RamblinRed

Reviews may be starting to hurt here. Currently just 39% on Rotten Tomatoes (worse among top critics).

The 2 takeaways I have for these Fandango most anticipated is that there is some bias for movies earlier in the year (as GA has seen more advertising for them) and that in the end regardless of how 'anticipated' they are - they still have to deliver. If they aren't good movies (by how the GA judges them) then they will not perform well.

I wonder if TCP could negatively impact Wonka's legs. Both are musicals (even if Wonka seems to be hiding that in its advertising). While I wouldn't necessarily assume they have similar audiences, will some choose to see only TCP instead of Wonka if they think it is a better musical?

The title is more bullish than the article. The article says early tracking at $40M for the 4-day weekend with a range of 36-44. They then mention WB providing a $50M projection.

Glad to see HG:Boss is off to a solid start. Marvels is almost ridiculously bad. We are now talking about Marvels WW << AM:Q DOM.

IMO the biggest issue for Marvel right now is that it isn't making good movies. The cinemascores suggest that. My 20-yr old son's reaction to Marvel movies is all I need to see. Pre-COVID he was a have a see every Marvel movie opening night. Since COVID he has not seen any Marvel movie opening night and the only movies he seemed excited to see in a theater were NWH and AtSV (which are not even really MCU movies). He decided relatively early on based on the trailers that he could wait on MoM, LT, AM:Q and Marvels to come to D+ before watching them. And it is not because he hasn't seen the D+ shows, he has seen every one. He just hasn't found that the movies for the most part looked good enough that he should see them in a theater. Instead of seeing movies in a theater he and his friends now have a standing game night on Friday nights. The ceiling for all films (including Marvel movies) are lower post-COVID and the studios need to come to terms with that. They need to make fewer movies, that are perceived by the GA as entertaining and a good way to spend their money than they are now. They also have to figure out cost control as they simply cannot continue to spend the amount of money they are currently as most CBM's this year are going to be losses for the stufios.

I tend to see AtSV a little as its own thing and not a 'pure' CBM since it is animated rather than live action. But even if you include it, it appears only 2 CBM's are likely to turn a profit for movie studios this year, AtSV and GOTG3. Everything else is going to end up being somewhere between a loss and a major loss. That is something studios are going to have to react to. I think every reason that has been mentioned plays a part in the Marvels poor performance (and frankly the poor performance of CBM's in general). The zeitgeist for CBM's was the 2010's - but we are past that now. A good CBM will still make alot of money. But a mediocre to poor one is going to lose money. It's up to the studios to realize this and make better movies (at a lower cost) or CBM's will start to have a long term negative bottom line on profits. We are in a different environment than we were 4 years ago. I think the overall ceiling for movies is lower than it was pre-pandemic. Fewer people are going to the movies and I don't really see that changing. I hardly think CBM's are going the way of Westerns, but I no longer see them as a dominant force at the theaters. My 20-yr old son sort of exemplifies this. Before COVID he was an opening night viewer of Marvel and SW movies. That is no longer the case. And it is not because he doesn't like Marvel or hasn't seen the D+ shows (he has seen every one of them). He hasn't seen any Marvel movie post-COVID on opening night. The only CBMs he was excited to see in theaters were SM:NWH and AtSV. He made the decision pretty early on that The Marvels and AM:Q were films he was happy to wait until they were on D+ to watch. (he largely felt the same way about MoM and especially LT). From the trailers he did not see them as 'good enough' movies that he wanted to see them in a theater. He is much more picky about what he is willing to see in a theater and he sees far fewer movies in theaters than he did pre-COVID (at best he sees 1/3 as many movies now in theaters as pre-COVID). He is more interested in having game night with his friends than movie night with them and they now have a game night every Friday night. He watched FNAF - but he watched it on Peacock, not in a theater. He wasn't interest in seeing it in a theater but was happy to watch it on streaming. I think the combination of COVID and a raft of mediocre to poor movies in his preferred movie genres has led him to decide that movie going just isn't as important part of his life as they were pre-COVID.

I agree with Porthos comments, but at the end of the day the most important factor in why The Marvels performed poorly is very simple- it is another Marvel movie that is not seen as a quality movie that needs to be seen. Cinemascore is all you really need to see. DS MoM - B+ Thor:L&T - B+ BP:WF - A AM:Q - B GOTG3 - A Marvels - B Marvel right now is not making good movies. It used to be an 'A' machine in cinemascore, but 4 of its last 6 movies have been B or B+. The 2nd biggest reason, it isn't the 2010's anymore. That was the decade of CBM movies. The 2020's doesn't look like it will be. Every genre has its apex. For CBM's it looks like the 2010's. Not that there still won't be CBM's - highly successful ones, just that they will not automatically dominate anymore. This year only 2 live action CBM's are in the Top 10 both DOM and WW and neither is in the Top 3. I think both Marvel and WB need to come to terms that most CBM's are not going to be the monster hits they used to be and they better fix their budgets or they will start to become drags on the studios. It looks like GOTG3 will be the only live action CBM this year that is not a money loser for a studio. Expense control needs to become much more important and consistent for CBM's. I'd take the under $100M DOM for The Marvels right now. It is going to need around a 2.2X multiplier to get to 100, that seems unlikely even with the Holidays. Movies that don't perform die quickly - doesn't really matter if there are better options. If WoM is not strong GA doesn't go to see a movie, automatic movie going is sort of a thing of the past, the ceiling is lower now. There are alot of new movies coming out over the next couple of weeks. That hurts regardless of whether they are good or not because they all demand screen space, so Marvels could very quickly be on just 1 or 2 screens in most theaters.

So it looks like about $570M +- 5 final total. Underperformances in DOM, Korea and China (3 of its 5 largest markets historically) ultimately held the total down. The good late legs in US help but only a little. Thinking about another $15M in DOM and $10-12M International, based on current drops. Korea was just a straight underperformance. Barbie didn't do well there and Oppy just opened this week after MI's run is basically over (should crawl to just over $30M there). We already know about China. You just can't assume big numbers there anymore. DOM was the one impacted by Barbieheimer, but frankly I think SoF was a bigger issue there. Nobody knew anything about that movie and had no idea it would explode. Indiana Jones didn't do well but did enough to also have a negative impact. It ended up in a slot that was more crowded than expected with direct competitors and it simply wasn't loved enough by DOM audiences to dominate those. I do expect DR2 to recover and do more in the 650-675M range.

BoP's 26M prediction seems like a great o/u for BB. That would be around 8X. As someone else mentioned the Friday numbers did not look impressive in the tracking thread, but solid word of mouth should help. Strays had 275K in EA so Thur previews were $825K.

Good predictions on both everyone.

pre-sale tracking should start in the next day or two, but unfortunately pre-release tracking has been in the sub Shazam 2 range. We'll have a sense by the end of this week whether it is truly going to go that low or if it might exceed (admittedly low) expectations.

As I mentioned yesterday in the International thread, MI:7 is largely underperforming in the DOM and Asian markets. Top 6 markets for MI have been DOM, China, South Korea, Japan, UK and France. Those 6 markets generally contribute close to 70% of MI's revenue, So far with MI:7 it is 61%. UK has been the most consistent. Basically MI movies make $30M +-2 there. France is underperforming slightly but not a huge amount. The DOM market is likely going to end up underperforming the previous 3 movie avg by around $40M. in China it is underperforming the previous three release avg by almost $100M. South Korea is going to end up somewhere between $15-20M below the previous 3 movie avg. Have to wait and see what happens with Japan. But right there that is a drop of $155-160M drop from the previous 3 movie avg. I'm expecting MI:7 to make around $170M DOM (below Indy 5 and SoF and above Transformers) and around $550-575 WW. In China the new cap for Hollywood movies looks to be around $100M. I think DR2 will recover to 200-210 in the DOM market. Maybe SK will improve next time, but that is one market that has had 0 interaction with Barbieheimer. So right now I'm thinking something close to GP and RN in WW Take - $660-670M give or take a little for DR2. Fallout looks like a 1 movie outlier, not a new normal.

Despite losing alot of screens it had a smaller drop than every other film in the Top 10, with the exception of SoF - which dropped 35% and added 126 theaters.

Seems like $550M is a more likely target at this point. Probably another $30M or so DOM, $75-85M International. Another $100-110 total. The underperformance in DOM and Asia is what is making the huge difference. Since 2011 the top 6 markets for MI movies have been DOM, China, South Korea, Japan, UK, and France. They consistently account for close to 70% of its total take. So far in this run those 6 markets are accounting for 61%. Some other markets have grown to help its take, but they hardly offset the underperformance in its largest markets. This movie is going to be on par for UK - where it is amazingly consistent. An MI movie in UK is basically going to be $30M +-2. France will be close to its historical norms. But the other markets, ouch. The DOM and Asian markets are a mess for this movie and Barbieheimer really only affects the DOM market. DOM probably has about another $30M in the tank. Get it to around $170 million. It will finish behind both Indy 5 and Sound of Freedom in the DOM market. Barbieheimer hurt it alot, but so did Sound of Freedom. $170 would be about $40M below the avg for the previous 3 movies and $50M below Fallout. China was poor, but that should not be a surprise. China is no longer a big market for US movies an probably will not be for some time, getting to $100M in the market would be a huge win for any Hollywood movie. It's take in China is down $135M from Fallout and $94M from the 3 previous MI movie avg. South Korea and Japan have had pretty similar numbers for MI movies and are 3rd and 4th overall behind DOM and China. We will have to see what happens in Japan where it is really just getting started, but it is getting close to the end of its run in SK where it is likely to end up between $30-35M overall. Probably end up about $15M below the avg and $17M below fallout. Barbieheimer is not a factor here as Barbie is not doing well in SK and Oppenheimer isn't even released yet. So where does that put the prospects for DR2. Let's say it performs closer to the top Hollywood movies in China and grosses closer to $100M. That would be $50M more than DR1. DOM could probably end up closer to its avg of $210M which would be $40M additional. Maybe SK recovers to its normal and adds another $15M. So that would be $105M more than DR1, so maybe $660-670. That looks like a good benchmark to see if DR2 can hit. Somewhere close to GP and RN WW.

What kind of final numbers (admissions and $) are we estimating for Elemental and MI:7?

Elemental after a big jump yesterday had a nice hold for Wednesday, has been ahead of Indy the past 2 days. Could Elemental end up ahead of MI:7?

Article on Steven Spielberg and Paul McCartney seeing Oppenheimer together in the Hampton's this week. Includes a picture of them. https://people.com/steven-spielberg-paul-mccartney-see-oppenheimer-in-theaters-7565716

What an amazing weekend for the box office and a great Monday. I will point out that summer weekdays start to decrease next week as schools start to go back into session. Here in metro Atlanta - Cherokee, Forsyth, Gwinnett and Cobb county schools all go back into session next week (4 of the 6 largest metro Atlanta districts) and then all the other metro Atlanta school systems go back into session the following week, This is not unusual as schools in the US South tends to get out earlier in the Spring (usually before Memorial day) than schools in the North and go back sooner in the later part of summer. Summer weekdays will decrease every week in August as schools start going back into session. This week is the last week that will have 100% of schools out.

I'm not sure I agree with this. If the tickets are only being counted when they are used, then the grosses are an accurate reflection of of usage. In that case, who cares who paid for it? It is being used. The only thing that is different from what we are used to is that when I buy my son a ticket, I know my son is the one using that ticket - but he didn't pay for it, I did. So I know who used the extra ticket I bought. In this case the pay it forward person doesn't know who is using that ticket, but we know that the ticket is being used all the same. It's no different than going through a toll booth, or a drive thru and paying for the person behind me. I don't really know much about this movie other than it has clearly resonated with a significant portion of the GA.

So if that is the case, then the gross numbers are true gross numbers of people using tickets (and someone paying for them). I don't see how that is an issue at all. Is it confirmed that Friday's totals for MI:7 include the Early Access shows? If so does that mean true friday is closer to $14M? $78M is going to require a pretty big Saturday jump to get there. The last 2 installments have made 2.80 and 2.84 after their first 5 days (+ previews), so if MI:7 holds to that, then we are looking at a $220-$225 if you take the $78M.

What percentage of tickets sold for SoF Are the pay it forward tickets counted toward the gross when they are purchased or when they are used? Even if you take 10% away its numbers are sort of astonishing.

If they really wanted to go all out after the AMPTP they should have actors asking people to boycott movie going and drop their streaming subscriptions.

Unfortunately it looks like it was just the Orlando market since it ended up at 8.3 instead of 12. Today's jump is going to be all important for MI:7.

I think China is done as a large market for American movies for awhile. IMO, the geopolitical situation plays into that. It's just unrealistic to expect any Hollywood movie to do large business in China. SOF is maybe the biggest surprise for me since Passion of Christ. Sort of reminds me that while most big American blockbusters are now made in Atlanta rather than Hollywood, it is still Hollywood studios that drive what movies get made. Hollywood is largely made up of Coastal city elites making movies that appeal to Coastal city denizens. I think movies like TGM and SOF show that there is alot of money to be made if Hollywood wants to make movies that appeal to the non Coastal, city population, but that is not what Hollywood wants to make for the most part. Note, that doesn't mean you have to pander to others. Just make movies they can relate to and identify with. As far as MI:7. I think we need to give it some time to see legs rather than make alot of hot takes. I was hoping there would be a TGM halo effect, but that really doesn't seem to be the case. I expect it to perform in the same range as most other MI movies, just like I expect Oppenheimer to perform in the general Nolan range. Barbie looks like the one (along with SOF) that is going to explode, which Hollywood can really use right now.