MikeQ

Thursday-to-Thursday Drops 80 for Brady: -44.5% The Way of Water: -22% Knock at the Cabin: -38% Weekend numbers will depend on the Friday increases, and how much of an impact Ant-Man will have. Peace, Mike

Thursday numbers, according to Deadline: https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-opening-1235263086/ Among regular pics in release, Warner Bros. HBO Max title Magic Mike’s Last Dance ends week one with an estimated $12.5M after a $709K Thursday, -13% from Wednesday at an updated 2,176 locations. Paramount’s 80 for Brady was second on Thursday with $657K (-17%), a second week of $9.7M, running total of $28.6M at 3,939 theaters. 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water saw $530K yesterday, -24%, a ninth week of $10.9M and running total of $650.9M at 3,065. The pic is poised to become the 9th highest movie ever at the domestic box office this weekend, surpassing 2015’s Jurassic World ($653.4M). Universal’s Knock at the Cabin booked at 3,657 had a second week of $8.5M, running total of $26.4M and Thursday of $445K, -13%. Fifth belonged to Paramount’s 25th Anniversary edition of Titanic at 2,464 locations which did an estimated $394K, -37%, on Thursday for a first week of $10.1M. The lifetime running total is currently $669.4M. Peace, Mike

Wow. Fantastic episode - another one that continues to further the journey of Joel and Ellie, while introducing us to new characters that we quickly invest in. Meanwhile, the lore expands and the production quality remains top notch. This show is just a terrific balance of heart and humanity with horror and world building. The biggest thing for me is that the show keeps on surprising me. It’s a joy to watch. Peace, Mike

One of Shyamalan's better films - with more emphasis on substance over style. It's a pretty tight story, with a sense of dread that creeps up on you at the end. Peace, Mike

Also, upon second viewing, can we talk about the fantastic production design and art direction? The compound is incredible. And go back and look at how the house changes over the years - e.g. the dinner scene when Frank first arrives to the dinner scene at the end. The art we see throughout the episode. Etc. These are the kinds of details that resonate. Peace, Mike

The beautiful thing about the third episode, too, is that it’s not just a bottle episode. It certainly stands on its own - but we also see through Bill and Frank what a life worth living can look like when the world goes to shit. Life without love and human connection is not living, it is merely surviving. And the episode seamlessly connects this, thematically and emotionally, to Joel and the main arc of the show. He has spent 20 years merely surviving - emotionally distancing himself from others after his daughter’s death. He couldn’t even bring himself to name his relationship with Tess when talking with Bill at the dinner table outside (“If my, uh… if mine…”). He has been resisting any kind of connection to Ellie, though we are starting to see that change in subtle ways. Joel has now committed to bringing Ellie along with him, a choice that we will likely see transform both Joel and Ellie (and their relationship) in the season(s) ahead. It remains to be seen if the show will drop the ball, but so far, terrific stuff. (Also, I'm glad I'm so disconnected from social media. I was not aware of all of the hype around this episode - I had no idea what to expect, and it was a beautiful surprise.) Peace, Mike

I’m so sorry for your loss. I can’t know your experience, but I feel this so deeply. I know we don’t know each other, but thinking of you right now. Peace, Mike

You're totally right - it wasn't a defined intro like the first two. I should I have said: Peace, Mike

Also, a reveal in this episode is pretty wild to think about looking back to episode 1 (spoilers below; do not read if you do not want to be spoiled): 🤯 Peace, Mike

Superb episode. Each one continues to surprise me. The intros give us more context about the world and what happened, which is really well done, too. Also, to this episode: Peace, Mike

I suppose you could make that isolated comparison from weekend to weekend. The problem that arises when we do this is that we ignore all context of time of year, the various factors that influence a films run and legs, why studios release films when they do, etc. This is why I spoke to the differences in summer films vs December holiday films, and more specifically, what blockbuster films capitalize on in those different periods. To put it simply, to evaluate a run and how it will do moving forward, I'd much rather compare to similar films that opened in the same period, not a film that opened in a very different time of year. That's just my perspective. Peace, Mike

All good points. At the same time, it's worth remembering that this is the trade off that is made for big films that open during the winter holidays instead of the summer. There's a reason the summer is filled with blockbuster films every year - because even with the competition, the summer is an incredibly lucrative time of year. The market expands, as college students and kids get out for the summer, drive-in cinemas open, folks take time off work and enjoy summer holidays, etc. Likewise, films benefit from the December holiday period, which is significantly boosted for about a 2-week period, and then rely on a quiet January to continue to leg out from there despite lack of summer weekdays, with good WOM or riding awards attention, etc. They are different periods of the year that bring with them different advantages/disadvantages. Peace, Mike

I also can't help but think that was in part because some of No Way Home's January business shifted to February. Canada's most populous province (which I live in) was on a modified lockdown for the month of January, such that theatres had to remain closed. (I can't speak for any other provinces in Canada.) Worth keeping in mind, when making comparisons to No Way Home at this point. Peace, Mike

Again, I hate to be Grumpy Gus, but this isn’t likely to be the case. Please go look at No Way Home's drops through February - especially that 1% drop on President's Day weekend. Way of Water will not be able to replicate that, for obvious reasons. Peace, Mike

Interesting. I think a cogent argument could be made that Way of Water and Ant-Man - while clearly posing direct competition - don't overlap in the same vein as say two more typical blockbuster fare. As you suggest, it's possible that Antman draws in a somewhat different audience overall - perhaps younger, more male, etc, in the weeks they share together. I think it will still hit Way of Water hard, with screens and all, but maybe it will stabilize to an extent after that. You could be right - I guess we'll find out. Peace, Mike

Very strong 22% drop this weekend for Way of Water - and what it needed to still have a possibility for hitting a 5+ multiplier (~670M). The next two weekends will be crucial, I think, to determine if I can hit the milestone, given that it will be hit hard when Ant-man arrives. Whether it makes it or not, what a run this has been to follow. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.63)^ Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) ^ Run not yet complete Peace, Mike

I don't see how Knock at the Cabin misses at #1. It's looking at $20+ million, if BOP's forecast is any indication. I'd love to see it closer to a $30M opening - I'm hoping good reviews will help. Peace, Mike

Whatever you think of James Cameron, this is an extraordinary accomplishment. Three of the top 4 highest grossing films, and three $2+ billion films from original ideas. I wonder if this will ever be replicated. Peace, Mike

Really thrilled for the strong social media reactions to this. Looking forward to it, especially after M3GAN was a disappointment for me. Sounds like Shyamalan delivers. Peace, Mike

I'm so thrilled for the love for Everything Everywhere. It was expected to do well, but it even outperformed those expectations - double digit nominations, including a nod for Stephanie Hsu. This indicates strength in general, and among actors in particular. Ke Huy Quan is almost certainly going to win Best Supporting Actor, and the film can realistically win Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing, among others (SAG will help us determine if Yeoh or Blanchett is looking like the frontrunner for Best Actress). I'm hoping this all leads to a Best Picture win - which would be a pretty thrilling win for a beautifully absurd and ambitious film that became a crowdpleaser and had an exceptional box office performance. Also, this is the first Oscar nomination for Jamie Lee Curtis. I'm going to look forward to seeing her on Oscar night. First acting nomination ever for an MCU film, with Angela Bassett's nomination. I'm happy about this recognition. That she could realistically win is even more wonderful. Peace, Mike

It's incredible to see another film pass the $2 billion mark, and have the legs to do so handily. Not too long ago it was unclear if Way of Water would even pass Jurassic World's $1.67 billion. It's only the 5th film to hit $2 billion in its original run, and ultimately will be only the third film to do so without China (and for that matter, without Russia too). $2 billion Films WW-China (Original Runs) Avatar (2009) — 2.54 billion Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 2.17 billion Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 2+ billion The sole milestone left that I'm interested in is whether it can hit $670 million domestically and achieve that 5+ multiplier. Next weekend's drop I think will give us a clearer picture of whether that looks very probable or not. Peace, Mike

Holy crap. That was an incredible first episode. It’s been a while that a show has surprised me in this way. As someone who is not at all familiar with the game, I was really impressed. A balance of all great things: an exceptionally effective hook; excellent cinematography; horror and human stakes; and a setup that feels like it will beget both emotional weight and intrigue through the season. Looking forward to the episodes ahead. Peace, Mike

The power of the A. Peace, Mike

If this proves to be accurate, that would be only a 13% drop from Saturday. And make for a ~32.8M weekend (-28.4% drop from last weekend). Looking like a sub-30% weekend drop even if Sunday isn’t quite 12M with final numbers. Peace, Mike

With the 4-day weekend estimate, Avatar jumps up to the top 5 multipliers for $70M+ Friday openers. Let's see if it has the late legs to hit a 5+ multiplier. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.25)^ Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) ^ Run not yet complete Peace, Mike