OncomingStorm93
-
Posts
2,052 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by OncomingStorm93
-
-
Yeah, and last night The Batman was going to push through.
-
11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
50% just now. Yeh it isn’t going fresh. But not a Grudge/Turning/Boy/Fantasy either. Phew.
I kind of feel like 50% is the absolutely perfect score for this film. Something that just divides audiences down the middle.
-
1
-
-
Just now, Arendelle Legion said:
2022 looking AM3, BP2, CM2, Blade. GotG3 will probably have 15-20 or so months of separation from Thor.
Captain Marvel 2 doesn't even have a director yet. I don't believe a writer or director has been attached to Blade yet either. Guardians 3's script should be ready to go, and it was already a high priority for Disney given they initially wanted it out this summer (shooting was planned for early 2019). Also, Guardians 2/Thor 3 only released 5 or 6 months apart. No need to separate them over a year, won't have a market impact either way.
-
I would rather Love and Thunder under-use the Guardians, not over-use. We should be getting Guardians 3 probably within a year or at the year mark of Love and Thunder. Their role should be like Doctor Strange in Ragnarok, or Falcon in Ant-Man. Keep it short and sweet.
-
I must say, this delay really hurts Peter Rabbit's shot at breaking $200m OW.
-
1
-
-
Move over, Christmas in July. We've got Easter in August now!
-
1
-
-
It strikes mas as odd that they filmed this two years out. With principal photography taking place during NBA off-season this past summer, this should have been primed for release this summer or fall. NBA landscape may look quite different in the summer of 2021 compared to when they filmed.
-
7 minutes ago, John Marston said:
If Mulan flops Black Widow is moving.
At this point, I feel confident in saying that Mulan's opening weekend domestic, if it still happens in 19 days, will be below Onward's OW. Based on the available data, we should have somewhere around 10,000-15,000 diagnosed cases across the country by that point, and that's the floor. Given how little testing we have now, it's impossible to know how many cases are circulating at the moment, which would translate into disproportionately (compared to nations with full testing capability) higher rates cases being found (once those undiagnosed cases translate into diagnosed community spread).
So yeah, I'm ballparking 10k-15k cases diagnosed by the time Mulan is scheduled to release.
Who wants to guess how that would affect the box office? My prognosis: Muy no bueno.
-
2
-
-
That Onward international number should be a Gatorade-bath of a wake up call for those who were saying a week ago that this is a minor issue.
This upcoming week will see enormous spikes in reported cases across America. Next week it should really start to hit our box office. If Disney insists on releasing Mulan in three weeks, which I doubt will happen, it will crash, hard.
-
2
-
-
Realistically, Warner Bros. doesn't need to make a decision about delaying this film until early May. There is no rush. Let's see where things are two months from now. If WW84 were releasing, let's say around Easter, it's a conversation that would be happening right now.
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:
Corona exploded in America weeks ago. Testing is exploding this weekend.
Testing isn’t close to exploding yet. We are still woefully behind the curve. Maybe later next week.
-
31 minutes ago, a2k said:
Onward looked too off and unrelatable to me. It's idiosyncrasies didn't all come together. People used to ask about Cars - headlights as eyes vs being on the windshield, speed/performance being dependent on engine/body parts vs will power/emotions, etc - but those things didn't bother me much. Onward's universe seems just too weird for the heck of it.
My issue with Onward is the opposite, it's not weird enough. Take away the layer of fantasy, it's just a family road trip comedy (on the surface). Pixar could have gotten much weirder with this world, but the story they chose to tell seems somewhat conventional. More conventional than Pixar usually dreams up.
-
1
-
-
Looking at the fairly standard drops for February’s lineup, I’d agree that Coronavirus hasn’t had an impact at the box office yet. Still a ways to go until Mulan arrives...
-
7 minutes ago, dudalb said:
I don't want to sound flippant about the Corona virus but it has given a Get Out Of Jail Free card for studio management for every film that flops for the next couple of months at least: at the stockholders meetings, they can blame it on the virus.
It’s not a “get out of jail free” card when the lasting impact the Coronavirus leaves on the economy, in addition to the acceleration of the decline of general moviegoing/shift to home streaming that will come from the virus, all results in a natural contraction of the cinema industry.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, TMP said:
Joaquin should be the bad guy in Dr Strange 3
One better: Multiverse of Madness should take us to a dimension where Joaquin is Strange, for a joke cameo.
-
Onward never felt like a Pixar film to me. Felt like a WDA script that got shipped to Pixar.
The question becomes, if this were produced by WDA, would the box office result be different?
i don’t think so.
As for coronavirus impact, the threshold I’m looking at is $39m, which seas The Good Dinosaur’s first weekend. Granted, Good Dinosaur opened on a Wednesday, but I’ve always thought that Onward had enough going for it that it should clear Good Dinosaur no problem. If this can’t cross $40m, despite the might of Disney, very popular voice actors, and the lack of recent animated family entertainment, I’d say it’s clear that some people are already avoiding theaters.
-
Per CDC, we are now up to 205 cases.
Up from 111 yesterday.
Up from 57 on Monday.
Up from 14 a week ago.
Do the math people. The outbreak is here. We just can't tell how large it really is because of the lack of testing ability. We're still not even close to where we need to be in testing capability.
At minimum, we have 1,000 confirmed cases a week from now. At the absolute, bare-fucking-minimum. By the time Mulan is scheduled to release? Well, we don't have enough data yet to predict 3 weeks out, but going off of the growth in Italy and South Korea, we should have 4,000+ cases diagnosed, again at the absolute minimum, in two weeks from now.
The only reassuring factor in that calculation is that America's population trounces those nations by any given metric, so it will be a much smaller portion of the population affected than in those countries.
But thousands of cases are still thousands of cases. And people will notice. People will stay home. No one wants to get sick, but even more importantly, no one wants to get sick and then be responsible for exposing their loved ones to this.
Anyone who doesn't think this is a big deal. Anyone who thinks we won't see impacts for a number of weeks. Wake up. Mulan isn't opening to anything close to $85m. Not even close.
-
3
-
-
11 minutes ago, filmlover said:
But this applies to all businesses though, not just movie theaters. You're no more likely to come in contact with someone potentially with Coronavirus going to the movies than you are grocery shopping or going to the mall or...you get the picture. And nobody is suddenly gonna put everything on hold for a hypothetical doomsday scenario unless it actually happens because people gotta put food on the table.
We'll have a better idea of what the impact could be over the next few weeks because we have movies coming out that are expected to bring in huge amounts of crowds. So far, there hasn't been any notable impact.
Yes, it will affect all businesses.
No, we don’t have the data yet that shows a domestic impact. But that’s not data we would expect at this point. Don’t read into data that doesn’t exist.
Yes, we have the data that shows 70%-80% weekend to weekend drops in Italy and Souty Korea’s first weekend after their outbreaks took hold.
Yes, America is far behind both those countries in Coronavirus testing capability. We probably have hundreds of undiagnosed cases at the moment, and who knows who those people are infecting.
A spiraling outbreak + the lack of testing capability + another 7 days of this when the amount of known cases is doubling every 2-3 days currently = only god knows how bad this is going to get.
I don’t think the impacts will be felt much this weekend. I’m expecting next weekend is when the tank begins.
-
23 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Cinemas will only start to shut down if it reaches the point where other businesses start to shut down (that hasn't happened yet). In that Variety article yesterday after the Bond move ( https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-movie-theater-closure-1203523653/ ) it was mentioned how at worst they expected only a couple of regions to close down, which isn't enough to delay a movie (and also because Disney isn't in the same position as MGM).
That article quotes the movie theater companies as saying they don't expect mass closures.
What else do you expect the AMC CEO to say on a conference call with investors?
They will be in "no problem, nothing to see here" mode until they are shouting it from the hospital beds.
Movie theaters don't need to close for audiences to start avoiding them.
34 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:Edit: Also Germany boxoffice hasn't collapsed yet eventhough there are over 300 cases there so maybe moviegoing here won't be affected unless the government actually shuts cinemas down or a bit later into its run when confirmed cases gets enormous (like thousands)?
Germany only had 50 confirmed cases when last weekend began.
Yesterday they had 250 confirmed. Today, 400 confirmed.
So lets not pretend that we have the data to assume the impact at the German box office yet. Lets see what this weekend looks like.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Napoleon said:
we don't even know if things we'll be better in the future, this virus could very well evolve and kills billions.
Even for me, that's far too pessimistic. I consider myself a realist. This isn't the end of society. It's definitely one of the biggest obstacles society will face, and the fallout is going to be absolutely brutal, but this isn't the end of the world. It is possible to (relatively) keep this controlled.
South Korea for instance, the % of cases found has decreased every day for the past 6 days. Granted, they are still reporting hundereds of cases daily, but the exponential increase is being managed. Because they got ahead of the problem. Singapore too, it could have spiraled out of control after the Church outbreak, but the government was two steps ahead. Despite having the 2nd most cases a couple weeks back, now they aren't even in the top 10 (if you count the Diamond Princess as a country, as I guess world officials do).
Unfortunately, America will be one of the harder hit nations in the world, because of how far behind the ball we were in prep.
But this isn't the end of life as we know it.
-
7 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:
but the looming outbreak of the coronavirus stateside brings uncertainty in regards to how much it will damper grosses.
-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, dudalb said:
MGM is lucky because the final theater contracts had not been signed;if they had presales would have started. Would have been a major and expensive legal headache to move it after the contracts had been signed.
I can guarantee you that no one is feeling lucky today.
-
James Bond and the MCU are self-starting engines. I don’t think either studio is really concerned with impact from another franchise.
And both studios are far more concerned by the common enemy right now.
-
2
-
-
Theatrical to VOD window shortening | 17-31 Day theatrical window for Uni
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
The announcement of Trolls World Tour going being available for a $20 rental on theatrical opening day is monumental. I expect this to become more common in the coming weeks.