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Everything posted by RamblinRed

  1. They are starting to film again in GA but it is sort of slow going. The latest Spider-Man movie did just get special permission to film at 2 Atlanta HS's in Jan. (Atlanta schools are all virtual right now and no events are allowed at them). Same HS's they used for the previous SM movies. GA actually films more 'blockbuster budget' films now than any other state due to its significant tax breaks.
  2. EU Drug Regulator saying HCQ given for COVID has been associated with cases of psychiatric disturbances and suicidal behavior. https://www.politico.eu/article/drugs-hyped-as-coronavirus-treatment-linked-to-psychiatric-disorders-says-ema/
  3. Good video update on when we may actually see vaccines start to hit arms in the US as well as some discussion on the AstraZeneca vaccines and why epidemiologists want to see more data https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/27/elizabeth-cohen-trump-vaccine-timeline-sot-nr-vpx.cnn
  4. This is a good article from the Atlanta newspape on CDC model estimates of deaths by mid December (in a worst case over 320K) and also the approval process for vaccines. The most enlightening part of the vaccine process is that it is unlikely that vaccine manufacturers will be able to meet the guidelines necessary to begin vaccinating the general public until next spring or summer. https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/cdc-us-covid-death-toll-could-reach-321k-by-mid-december/L36SZCSLPJHOFKU7YJ5AG247FY/ Before any vaccine is permitted in the U.S., it must be reviewed by the Food and Drug Administration, which requires study in thousands of people. Normally, the process to approve a new vaccine can take about a decade. But the federal government is using various methods to dramatically speed up the process for COVID-19 vaccines. During a health crisis, the FDA can loosen its normal scientific standards to allow emergency use of experimental drugs, devices, vaccines and other medical products. The first vaccines to get the provisional green light in the U.S. are almost certain to be made available under this process, known as emergency use authorization. In October, FDA officials told vaccine makers they should have two months of safety follow-up from half of the people enrolled in their studies before requesting emergency authorization. That data is expected to be enough for FDA to allow vaccinations of certain high-risk groups, such as front-line health workers and nursing home residents. Full approval of a vaccine will likely require six months of safety follow-up as well as extensive inspections of company manufacturing sites. The leading vaccine makers are not expected to complete that process until next spring or summer. Only then is the FDA expected to grant full approval, which would allow vaccinations of the general population.
  5. Really good Q&A with an epidemeologist https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/25/coronavirus-covid-increase-risky-decisions-pandemic-440522 Are your choices making the pandemic worse?
  6. 2284 deaths today. 7th highest of the entire pandemic and worst since May 7th. Also, the Positivity rate today is not good at all, almost 11% Finally, both CA (18K) and TX (15K) had record high case counts today. One death every 38 seconds. Happy Thanksgiving. Remember numbers are going to be both abnormally low and abnormally high over the next 7-10 days. Likely will have to wait until around Dec 7th to really know how bad of shape we are in.
  7. Keep in mind that Tuesday might be the last unaffected number for a week or so. If not today definitely will be. As the blog points out, it will be early December before the numbers start to normalize out again so don't pay much attention to high or low numbers for the next 10 days. It also points out that affects from Thanksgiving will not be seen in the data until the 2nd week of December due to the various time lags. Anything before that does not have to do with Thanksgiving. To put yesterday's death total in real terms. That's one American dying every 42 seconds. The 7 day avg is one American dying every 55 seconds. The total death toll is also something that is almost unimaginable at this point. If you took every person in the US who died by accident last year (car, home, work, drug over dose, etc - every one of them), add every person who committed suicide, then add every person who died from the flu, then add every person who was murdered (by any means, gun, knife, hands,etc) - add all that together and you get about how many people have been officially classified of dying from COVID in the US in less than 9 months.
  8. almost 1,000 deaths on a Monday. 7 day avg jumps over 1,500, Hospitalizations up to almost 86K The ones piece of good news is that the positivity rate is down some and 7 day cases flat.
  9. Was watching a doctor on TV last night and this was her biggest concern. She was asked when she thought we would be able to resume 'normal' life and her answer was that if everything went right and there were no hiccups then by next summer. Her concerns were largely with logistics. How do we get from producing it to getting it injected in someone's arm. Basically we are looking at the largest vaccination program in US history (this obviously goes for the rest of the world as well) and expecting everything to run like clockwork is probably not realistic. First you have to set up all the distribution chains necessary. Then you have to set up all the tracking of the vaccine. Every single vial has to be accounted for. Every single vial you have to know where it went, who got the dose, when they got the dose. That has to all be managed so everyone gets the 2 shots they are supposed to in the timeframe they are supposed to. It's a huge logistical lift. The Pfizer vaccine in particular has some supply chain hurdles to deal with. First, the amount of dry ice (which is the solid form of carbon dioxide) necessary is incredible. Dry ice producers are actually already running into shortages with all the orders coming in (some of this is due to the pandemic itself as one of the primary pipelines for dry ice is ethanol and with reduced driving there was reduced demand for ethanol which meant less excess CO2 for companies to sell to make dry ice). Second, due to the limited amount of time it can be stored that vaccine has be used quickly or it goes to waste.
  10. Every metric was still increasing last week - though at slower rates. Looks like we are seeing a slow leveling off of cases, but that still means 2-3 more weeks of increasing hospitalizations and deaths and then we could likely see the Thanksgiving effect happen, and that would be starting at such an elevated place that we could then burst through a 200K avg. All the traveling over Thanksgiving is just going to seed this everywhere (though i'm not sure how many places it isn't already highly seeded. - here in the SE the numbers are better than some other areas, but are starting to approach the highs of the summer surge).
  11. 889 deaths on a Sunday. That is really bad. One issue I suspect we will see though is that next week, especially toward the end of the week numbers will be down since it is a Holiday weekend and there will be people who think things are getting better.
  12. Agree with that. The much lower CFR makes a huge difference in that death count right now. Though it is really depressing that we are likely to easily surpass the death counts we saw in April.
  13. I can buy 2,500 avg deaths by 2nd week of December. The rate of cases to deaths has been pretty consistent since June. As long as cases continue to increase and hospitalizations continue to increase deaths are going to increase. It's a simple function of the time lag. Hospitalizations are up over 50% in the last 2 weeks and up about 75% in 3 weeks. Deaths will follow that. As of last night the avg death rate was almost 1,450. I'm most concerned with how long the numbers will stay at elevated levels. With Thanksgiving coming this week and Christmas 4 weeks later it's hard to see numbers decreasing at all. Canada has seen a significant rise in cases since their Thanksgiving.
  14. Important data collecting info to remember. Over the next 10 days or so data collection will not really be normal and weird results should be expected. Will have to wait until the week after Thanksgiving to get a strong sense of where things stand in the US. Given what has happened in Canada post their Thanksgiving i'm not optimistic. No release yet for tonight but US has had 3 straight days of over 1,800 deaths (will likely be a little lower today) and the 7 day avg deaths has increased by 200 in 2 days. The chart right now looks really similar to early April.
  15. FWIW, yesterday's deaths total was the 18th highest since the pandemic began in the US. The death numbers right now look very similar to the 1st-2nd week of April (4/7-4/12). Deaths peaked 2 weeks later- but of course at that time you had our shelter at home going on and you didn't have 2 Holidays and colder weather coming.
  16. Just f'ing vertical spikes everywhere. At the current rate hospitalizations would hit 100K on Thanksgiving. (I'm assuming BoF was down for a while. This is the first ive been able to access it in over a day)
  17. one of the scientists behind the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine says if everything goes well then we could have a normal winter next year. BioNTech co-founder Uğur Şahin told the BBC on Sunday that "this winter will be hard" and the vaccine "will not have a big impact on the infection numbers." https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccine-scientist-we-could-have-a-normal-winter-next-year/
  18. Hospitalizations are now higher than the highest estimate for the spring and deaths are now at the same level as the height of the summer surge. Three weeks ago the 7 day case avg was about 65K. Extrapolate that to today's death toll avg of 1,115 and then apply today's avg 7 day cases of 145K, and you are talking about closing in on 2,500 deaths per day in 3 weeks.
  19. So after Gov Whitmer imposes new restrictions in Michigan, Dr. Atlas tweets that people need to 'Rise Up' . https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/15/politics/scott-atlas-coronavirus-michigan/index.html
  20. I think this is what is likely to happen. A new Gallup poll has just 49% saying they would shelter in place if public health officials recommended it. It's not just that less than a majority of Americans are unwilling to say they're "very likely" to shelter in place. It's that they're currently not isolating. A clear majority (62%) said they were only partially isolated or not isolated at all in Gallup's late October poll. The percentage was half that (30%) in April. In an Axios/Ipsos poll conducted in late October, 53% admitted that they were not always maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet from other people when going outside their house. This was one of the highest numbers of the pandemic. Back in April, the percentage who said they weren't keeping a distance of at least 6 feet never rose above 34%. And while 46% of Americans said they haven't started making holiday plans yet, those who have are split fairly evenly between planning to celebrate among their immediate family and people they live with (30%) and with those outside this select group (24%). Perhaps what's most worrisome is that these poll numbers are coming against a backdrop of Americans seeming to realize the country is on the wrong path with how we're handling the virus. Most (61%) told Gallup that the coronavirus situation is getting worse. A mere 23% think it's getting better, one of the lower percentages of the pandemic so far. Despite Americans knowing we're on the wrong trajectory, it hasn't yet caused the type of change in habit that may be necessary to beat back the latest wave of cases.
  21. Yeah, I got into it with my brother who is a Trump Train person a couple of days ago. I refused to engage on Halloween when he made mention that it will probably all disappear after Nov 3. But after he responded to an email I had sent out to my family abouth the Pfizer vaccine I couldn't hold my tongue anymore. i got the whole host of hits - the we can't afford another shutdown strawman, the I don't believe the numbers - scientists are not being accurate, they still don't know about the virus, I also got the I have a right to my opinions and the right to vote for whoever i want to. And i said I absolutely agree with you on both of those things - but you don't have a right to your own facts. There is a process to determining a fact, it's not a fact just because someone says it, or 10,000 people say it, or it is said 10,000 times.
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