RamblinRed

Minions needs to get to $334.9M to match Cars 2 2.9X multiplier. That is starting to look unlikely. Minions has given back $18M off its lead over IO in the last 10 days (Minions had a $33.7M lead after 7 days). It now looks like IO could gross more its first month than Minions will (based on a 30-31 day month). Also looks like IO will just edge out JW this weekend like last weekend. Not a big enough Saturday for JW to offset the generally higher FRI and SUN numbers that IO tends to post. Congrats to JW to moving into 3rd all time. Ant-Man despite relatively mediocre numbers looks like it will top a second weekend. This is just such a weak weekend all around.

I also have a difficult time when comparing movies with multiple releases. For example, imo, in unadjusted grosses, both TA and JW have already passed Titanic it seems disingenuous to include re-release revenue with original revenue.

Great hold for IO. It's Thursday holds have been excellent +1 +4 -16 (post July 4th week) -14 -2

Do the studios really believe it gives them extra revenue or does it simply spread out the revenue it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer timeframe? I have a hard time buying that most of the previews add even 1% to the take of the revenue for opening weekend. My belief is that more likely it simply spreads out what it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer time frame. The one exception would be a film with incredibly strong WOM, where that extra night might lead to more people seeing by Sunday night as WOM filters out. But my gut is unless you have JW or IO level WOM it simply is going to have a negligible impact on the bottom line revenue.

First off let me say that I am glad I found this forum - I used to pop by BOM and then those disappeared and i had no idea where everyone went. Second, I would expect the LA shooting to have some effect this weekend - to think otherwise is likely very naive. It isn't going to have the same effect as Aurora, but it is still the top story on CNN, on my local newspaper, etc. Third, does every movie now have a preview (or should I say an extra half day which is what they really seem to be now)? And if so why? I just don't feel most movies need previews. Did anyone really think either of these movies were going to make anything significant at all in previews? That seems so unlikely.

It opens in a good chunk of Europe this week. It's Australian performance has been one of the more interesting ones, it opened its first weekend 3rd - behind the 2nd week of JW and 1st week of Minions. It's 2nd weekend it dropped to 4th behind JW, 1st week Ted2, and Minions Third weekend it rebounded to third behind first week of TG and Minions and went up from $2.4M to $3.3M Fourth weekend it rose to first ahead of 1st week of MMXXL, Minions and TG and rose again up to $4.2M. That's not something you see a ton of from movies. it's last 2 weekends there it has grown by 75%.

The various school systems in Atlanta go back either the first or second week of August. So 1 to 2 more weeks of school for most of the kids. This is not unusual in the SE. Most of the school systems down here get out of school by Memorial Day and go back in early to mid August.

Strong Tuesday jump for Minions. Have to see how it does the rest of the week, then we'll have a good sense of how leggy it can be. Tuesday's have been much stronger this summer than previous summers.

Beautiful trailer The contrast between the more cartoonish looking dinosaurs with the backgrounds that look like photos is amazing.

Good hold for IO. Only 53% drop from Sunday and 34% Mon-Mon.

Since the primary purpose of Minions is to sell merchandise any amount that covered production costs would be a success. It's no different than Cars 2 is for Disney. While it was one of Pixar's lowest grossing films, it was a huge profit maker for Disney which made well over $1B in gross sales off of it. (not including continual sales years later). The numbers are interesting in that they suggest legs may not be great (especially for a kids film).

Excellent start for TW. Very good holds for both JW and IO. Just 90K difference between them on the weekend. IO was up 116K on Friday, JW up 103K on Saturday (it has been a huge Saturday movie all summer), IO up 76K on Sunday. Will be fun again next weekend, those 2 should just get a room together given how close they continue to track. Not a good hold for Minions (not that it matters as like Cars 2 the whole point is to get people to buy merchandise and they are killing that in addition to big movie numbers overall). Compared to IO's second weekend it was down 415K on Friday, 906K on Saturday and 1.728M on Sunday. One more week should give us a strong read on what sort of legs it really has - though that 340-350 number by a2k sounds about right. Any thoughts of TG somehow squeaking to 100M are gone after this weekend's 60% drop.

Didn't realize until today how much of the international market IO still has to open in. it has a very strange release schedule - literally almost 4 months from first to last rollout. it hasn't opened yet in alot of the European and Asian markets. UK/Ireland is next weekend. Japan was this last weekend. Heck Germany and Austria it doesn't open until October 1st. I guess that is giving Disney alot of time to ramp up WOM. Sort of interesting that IO and Minions largely stayed out of each other's way. IO had a month with Domestic while Minions had over a month in international markets without each other. Here are territories it still has to open in (or just opened this weekend). Netherlands 15 July 2015 Spain 17 July 2015 Japan 18 July 2015 UK 19 July 2015 (London) (premiere) Hong Kong 23 July 2015 UK 24 July 2015 Ireland 24 July 2015 Trinidad and Tobago 29 July 2015 Indonesia August 2015 Estonia 7 August 2015 Thailand 12 August 2015 Lithuania 14 August 2015 Philippines 19 August 2015 Georgia 20 August 2015 Cambodia 20 August 2015 Malaysia 20 August 2015 Norway 21 August 2015 Vietnam 21 August 2015 Denmark 27 August 2015 Singapore 27 August 2015 Finland 28 August 2015 Sweden 28 August 2015 China 1 September 2015 Greece 3 September 2015 Italy 16 September 2015 Jordan 24 September 2015 Austria 1 October 2015 Germany 1 October 2015

I thought this was an interesting article to read. http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/box-office/36226/tracking-softly-and-writing-films-off-before-release

Personally I don't think Avatar holds up well unless you see it in a theater in 3D. I didn't - I saw it after it was released on DVD and frankly couldn't understand what all the fuss was about. it doesn't hold my interest in home viewing very well. JW is a fun summer movie - not one I would have expected to make as much as it has, but that is fine, it clearly has caught the GA's imagination. I would give it a 7/10. The 2 things that hold it back for me and why one viewing in the theater was enough for me was first, the script is pretty much a pale imitation of the original. Second, there is simply 0 chemistry between BDH and CP. There wasn't a single minute in the movie where I felt like they liked each other, hated each other, or had feelings about each other one way or the other. For whatever reason, they simply didn't work for me at all in their personal interactions. I am still glad I saw it in the theaters though. I'll also add that the success of JW has me more bullish on how high SW7 will go because in my mind there are alot of similarities to them (both set a generation in the future, both franchises that have been dormant on the big screen for a decade or more, both revisiting well loved old characters and/or locations).

I would disagree with the characterization of Star Wars being handled the same way as Marvel. In Marvel all the movies seem to have to tie in to each other. That is not what Star Wars is doing. There will be the trilogy movies which will obviously work off each other. But the Anthology movies are different. They are not designed to be related directly to the trilogy movies - there aren't even the same time periods. The first one is basically set around the time of New Hope. We'll have to see when the exact settings of the others will be. i actually like that. Some that will be related and some that will be stand alone.

Minions outgrossed IO by 6,000 its first Thursday. It's second weekend should start to tell us alot about that movie. I could see anywhere from 50 to 60 for it depending upon how strong a weekend movie it is. great hold by JW. it is going to pass TA by at least 20M, sorry. Solid hold for IO. it continues to be fun to watch IO and JW almost move in perfect tandem. Going to be close again this weekend. I don't see TG at 82 by Sunday. 81 and a little change is where I think it is going to be. i think Ant-Man ends up between 65-70 after pretty solid previews. More than I thought it would get. am I weird for wanting to see both Ant-Man (with my son) and TW (with my wife).

So are most thinking the following for the weekend 1. Ant-man 2. Minions 3. Trainwreck 4. IO 5. JW I've got a 12 yr old son at home so i've started to see a ton of Ant-Man commercials in the last week or so and I will say they have been enjoyable and have me thinking i'd like to see the movie with him. I'm guessing close to $70M for Ant-man - give or take a million or 2. Minions seems to be looking at 55-60M weekend 2. Trainwreck should take 3rd pretty easy and then we have the 2 partners - JW and IO. JW finished last weekend up by 500K. My gut is that Ant-man and Trainwreck combined take a little more from JW than IO, so they might flip from last weekend and still likely be within 500K of each other one way or the other.

Just my thoughts on a couple of the topics in this thread. Honestly I think its 50/50 that SW7 get to $650M. i think that team has done just about everything right to this point - it's simply a matter of delivering a good movie. They absolutely killed it at Comic Con last weekend based on the reports from there. They have definately gone out of their way to try to tie it more to the originals than the prequels. Making sure you saw they filmed on location rather than green screen, used puppets and actors for most creatures rather than CGI, etc. Having both the original characters in a supporting role as well as a sequel story rather than a prequel story i think helps and could easily add 10-15% to the gross. Kasdan was quoted last weekend saying it would be an economical movie, not a bloated one, so i'm thinking a 2 hr to 2 hr 10 min run time which will allow them to squeeze more showings. My son and i will definately be seeing that one, though I will likely wait at least 2-3 weeks to let the crowds die down some -i'm not one of the fanboys that needs to see it opening night. Also, latest tracking from July 3 had Ant-Man at around $65M this weekend (up from earlier projections of 50-55M). We'll have to see if it can get there. one last thought on kiddie movies (since I have kids) - the first showing of the movie is on the kid - parents will take them almost no matter what - but to get return visits it has to be good enough for the parent to be willing to go back. We've seen IO twice because everyone wanted to see it again. Saw Minions this weekend, really youth oriented, I didn't really care for it much - even with Sandy who i tend to love in everything felt sort of miscast. I don't plan on seeing that one again. For me personally it was the weakest movie i've seen this year - lower on my list than Tomorrowland - which had been my lowest to this point. There is a point that parents will say that's enough let's find something else. But based on opening week I would think Minions goes to $350M +-10M.

Sorry I should have phrased that better. Actually if you include the 21st, the total difference between the two is almost the same it just flips from IO having more revenue to JW. Really impressive runs by both.

As of June 21st JW had earned $402.8M. It now has $590.7M. As of June 21st IO had earned $90.4M. it now has $284.2M Subtract the first number from the second and you get the totals.

Excellent hold for IO, it almost managed to sneak past JW for the weekend, the FRI-SUN splits are so interesting FRI IO 5.469 JW 5.419 SAT IO 6.957 JW 7.432 SUN IO 5.238 JW 5.299 FRI and SUN they were less than 60K apart both days. once again Saturday was the difference maker for JW. Since June 21st the totals by the 2 films are IO 193,755,828 JW 187,889,530 it's amazing to me they have stayed that close for over 3 weeks now. With Ant Man and Trainwrecked coming out next week it wouldn't surprise me to see IO jump ever so slightly ahead of JW next weekend as I could see those hitting JW just slightly harder. Very impressive for both films. IO will pass MI on tuesday and Up on either Wednesday or Thursday and cross $300M next weekend. I have no love for Minions, but a very impressive opening. Looking forward to seeing how leggy it is. Don't mind it not passing S3 as why replace one weak animated film with another in the record book. At some point it will go down, just not quite yet i guess.

you can't even really compare preview numbers anymore to previews of even a couple of years ago due to how far back they are moving them. Showing previews at 6 pm is not showing previews anymore, it's just grabbing an extra day and giving 2 day totals in 1 day. Think about Minions. it started showing previews at 6 pm. Which means a theater is able to show 3 shows on a single screen by midnight. Given how many screens this is on, that means in some movie houses you are talking double digit viewings. Probably only JW and IO had more total screenings on Thur than Minions. The rule i'd institute for counting returns would be pretty simple. If you show any viewings starting before movie run time + 30 min than the returns count for that day. So for Minions that would basically mean if you show any previews before 9:45 pm (1:44 run time + 30 min)- then all returns count toward Thursday not Friday. They simply aren't previews any more - it is simply another day. Note this is not just about Minions. Most movies would have to count previews as that day's total with this rule. Previews are getting like shopping on Thanksgiving, it simply keeps getting moved earlier and earlier.

you can't even really compare preview numbers anymore to previews of even a couple of years ago due to how far back they are moving them. Showing previews at 6 pm is not showing previews anymore, it's just grabbing an extra day and giving 2 day totals in 1 day. Think about Minions. it started showing previews at 6 pm. Which means a theater is able to show 3 shows on a single screen by midnight. Given how many screens this is on, that means in some movie houses you are talking double digit viewings. Probably only JW and IO had more total screenings on Thur than Minions. The rule i'd institute for counting returns would be pretty simple. If you show any viewings starting before movie run time + 30 min than the returns count for that day. So for Minions that would basically mean if you show any previews before 9:45 pm (1:44 run time + 30 min)- then all returns count toward Thursday not Friday. They simply aren't previews any more - it is simply another day. Note this is not just about Minions. Most movies would have to count previews as that day's total with this rule. Previews are getting like shopping on Thanksgiving, it simply keeps getting moved earlier and earlier.

This won't matter opening week at all - if ever, but the reviews have really turned on Minions today. it is now down to a 58% - rotten rating on RT and its average has dipped down below 6. Reviews that have posted today have run 3-1 negative. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues and whether it will have any long term impact on the movie.