2x with a good hold next weekend with small competition and smaller screen loss. Second weekend will be larger than SMH should it hold -65% It will be in a tight race with spidey $110-120m total I think Apes wins
  10. player sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/145ufEFUFaKLqTcbppxBIF3LkvmC5Rb3xoIgZUMZlry4/edit?usp=sharing
  11. Yup. At least 4 releases on Friday and Saturday before monday holiday start. Never Say Die is already at 3.5m PS at 14 days out. SMH will have 1%, Apes might a few percent. Apes might pull off 4x PS today and get to 108m. Just an 8.2 rating though.
  12. $12m for the weekend sounds right. Another $5m for the midweek. Should hold better next week with weak competition making $7-8m for the week. Doubt it makes much more after week 3. $115m, maybe a couple mil more Apes will get through ¥100m today. At least a ¥340m/$52m weekend.
  13. Apes PS finishing at 27m SMH multi was 3.66. 99m OD. 336m/$51.5m OW +/-8% Hitman BG PS just started with160k, 5k shows listed for next friday
  14. Apes wont have competition its second weekend, should hold better as long as its rating isnt under 8. SMH PS going to be down 30% for Friday Might be 17-19m friday. 80m weekend -82%. 775m total $118m
  15. Its probably going to be in the $120m's Lets see the friday number.
  16. That drop doesnt bode well for $140m.
  17. Apes PS may get up 50% today to 11m heading to a 28m total. 100m+ OD 340m/$53m+ weekend incoming. I now think it can reach 650m/$100m. It should have a few % of shows from the 29th(3rd weekend) thru the 8th and could make 5m per day with the weekend then holiday crowd for 11 days to get it over $100m, even to $110m as long as it doesn't have a 7.5 rating
  18. Monday is listed above 41m. Tuesday looking like 35-36m. Standard DoD drop SMH will get to 595m/$92m on Thursday. It might take a 75% hit this weekend and make just 115m, 150m for the week thru next Thursday. Total 745m/$115m The following weekend is light before the holiday and could hold -60%. 805m/$125m total when the holiday releases start. If it could hold -65% against apes then it would reach 900m/$140m when the holiday films start. I doubt it makes more than $5m during the holiday. $120-140m depending on Fridays hold. Thursday will make 26m. W/O competition it would've bumped 40% to 38m on friday. With apes(PS getting strong $50-55m OW) it could be flat DoD at 26m to just 30m. It will need 33m on friday to reach $140m gross
  19. PS suggesting $48-50m OW. It will only have 2 weekends before a few local movies open for the oct 1 holiday. $80-90m
  20. @Olive august numbers? Thanks
  21. Apes will get to 7.5m tonight. Should go up T-W-Th × 1.4 × 1.4 ×1.75=25.7m PS. SMH PS multi was 3.66. 94m OD 320/$49.3m OW +/-5% @Olive are the holiday releases starting on Friday sept 29 or mon oct 1?
  22. 65-70% is the norm for this demo. Better than 60% is big WoM spillover. Worse than 70% is tanking on bad WoM. Welcome to the forum
  23. Too many seats now on OW. In domestic a $150m OW will get 12k screens out of 40k. Spidey had 50% of 44k screens in china. They rush to see films, <2x will become common. FF8 fell short of 2x and its the biggest HLWD movie at CBO. Whereas the top 3 grossers of the last 5 years in Domestic SW7 JW and TA were all 3x+, greater than the norm. SMH could be as low as 1.8, 2 possible. Apes looking to open at $50m. Not huge but could help cause a 75%+ drop for SMH
  24. 5pm should be the midpoint again with school back in. 42m down the standard 68%
  25. Nope. Two days later PS were suggesting $75m, this weekend it crashed against spidey and will just get to $50m

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