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WrathOfHan

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Everything posted by WrathOfHan

  1. @Blankments@Eric Atreides We need new trailers stat 6x: Argylle (Killers of the Flower Moon, Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release, Napoleon, Saltburn) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (The Marvels, Napoleon, The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) 5x: Bob Marley: One Love (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, Napoleon, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release) The Fall Guy (The Marvels, The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) Ghosbusters: Frozen Empire (Napoleon, Wonka, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) 4x: Civil War (The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) Drive-Away Dolls (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, The Holdovers, Napoleon) Dune: Part Two (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer, Tenet IMAX) 3x: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire (Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) 2x: Challengers (No Hard Feelings, Barbie) Lisa Frankenstein (Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers) Madame Web (Napoleon, Wonka) Twisters (Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two) 1x: A Quiet Place: Day One (Dune: Part Two) Arthur the King (The Iron Claw) Elio (Elemental) Love Lies Bleeding (The Iron Claw) Problemista (Past Lives) White Bird (Elemental)
  2. tbh feel like the tracking thread is giving pretty realistic Dune numbers. No one should be disappointed with a 55-60M opening if that's what ultimately happens
  3. General thoughts: Oppenheimer has it locked up, and I'm still going Cillian>Paul in Actor The Director lineup is the best we've had in a long time. All excellent films and inspired choices No KOTFM in screenplay is a choice Score is a crock of shit. Joe Hisaishi was robbed The Nyad double nominations are hardly surpising imo. It's a basic movie with two strong performances from Academy favorites
  4. Zone of Interest hitting 1M while it's still super limited is impressive. It can probably make a good run to 4-5M over Anatomy of a Fall once Oscar nominations are out.
  5. Eh, I can't imagine audiences being shocked that Mean Girls is a musical will hurt legs that badly. It probably won't get more than a 2.7-2.8x regardless
  6. Not anticipating my top 25 to change much from what I've already seen; I've seen basically all the big prestige films. Just need to watch a few international films and docs first.
  7. June 28 A Quiet Place: Day One: A Quiet Place remains a consistent horror franchise for the current cinematic climate without any attempts to imitate or copy the series' basic premise. While I think a drop is coming, the three year gap from Part II should help minimize its decrease. Lupita will be a draw, and Michael Sarnoski is one of the most promising new filmmakers following Pig. If the quality is as good as it seems on paper, legs could be very strong. 40/130 (3.25x) Horizon: An American Saga Chapter One: Kevin Costner's experiment is coming at the right time now that he's out of Yellowstone. Similar to The Strangers, WB is releasing both chapters of Horizon within two months of each other. As a straight western from Costner, I think there's a roof for how willing current audiences will turn out. Older audiences still aren't back in full force, and this is a project I doubt the 18-35 crowd gravitates towards heavily. I'll stay low for now, and if I'm wrong, it'll be a pleasant surprise. 20/60 (3x)
  8. June 21 The Bikeriders: Following a decent launch at Telluride, Disney completely abandoned the film amidst the SAG strike and recouped money by selling it to Focus. I ultimately think Focus will handle the film much better than Disney was, but I'm not drastically changing my opening weekend expectations versus the initial December plan. By having the summer slot with an emptier schedule, legs will be good going into July. 10/35 (3.5x)
  9. June 14 Inside Out 2: Inside Out was one of the last big original box office hits for Pixar almost 9 years ago (damn) and is often ranked high for the studio. A Pixar sequel will be met with skepticism, especially for something like Inside Out that did not command another entry. Buzz and awareness are already strong, and it has a few weeks to itself before Despicable Me is out. While 300M feels like a stretch right now, I do think it'll solidly end up in the 200s. 70/245 (3.5x)
  10. June 7 Ballerina: Ana girl, you were great in Blonde! Lionsgate is attempting to build out the John Wick universe now that Keanu is done, but so far, The Continental came and went with minimal buzz. A Len Wiseman film that was script doctor'd by Emerald Fennell doesn't inspire much confidence, but Keanu's presence in the film along with Ana's star power will lead to a reasonable opening. If the film is bad, legs will collapse as Chapter 4 had pretty meh legs. 30/80 (2.67x) The Watchers: We will find out how closely Ishana Shyamalan takes after her father. Shyamalan's name will be all over marketing which will help the film's prospects. It's hard to project this one without a trailer, but I'm assuming it does ok for its size. 12/30 (2.5x)
  11. May 24 Furiosa: Here we go, fellas. After Fury Road exceed expectations both quality-wise and at the box office, another entry into the Mad Max universe based on the film's breakout character has all the makings for a smash hit. WB is standing firm on going against Apes, which I don't anticipate to be too big of an issue as Furiosa already has the IMAX advantage. Furiosa has everything working in its favor, and I would be shocked if it finishes under Fury Road unadjusted. 70/87/210 (3x from 3 day/2.41x from 4 day) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: If either sci-fi film will suffer from this showdown, it's Apes. Kingdom essential soft-reboots the last trilogy, leaving audiences without much of a hook to re-enter the franchise. War was subject to massive over-predicting back in 2017 following Dawn's overperformance and ended up being more frontloaded than many had hoped. I've gotten the trailer multiples times theatrically, and audiences never seem engaged with it. If I was a decision maker at Disney, I'd be moving this later in the summer to get away from Furiosa. 35/47/100 (2.86x from 3 day/2.13x from 4 day) Garfield: The memes are already driving awareness with the young adult crowd, and kids will obviously want to see a Garfield movie over the summer. Easy money, folks. 30/40/120 (4x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)
  12. May 17 The Strangers: Chapter 1: There seems to be genuine enthusiasm for the new Strangers reboot in horror circles, and Blumhouse has been expressing lots of confidence in it too. Lionsgate is attempting the Fear Street model theatrically with the remaining two chapters to be released later in 2024, which will undoubtedly draw attention and curiosity. I expect some frontloading as I doubt it will appeal beyond horror fans in tune with what Blumhouse is attempting, but if the film exceeds expectations, legs could be strong with no other horror films until A Quiet Place right now. 30/70 (2.33x) IF: Fucking obnoxious trailer. This will be the internet's punching bag for quite a while. This is the only live action family film coming out for quite a while, so it can co-exist with Garfield fine. Unless Krasinski has delivered a true four quad crowdpleaser, I don't think IF will do anything extraordinary. 20/70 (3.5x)
  13. May 10 My Ex-Friend's Wedding: Kay Cannon had a bit of a blunder with Cinderella even with Sony selling it to Amazon, but they still have confidence in the filmmaker to grant her another mid budget comedy. This feels like the obligatory Mother's Day comedy. Amanda Seyfried is enough of a draw to avoid a dreadful opening like Love Again for Sony last year, but as with all comedies these days, star power alone isn't enough to bring in audiences. This needs a trailer before any larger predictions, but if it flops... this is yet another example of Ariana DeBose having a bad year. 8/24 (3x) Horrorscope: I highly doubt Sony is releasing this the same day as My Ex-Friend's Wedding, but the synopsis and Screen Gems banner make this sound DOA. 2/4 (2x)
  14. May 3 The Fall Guy: This might be one of my hotter predictions, but I think this is coming for a break out. Bullet Train, despite a meh box office, found a big audience on Netflix and continues to stay relevant online. The Fall Guy has the added benefit of being PG-13 to bring in more teens and a starved, starved market for non-fantasy action by the time summer rolls around. Both Gosling and Blunt are coming off two of the biggest films of 2023 and are near locks to be Oscar nominated, further boosting the film's promotion and presence during awards season. Universal made a smart move vacating March to launch the summer. 60/190 (3.17x)
  15. April 26 Challengers: Prior to its strike delay, Challengers had lots of chatter online and strong trailer placement theatrically. It was poised to open Venice until MGM pulled the plug on a 2023 rollout. Once the marketing train resumes, I have no doubt the initial interest will return. Zendaya will be fresh off Dune, further helping the film's visibility as she campaigns. 15/45 (3x) Civil War: A24 is positioning this as a return to form for Alex Garland following the dreadful Men, bestowing it with a large budget and an IMAX release. However, the same was said for Beau Is Afraid which ended up being a non-commercial, 3 hour odyssey from their biggest hitmaker Ari Aster. Will this just be a blank check for Garland, or is there strong commercial potential? I'll err on the side of caution for now; like many films this month, WOM will be crucial for success. 10/25 (2.5x)
  16. April 12 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: The MonsterVerse feels like old news nowadays, especially with Godzilla Minus One being a breakout hit in the US grossing over 40% of what King of the Monsters made. Monarch on Apple has generated decent viewership for the service but is leaving no impact online whatsoever. Godzilla vs Kong benefitted from being a late stage pandemic film with a day and date launch, but even before COVID delays there were already concerns about its box office potential. This new GVK feels like something that will rely heavily on a late marketing push because there's no reason to be excited for it four months in advance. 35/90 (2.57x)
  17. April 5 The First Omen: I'm not sure how much cultural relevancy The Omen has for horror fans and younger audiences to latch onto a prequel. As we saw with The Exorcist: Believer, a legacy brand alone cannot uplift a film if the final product is garbage. Evil Dead Rise's 24.5M came with a month of buzz from SXSW and a more well-known franchise, so if Disney is trying to position The First Omen as a quality franchise play, early WOM will be critical for standing out. 12/30 (2.5x)
  18. Iron Claw has a shot at increasing from last weekend with the way WOM is going.
  19. Yeah, there's really no appeal for adults who grew up on the film like myself. When I saw Wonka with my friend, he thought the trailer looked pretty meh, and I could sense it from other childless adults in the audience.
  20. March 29 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Afterlife managed to defy pessimistic expectations following lengthy pandemic delays and benefitted from a surprisingly weak fall slate in 2021. Frozen Empire finds itself in a similar spot with Dune in its 5th weekend and the next big blockbuster two weeks out. It should have no issue staying in theaters until mid-May if not Memorial Day with how barren the schedule is, which can help legs. 30/100 (3.33x) Mickey 17: Yeah, this definitely isn't coming out in March. Talk to me when WB finds a new date for it.
  21. March 22 Arthur the King: Dog movies were already petering out pre-pandemic with three in 2019. Are we sure audiences are coming back in 2024 for a Mark Wahlberg dog pic? The film will struggle to bring in anyone under the age of 40, and older demos still aren't back in full force to theaters. 6/18 (3x)
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