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WrathOfHan

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Everything posted by WrathOfHan

  1. March 8 Kung Fu Panda 4: Dreamworks sequels as of late haven't quite been struggling but are not generating enough buzz and interest as the studio did even a decade ago. Having been 8 years since the last Kung Fu Panda, its prospects are a bit unpredictable. The franchise has historically seen diminishing returns domestically in favor of higher international skews, which I expect continue. Older audience turnout will make or break the gross, especially if a newer Dreamworks franchise like Trolls is inching across 100M. I just don't think the nostalgia is there for another installment. 20/80 (4x) Imaginary: Unlike Night Swim, this has time to generate buzz for Blumhouse and starts the first film in a Lionsgate partnership. If it's at least decent, being the first horror film since January could help fuel a mini-breakout. 14/42 (3x) Cabrini: Angel Studios film? Angel Studios gross. 5/15 (3x)
  2. March 1 Dune: Part Two: We're very much coming for a big increase here. This was poised to be the movie event of Q4 2023 if not for the strike, and now it'll have to settle for the film of Q1 2024. There's already pent up demand with the delay, and the barren schedule will only fuel sales to Dune in March. I would not be surprised if this pulls a Spider-Verse and has an increase of nearly 3x the original's opening weekend, but I'll go conservative for now. 75/225 (3x)
  3. February 23 Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training: Demon Slayer fans weren't thrilled when the last theatrical release was anime episodes packaged for the big screen, so this time around, it's clear another Mugen Train isn't in store. Only the die hard fans will show up for this. 6/10 (1.67x) Drive-Away Dolls: Similar to Lisa Frankenstein, being a quirky genre film outside of awards season will do Ethan Coen's latest no favors. That said, the cast features enough known names to help boost its opening weekend a bit, and audiences should respond well to a Coen-adjacent flick. 5/13 (2.6x) Ordinary Angels: We're not doing this again, Lionsgate. Either commit to releasing this film or sell it somewhere. 2/4 (2x)
  4. February 14 Madame Web: Morbius already looks like a great hit in comparison to the CBM flops this year. Madame Web will undoubtedly continue the downward trend for the subgenre, but being a Spider-Man spinoff over Valentines Day has its perks. Initial reception to the trailer clearly isn't good, and Sony's recent history with the not-MCU has been iffy. I'm expecting a bad, but not disastrous, opening with weak legs, especially with Dune a couple weeks later. 20/30/45 (2.25x from 3 day/1.5x from 5 day) Bob Marley: One Love: Coming off King Richard, Renaldo Marcus Green has some goodwill in the biopic world. With a slight delay, Bob Marley's trailer has been making the rounds theatrically for almost half a year now. I don't know if the trailer does enough to sell the movie for wider audiences, but with a musician on Marley's scale in an empty marketplace, drawing audiences in the late winter frame shouldn't be too hard. I imagine it does better than Whitney Houston movie which had zero visibility with audiences and bad reviews to boot. 15/22/53 (3.53x from 3 day/2.41x from 5 day) The Chosen: Episodes 4-6: I should probably briefly mention this after Angel Studios managed to make the first "chapter" into a modest hit before Sound of Freedom. I'm sure a similar turnout will occur here. 10/25 (2.5x)
  5. February 9 Colleen Hoover's It Ends with Us: ...Is this even coming out in February? Sony had the chance to attach the trailer with Anyone But You but didn't. Justin Baldoni's track record in this sphere has generally been solid, and Blake Lively can pull attention on social media. After Love Again flopped, I am cautious about Sony finding success with another romance film, but if this sticks with February, it can probably do ok. 6/21 (3.5x) Lisa Frankenstein: Focus has been struggling to capture a wider audience with nearly all of their post-pandemic releases, especially those not going for awards. Diablo Cody's name alone won't be a draw, and without a festival launch or large marketing budget, reviews will be crucial for generating a decent opening weekend at this scale. 4/12 (3x)
  6. Color Purple's capacity issues are hardly surprising. Even in NY, most of the major theaters are giving it a screen's worth of showtimes; Lincoln Square is doing standard in the day and Dolby at night with no in between. There are too many movies in the marketplace right now to command multiple screens for anything really.
  7. The Boys in the Boat is totally going to be the next movie my mom watches and goes "That's a good, clean old fashioned movie!"
  8. February 2 Argylle: Like I was saying, Ariana DeBose is in for a rough year. Argylle has become the villain of anyone with an AMC A-List subscription and anyone who has seen at least 2-3 movies in the past couple months. The large ensemble cannot make up for a couple glaring, fundamental issues with Argylle's existence: for starters, this $200M production was shot roughly two years ago from what I gather, and Apple offloaded this to Universal to help recoup some of that money compared to other gems like Ghosted and The Family Plan (now their biggest original film, apparently!). Matthew Vaughn's shtick doesn't appeal to audiences anymore, plain and simple. That said, the film's overexposure at least means awareness will be high, even if the film's quality already looks questionable. Now, if Taylor Swift is suddenly revealed to be the author like some speculated, this will be an entirely different story. 15/40 (2.67x)
  9. January 19 I.S.S.: Bleecker Street attempting to release a blockbuster? Don't make me laugh. Ariana DeBose is in for a rough year. 2/4 (2x)
  10. January 12 Mean Girls: The dismal marketing isn't fooling anyone. The film's target audience knows this is a musical, and early word of mouth seems decent. Paramount has been executing a strong advertising push on this, so as long as reviews deliver, this will likely hit the upper half of its tracking. I don't think 40M+ for the three day will happen, but maybe the 4 day crosses that mark. 32/38/96 Total (3x from 3 day/2.53x from 4 day) The Beekeeper: It speaks volume that I've seen David Ayer talk more about The Ayer Cut than actually promote his movie out in a couple weeks. The Beekeeper doesn't look terrible by Jason Statham standards, and MGM is at least securing a good PLF presence against Mean Girls. This fills the niche of an older male skewing action flick and should hopefully make an ok profit. 11/13/33 (3x from 3 day/2.54x from 4 day) The Book of Clarence: This was doomed the second Sony delayed it from September. They clearly wanted a prestigious release following The Harder They Fall's strong Netflix debut but realized it wouldn't gain traction. Debuting at the London Film Festival - to good reviews mind you! - with no presence due to the strike just shows how Sony fumbled this release. Jeymes Samuel probably should've stuck with Netflix; maybe the film eventually finds an audience there. 3/4/8 (2.67x from 3 day/2x from 4 day)
  11. January 5 Night Swim: Even by January Blumhouse standards, Night Swim's buzz feels still. This was never going to garner the same interest M3GAN had, but for a movie that's out in ten days, there needs to be a tsunami of positive signs for a breakout here: reviews, advertising, and sales. I have only gotten the trailer once and seen a single billboard. This one is... dead in the water. 10/25 (2.5x)
  12. After seeing American Fiction, I'm a bit dubious this will make it into Picture. I really don't see the appeal for international voters and can't imagine the domestic contingent has more passion than the Zone/Anatomy/May December camps. Wright and Screenplay will happen though.
  13. This is a perfectly fine/good opening for Hunger Games. It'll break even with the worldwide gross this weekend alone, and Lionsgate has lots of upside domestically with most of the budget already made back from tax credits and international sales. This was never going to be an easy sell for more casual Hunger Games fans, and the B+ Cinemascore is hardly surprising given it ends on a darker note. Lmao at The Marvels. Time to cancel Thunderbolts.
  14. @Eric Danvers Argylle can fuck off 7x: The Marvels (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Bottoms, A Haunting in Venice, Saw X, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) 5x: Killers of the Flower Moon (Oppenheimer, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, Gran Turismo, A Haunting in Venice, Saw X) 4x: Argylle (Killers of the Flower Moon, Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) Five Nights at Freddy's (Fast X, Gran Turismo, Bottoms, A Haunting in Venice) Napoleon (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, A Haunting in Venice, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) 3x: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Saw X, Killers of the Flower Moon, Five Nights at Freddy’s) Bob Marley: One Love (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers) Drive-Away Dolls (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, The Holdovers) Dune: Part Two (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer) Migration (The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Barbie, Five Nights at Freddy’s) Next Goal Wins (Gran Turismo, Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers) 2x: Challengers (No Hard Feelings, Barbie) The Holdovers (Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) Lisa Frankenstein (Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers) Saltburn (A Haunting in Venice, Saw X) Silent Night (Saw X, Killers of the Flower Moon) Thanksgiving (Saw X, Five Nights at Freddy’s) Trolls: Band Together (The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) Wish (Elemental, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) 1x: American Fiction (The Holdovers) Beyond Utopia (Saw X) The Color Purple (Barbie) Elio (Elemental) Fallen Leaves (Anatomy of a Fall) Freelance (Gran Turismo) Ferrari (The Holdovers) Godzilla Minus One (Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Saw X) The Hunger Games Rerelease (Saw X) The Iron Claw (Killers of the Flower Moon) Love Actually Re-Release (Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release) May December (Anatomy of a Fall) Mean Girls (Five Nights at Freddy’s) Night Swim (Five Nights at Freddy’s) On Fire (Gran Turismo) Poor Things (A Haunting in Venice) Problemista (Past Lives) Self Reliance (Bottoms) What Happens Next (A Haunting in Venice) White Bird (Elemental) Wonka (A Haunting in Venice) The Zone of Interest (Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release)
  15. https://deadline.com/2023/11/actors-strike-deal-not-imminent-1235597188/ Sigh.
  16. Say goodbye to any chance of the strike ending this year, I guess. Jesus.
  17. After seeing The Holdovers.... yeah definitely not underestimating this movie. I don't think its win potential is there beyond Screenplay and Randolph but can easily see it racking up 6-7 nominations.
  18. It's coming out at a bad time, and the NYFF screenings were all sell outs that took away 75k or so from the film's box office. I still need to see it but the current showtimes + runtime don't make it a convenient watch.
  19. If this gets a big critics group win that isn't animated or really overperforms domestically, it will be hard for voters to turn a blind eye even with the animation bias. The narrative writes itself. That might not necessarily mean Picture, but Score and an extra nomination aside from Animated would make sense.
  20. The thing with KOTFM is the only logical intermission point is right at the two hour mark. At that point you can survive another 80 minutes.
  21. AMC is only expecting a 26-27M weekend for Eras. I guess Saturday sales aren't up much from yesterday.
  22. I guess And? But anthology films are a hard sell even if Poor Things does very well this December. Edit: Horizon duh
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