MikeQ

If that near +100% Saturday jump is any indication, Way of Water is solidifying itself as a weekend film. If @XXR the Conqueror is right and it's looking at 31.5M for the weekend, it will probably be at about ~$570M after Monday. It will need another $100M to hit $670M and a 5+ multiplier. Possible, but by no means guaranteed. In addition to seeing where the film ends up worldwide, this is what sustains my interest in the film's later run - to see if it can hit this milestone. I'll be looking to see if it can capitalize over the next few weekends with some strong holds, otherwise it may be tough. Too bad Titanic and Way of Water aren't the same studio, otherwise I'd suggest they get on that "double feature" marketing for when Titanic opens. "This Valentine's Day, experience two of James Cameron's cinematic masterpieces on the big screen... one about family and the other about love... and both starring Kate Winslet. 😅😉 [/joke] (Though I may do that double feature myself - certainly won't be missing Titanic, at least.) Peace, Mike

No Way Home had good legs overall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level of TGM, personally. TGM's legs were remarkable. I still remember how incredible it was to experience that second weekend drop. It was in a league of its own, especially coming off of an inflated holiday opening weekend. Truly insane. Best Second Weekend Drops for 100M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend: Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -28.9% Spider-Man (2002): -37.8% The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4% Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3% Black Panther (2018): -44.7% Finding Dory (2016): -46.0% Alice in Wonderland (2010): -46.0% Toy Story 3 (2010): -46.2% Beauty and the Beast (2017): -48.3% Jurassic World (2015): -49.0%* The Avengers (2012): -50.3% The Batman (2022): -50.4% Toy Story 4 (2019): -50.6%^ It (2017): -51.3% The Secret Life of Pets (2016): -51.3% *2nd weekend was not technically a holiday weekend, but it did benefit from Father’s Day ^2nd weekend wasn’t a holiday weekend for US/NA, but it was for CANADA (Canada Day weekend arguably boosted its Sunday gross) @John Marston mentioned Spider-Man's legs - to add to his point, even it "only" had a -37.8% drop into the second weekend, and that was two decades ago without the preview grosses we have today. Peace, Mike

First of all, @M37, I'm so grateful for all of your analyses - forever and always. Thank you. This point is well taken, but this doesn't exactly reference the original argument being made: which is that The Way of Water's legs (a 5x multiplier, if it manages to hit that milestone - still very much uncertain) is normal for a December opener. It's clear that December openers have leggier runs, on average, due to the holidays - and so direct comparisons to other times of year is problematic. (Though I appreciate that this was worth mentioning - since we do get new folks stopping by who aren't as cognizant of this.) Same can be said of comparing summer films to other times of year (minus December holidays) since these films benefit from boosted summer weekdays. If a 5x multiplier for Friday openers was normal in December, regardless of gross, then we would see this happening at a higher rate than we do now, IMO. I suppose it depends on what our definition of "normal" is. We could make an argument that 5x is not as exceptional for a December opener - in general - and I think that would be a fair point. I think probably a 6x multiplier is a better milestone to look to, since only 5 films opening to $20+ million (Friday openers) have achieved this milestone. And yet, this conversation about multipliers still requires more nuance. Other factors that influence legs and must be considered are: the genre of the film; the size of the opening weekend; the year of release (films have gotten progressively less leggy, on average, particularly with the addition of midnights, then previews, and now previews that start earlier and earlier such that we have effectively a 4-day opening weekend); the novelty factor (is the film a traditional offering within an existing genre, is it part of a known IP, a sequel, etc); and more (including the obvious: WOM). Family animated films, for example, are significantly over-represented among the best multipliers of all-time for $70+ million Friday openers. The first time I shared my list of multipliers for these films, I provided an analysis that took into account the various factors that influence legs, but haven't continued to do that each time I've shared the list - assuming these nuances are self-evident to us box office nerds - but perhaps it is worth reminding us all. In sum, if Way of Water does have strong late legs and manages to hit 5x, I think this is an exceptionally strong run - given the opening, the genre, etc. Lower opening and family/animated films are more apt to achieve long legs, including in December. The fact that most folks were not expecting a 5x multiplier after it opened (the conversation circled around the fact that it was following Rogue One legs closely), suggests to me that its strength into its third and fourth weekends were unexpected - in other words, not considered normal. (Supporting this is that the majority of entrants into the weekend prediction contests for the third and fourth weekends underestimated each weekend gross.) If other blockbusters at the level of Way of Water hit the 5+ multiplier over the coming decade, I'm genuinely open to changing my mind - because it's certainly true that we don't have a large sample of films to look to at this level. AND, we still have a lot of run to go - if Way of Water falls off a cliff this weekend and onwards, then we have new information to parse. When we discuss these kinds of factors as a community, we're getting into the areas of box office analysis that aren't black and white. We should remain respectful and collegial - rigid and insulting posts aren't as persuasive, anyway. Peace, Mike

Great start to the show with Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett’s wins and speeches. Peace, Mike

Absolutely. A film accrues its own set of advantages by playing through January, a much quieter month, despite the more muted weekdays - especially if it is able to capitalize on great WOM. I was simply trying to put TGM's run into perspective, since the question was posed about how the "math" works. Each film is working with a different set of advantages/disadvantages. Taken together, it may be close and an interesting comparison to follow. Peace, Mike

From what I remember, it happens in waves as schools get off for summer at different times. Films definitely experience the advantages of summer weekdays in June, progressively so until July, which is when Canadian schools get out and films experience that peak summer advantage. Peace, Mike

Confidently predicting that a film will outdo "X" film because it has matched or somewhat exceeded "X" film's current weekend and therefore will outdo it from this point in the run onwards, is not possible when: 1. "X" film had exceptional late legs of its own. Check out TGM's late legs - they are really sexy: That's 20% drops or better for 8 weekends in a row. 2. And it opened in the summer, benefiting from strong summer weekdays (with kids out of school and many folks off work). Way of Water will, naturally, lose ground during the weekdays (starting tomorrow, in fact). That's not a slight against Way of Water - but a natural occurrence due to the different times of year and advantages of opening during the summer. There is a reason why the list of biggest box office months ever are predominated by June and July: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=all&ref_=bo_csm_ac Studios love to lap up those summer weekdays. Therefore, it's not a foregone conclusion that Way of Water can match TGM's domestic gross. It certainly can, and its prospects are looking better with the exceptionally strong hold this weekend. But for the reasons above, its too simplistic to say, "it has matched/exceeded this weekend and therefore it will go on to exceed its total gross". Not trying to be a Grumpy Gus - just put things in perspective. Peace, Mike

Well, I fully recognize that I was wrong on this one - both my prediction, and my thinking that most folks were overestimating the film. Well done to the folks who nailed it or were really close. Peace, Mike

All credit goes to the terrific @XXR the Conqueror for compiling these lists. I've just updated them with the numbers from this week: Days Over 20M The Force Awakens — 17 Spider-Man: No Way Home — 14 Avatar: The Way of Water — 12 Avengers: Endgame — 11 Avatar — 9 Infinity War — 9 Black Panther — 9 Jurassic World — 9 Top Gun: Maverick — 8 Days Over 10M Avatar — 28 Avatar: The Way of Water — 22 The Force Awakens — 21 Top Gun: Maverick — 20 Spider-Man: No Way Home — 18 Black Panther — 18 Avengers: Endgame — 16 Jurassic World — 16 Avengers: Infinity War — 15 Peace, Mike

What can I say that hasn’t been said. Fantastic weekend for Way of Water. This is an exceptionally strong post-holiday weekend drop. It’s going to play as a strong weekend movie, if that 80% Saturday increase is any indication. Post Holidays Weekend Drops Avatar: -26.6% Avatar: The Way of Water: -33.2% Aquaman: -40.5% Spider-Man: No Way Home: -41.8% The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: -45% Star Wars: Episode IV - The Rise of Skywalker -52.3% Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens: -53.1% Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: -54.8% Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: -55.5% With this drop, I’m really curious to see how Way of Water legs out from here. Already it has jumped to the top 10 multipliers of all time for $70+ million openers, with a 3.85 multiplier. It will easily glide past a 4 multiplier next week. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (3.85)^ Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Next weekend is a long weekend (MLK day), and it looks pretty smooth sailing for several weekends beyond that. The original Avatar dropped 15% into its MLK weekend. Can Way of Water drop 20% or better, looking at a ~$35+ million weekend? If so, this would be another great sign for late legs. Not sure if it can quite achieve that, but it will drop well nonetheless. It needs a 30% drop or better on MLK weekend to have the second best fifth weekend ever (just ahead of the behemoth that is Titanic, which hit exactly $30M on it’s fifth weekend). And with M3gan opening so well, and both Puss in Boots and Wakanda Forever legging nicely, really fun stuff all around! Peace, Mike

Yeah, props to those folks who have maintained from early on that Way of Water will have more than just normal strong legs. It's going to, at least, get close to a 5 multiplier, and I'm now recognizing a 5+ multiplier as a genuine possibility. Given this, and the strength of international numbers, that Way of Water will probably most likely become one of the top 4 films worldwide, behind only Endgame and two other Jim Cameron movies (Avatar & Titanic). Just wild! Peace, Mike

Gah, now I need to watch this again this weekend. Hot take: I know everybody loves Love Actually, but I really don't. I don't think it's great. The Holiday is my go-to during the holidays. Peace, Mike

Edit: Nevermind, don't want to stoke anything - momentary lapse in judgement. Peace, Mike

A 3-5% decrease would be excellent, and cap off a terrific week for Way of Water. It also continues to consistently perform better than Rogue One, even with the same calendar configuration, which is a really great sign for longevity post-holidays. This would mean even with Rogue One Fri/Sat/Sun pattern, it is looking at $40+ million. I guess the question is how much does it outperform Rogue One's weekend pattern - and namely, how big will the Friday jump be (or not be)? That's the big question mark for me. Are the runtime and PLF factors pushing more business to during the week, or is it more likely to jump higher on the weekend because of this? 🤔 Peace, Mike

TGM benefited from Father's Day and increased 12% on the Sunday in it's 4th weekend. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that The Way of Water has a better 4th weekend (>$44.7M) than TGM - though I don't think that will happen, personally. As for the original Avatar, it increased almost 120% on the Friday, whereas given this year's calendar configuration, I would be very surprised if Way of Water increases anywhere near this. But who knows - we'll see what happens. Peace, Mike

That’s very true. The beauty of following the box office is that there are films that will defy expectations in different ways, so who knows. I could be wrong. That said, the calendar configuration for the first week in January does tend to matter. Because of this year’s calendar, there are more folks off this week than in other years where Christmas and New Years fall earlier in their respective weeks and folks took more of their time off in December. More kids/students are still off school this week compared to some other years (e.g. here in Canada they don’t return until Monday), which contributes to this. Peace, Mike

With the different calendar configuration, I don’t expect Way of Water to jump anywhere close to the nearly 120% the original Avatar did. Friday jump will be more muted than that, IMO. This is supported by the Friday jumps we saw in 2017 with the same calendar configuration as this year: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2017-01-06/?ref_=bo_rl_table_22 Peace, Mike

Personally, I would remove “This”. It’s the least clear to me when I see reactions on a post (and Like covers it, I think). IMHO, “Thanks” plays an important role when wanting to acknowledge someone’s post/contribution/work without necessarily wanting to endorse it. And, IMHO, I love the addition of the Heart - it plays a unique role, particularly with more personal posts or disclosures that warrant a warm heart reaction. Peace, Mike

Students are still off this week and go back to school on Monday. Peace, Mike

This is about what I was thinking, around a 35% Wednesday drop. From there, perhaps: THU: 6.1 (-10%) FRI: 10.4 (+70%) SAT: 16.6 (+60%) SUN: 11.6 (-30%) — WKND: 38.6 (-42.7%) Would be a strong hold from a holiday boosted weekend - given the calendar configuration - and significantly better than Rogue One. (Also pretty close to my official prediction…. 👀) I don’t pretend to be great at this though - anyone please let me know if you think my numbers don’t make sense. Peace, Mike

For others like me who are mesmerized by the world of Pandora, this is a great video. Peace, Mike

One reason could be the calendar configuration. No Way Home’s 3rd weekend was impacted by New Year’s Eve (falling on a Friday) like Way of Water (falling on a Saturday), but didn’t get the same Sunday boost as The Way of Water did with its calendar configuration. No Way Home’s Sunday functioned mostly like a regular Sunday (with a regular Monday), as folks didn’t get the holiday on the Monday. Way of Water, on the other hand, had a Friday and Sunday that functioned like Saturdays. This is something I’ve taken into consideration with my prediction - though whether I am right is whole ‘nother story. 😅 Peace, Mike

With an actual weekend gross of 67.4M, @stuart360 wins this - but @WrathOfHan was close to doing so. Actually, his prediction was closer than a majority of the predictions. I didn't see that coming! Peace, Mike

My more specific prediction: $37.94 million. Peace, Mike

The heart of the ocean! It’s beautiful. Really love this addition. Peace, Mike