MikeQ

Jamie Lee Curtis wouldn’t have personally been my pick, but she absolutely nailed the characterization of Deidre, making what could have been a one note, throwaway character compelling and known. I’m over the sentiment that a performance has to be a showy one with heightened emotions to be worthy of an Oscar. Peace, Mike

Wonderful speech from Quan. These are the moments I live for with the Oscars - it’s all about the speeches. Peace, Mike

I recently binge-watched the first two seasons of this show and had a whole lot of fun. It works because it's funny and absurd but never loses sight of the characters and rooting them in something sincere and real. Looking forward to a season 3 with Meryl Streep! Peace, Mike

A fair point - I probably should have added it, too. I didn't quite put All Quiet winning Best International Film at the same lock status as the three I've listed, because: We don't necessarily have the same precursor dominance (statistics) that we can look to like for the three I've listed - because we don't have the same industry bodies (in the US) that we can look to for other awards. For example, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio has swept/dominated the precursors, winning PGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and the Annie Awards (5 wins, including Best Feature). I'd be shocked if it doesn't win the Oscar - so I have to disagree that it isn't likely to win. PGA doesn't have a Best International Film award. At the Golden Globes, Argentina, 1985 won over All Quiet. Critics Choice didn't give it to All Quiet, either. The category can be a little odd. In order to vote for the Best International Film category, the Academy member must have viewed all five nominated films. This means that the category isn't as straightforward as some other categories. In 2006, Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for 6 Oscars, but lost Best International Film. All that said, it dominated at the BAFTAs and did get the Best Picture nom (among many) from the Academy - so it's pretty much a lock, too. Point taken. Peace, Mike

It's as locked as it can be. The film won a record number of awards from the Visual Effects Society, and won BAFTA and Critics' Choice. The Oscar winners I'd bet money on, I feel extremely confident of their wins: Ke Huy Quan for Best Supporting Actor The Way of Water for Best Visual Effects Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio for Best Animated Feature Film Peace, Mike

It's bold to predict that SAG will only go 1 of 4 with the Oscars. That's only happened twice (in 2001 and 2002). Certainly a possibility, but a rare outcome, one that hasn't happened in 20 years. It seems unlikely to me, especially since SAG was so perfectly timed this year - airing just before the Oscar voting period opened. Just an observation - not a criticism; the beauty of the Oscars is that anything can happen! Peace, Mike

I cried. Fantastic episode. I'll expand on my thoughts later, if I feel like it - time for bed. (PS. When David asked the girl at the beginning if she remembers what's next, and he recites the rest of the bible verse, did anyone else's mind immediately go to Titanic and the priest during the sinking? Just me? Yeah, I've seen it too many times...) Peace, Mike

Internationally, yes. Endgame made about $1.31 billion without China, and Way of Water is at about $1.37 billion without China. Worldwide, no. Endgame made $2.17 billion worldwide without China, and Way of Water is at almost $2.04 billion without China. That said, if Way of Water had Russia under its belt, WW-China might be pretty close... Peace, Mike

With its strong late legs, and total of 670.6M after this weekend, Way of Water has officially hit a 5+ multiplier. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (5.00)^ Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Frozen II (2019) — 130.3 million (3.66) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51) Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) ^ Run not yet complete Peace, Mike

I'm not one to focus so much on poor performances, but I was curious what the worst multipliers were for comic book films. Where is Quantumania going to fall? Can it stabilize? Worst Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers: Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99) X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11) Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13) Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 187.4 million (2.19) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23) Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27) X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28) Black Widow — 80.4 million (2.29) Eternals (2021) — 71.3 million (2.31) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35) X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36) Peace, Mike

She has been impressive, I agree. What she nails for me is her character's facade of being "tough" and knowing it all, balanced with her childlike disposition (we see that she is just a kid, who can be silly - and deep down just wants to be taken care of in this world). She feels like a 14 year old. This episode I thought was a stand out for her - the complexity of emotions in her face throughout the episode, with the layers of her relationship with Riley, her underlying fears (abandoned again), etc. Peace, Mike

My gut tells me Fraser will win. Butler feels too young and with too much a "pretty boy" vibe to win. If Butler wins, he'll be among the youngest winners of Best Actor. He'll be the youngest since Adrien Brody in 2002 (for a Holocaust film), and before that Richard Dreyfus in 1977. Just a feeling. Peace, Mike

An episode that focused on Ellie and her backstory was much needed. We've largely been seeing things from Joel's perspective - so for me this was welcome. And once again, it thematically fits within the current journey with Joel and Ellie. And as someone not at all familiar with the game, I'm so sucked in by the world building and the incredible production design. Peace, Mike

In part, insane fan rush for the last instalment. Still in the top 5 largest preview/midnight grosses, despite consisting of only midnight showings back in 2011. The midnights were 47.7% of its opening day gross - a share of opening day that is second to only The Force Awakens; and 25.7% of its opening weekend gross, which is to this day still the highest share of opening weekend from previews/midnights (The Force Awakens is second with 23.0%). That's pretty wild to me, considering that previews now almost extend across a whole extra day on Thursdays. Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews The film also opened in July and benefited from peak summer weekdays, etc. Peace, Mike

It's actually about $170M difference (it's hard to read those numbers because I put them in billions). Way of Water won't pass Endgame. Peace, Mike

I edited this a couple times, as I messed up my Titanic numbers. The only China numbers I can find on BOM indicate the $145M Titanic made in its 2012 re-release. My best source I can find indicates that Titanic made $42.3M in China in its original run in 1997/98, meaning that it made about $1.80 billion in its original run minus China. That said, I'm not sure if that's completely up to date - so if anyone knows better, please feel free to correct me. Peace, Mike

Way of Water has officially become the third film to cross the $2 billion mark without China. For those curious (given the lack of consistency in films receiving China releases, etc): Top Films WW-China (Original Runs) Avatar (2009) — 2.54 billion Avengers: Endgame (2018) — 2.17 billion Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 2.003 billion (as of Feb 20) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 1.94 billion Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 1.91 billion Titanic (1997) — 1.80 billion Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 1.69 billion The Lion King (2019) — 1.54 billion Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 1.49 billion Jurassic World (2015) — 1.44 billion It does demonstrate just how difficult it is to cross $2 billion worldwide, without China. Inflation will help moving forward. Curious to see how many we'll see crossing the $2 billion mark in the coming years (with or without China). Do any of the remaining Avatar films manage to do it? Will the next Avengers films manage to do it? Will anything unexpected manage to do it? Peace, Mike

With Quantumania's opening, if I'm not mistaken, it is the 17th MCU film (of 31) to have opened to $100+ million. I understand that there are legitimate concerns to be had, re: the direction of the MCU and impact on box office grosses - despite this, I remain truly impressed by this franchise and its overall strength and consistency. Share of opening weekend from previews seems high - particular with the holiday - so I suspect its drop next weekend will be sizeable given both factors. I've mentioned before that not all MCU films are for me (there are many I haven't seen). But I'm very much looking forward to the conclusion to the Guardians trilogy - among my favourite films in the MCU. If this knocks it out of the park, the franchise overall I'm sure will be seen as being back on track, etc. The franchise has clearly built up a lot of good will. Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 357.1 million (16.8%) Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 260.1 million (19.2%) Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (15.1%) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (9.0%) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (12.5%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (14.4%) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 187.4 million (19.2%) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) — 181.3 million (15.4%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (14.0%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (9.0%) Captain Marvel (2019) — 153.4 million (13.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (11.6%) Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) — 144.2 million (20.1%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (5.9%) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (11.8%) Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (13.2%) Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) — 105.5 million (16.6%) Peace, Mike

Your earlier point about the Saturday-to-Saturday drop (-28%) is a really excellent one - in terms of getting a better sense of what Way of Water's drop for the weekend would have been without the confounding factors of the holiday this weekend and Super Bowl last weekend. That said, to imply that Way of Water's drop (either Saturday-to-Saturday or for the weekend overall) is as expected seems pretty problematic to me, given the discourse on the board around Way of Water having a heftier drop this weekend than it would ordinarily get, given Ant-Man's huge opening and the loss of PLFs. (And I get it - I expected it, too.) This is bolstered by predictions from reputable sites. BOP predicted $4.5M (-38%) for the 3-day weekend, and BOR predicted $6.4M for the 4-day weekend. Way of Water is besting BOR's prediction for the entire 4-day in just 3-days, and BOP's 3-day prediction by nearly 50%. It's not surprising to me that some folks (myself included) are surprised by the strength of its hold this weekend. (That said, I do understand any annoyance you may have with the condescending tone some folks take in their posts.) Peace, Mike

There was a line in this last episode that I really loved, that apparently is a classic from the game, too (I know nothing about the game and have avoided spoilers): Peace, Mike

Great episode, particularly for the development of Joel. Pascal is terrific - emanating that toughness and vulnerability. It puts into focus the kinds of questions that I'm pleased the show continues to grapple with - around love and connection, and humanity and the moral complexity of life. What does a future look like when everything goes to shit? What does it mean to live a meaningful life? Are we able to transform ourselves after we've experienced great loss or done morally questionable things to survive this world? Stuff that just resonates with me a great deal at this stage in my life. Peace, Mike

Who, a month or two ago, thought Way of Water would be in second place this weekend? Its 10th weekend, and with only a 15% drop against Ant-Man (likely better with actuals, given the Sunday projection). Ant-Man seems poised to increase with actuals, too. Saturday was strong. Any potential impacts of WOM will likely be seen most during weekdays. Peace, Mike

This is a significantly better Friday-to-Friday drop than I expected before this week, coming up against Ant-Man. With the strength of this weekend, I'm only now feeling confident in saying that Way of Water can hit the 5+ multiplier mark. As of now: Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.86)^ Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Frozen II (2019) — 130.3 million (3.66) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51) Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) A note that it's always important to keep in mind the various factors that influence the legs of a film. For example, I think Black Panther's near 3.5 multiplier off of a 200+ million opening weekend in the middle of February (with no summer weekdays or December holidays, and for the type of fan-driven blockbuster film it is) to be exceptional - and I'm not trying to say it is the "25th best" in isolation. Animated/family films tend to have stronger legs, regardless of release date, and so they are overrepresented on this list. Etc. Peace, Mike

I certainly appreciate all of the nuanced discussion of the MCU, its recent critical reception, current direction, future prospects, etc. All that said, another $100M+ opener from the MCU - making 70 films that have ever opened to $100M+, of which 17 are MCU films. This means that about a quarter of 100M+ openers are MCU films - and when only looking at films that opened since the MCU started, that's closer to 30%. I'm thankful for the MCU, because without it, we would have significantly less blockbuster openers to enjoy and parse (and debate) as so many are now. The franchise does seem to be getting more fan driven lately, which I suppose is to be expected given the interconnected universe approach and the larger the franchise gets. 38% of Ant-Man's opening day from 17.5M in previews in February. Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses for MCU Films Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 60.0 million (38.1%) Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 50.0 million (41.0%) Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 39.0 million (36.7%) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 36.0 million (39.7%) Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) — 29.0 million (41.7%) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) — 28.0 million (33.2%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 27.6 million (32.7%) Black Panther (2018) — 25.2 million (33.2%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 25.0 million (33.1%) Captain Marvel (2019) — 20.7 million (33.5%) Marvel's The Avengers (2012) — 18.7 million (23.1%) Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) — 17.5 million (38.0%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 17.0 million (30.2%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 15.6 million (22.7%) Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 15.4 million (30.5%) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 14.5 million (31.0%) Black Widow (2021) — 13.2 million (33.4%) Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) — 11.5 million (34.1%) Peace, Mike

Hi @setna, This is what I have as of 2020 - *only for 21st century films* (copied from somewhere on this board, if I recall correctly). Way of Water should be on this list now (top 3 or 4 I think?), as should TGM. Titanic would be on here if it went beyond year 2000. Can't recall exact gross. But worth corroborating with others who know far more than me and may have up-to-date numbers - I cobble together box office stats as they are shared/I find them/etc. Rank Title Date Gross 1 Avatar 12/18/2009 96,114,000 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 12/18/2015 94,345,000 3 Avengers: Endgame 04/26/2019 82,536,000 4 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 12/15/2017 61,979,000 5 Avengers: Infinity War 04/27/2018 61,707,000 6 Marvel's The Avengers 05/04/2012 59,496,000 7 Black Panther 02/16/2018 57,992,000 8 Jurassic World 06/12/2015 57,365,000 9 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 12/16/2016 55,306,000 10 Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 12/17/2003 52,943,000 Peace, Mike