RamblinRed

I'm just interested in seeing how the whole weekend plays out and how much effect Juneteenth will have. I expect the Juneteenth effect will be lower than any other Holiday weekend. The US made it a Holiday last year, and as of this weekend only 17 states have made it a State Paid holiday, Based on some surveys the majority of private companies have not provided it as a day off to their employees. It's sort of a half Holiday right now. Only Federal employees definitely have the 20th off. A little over 40% of state employees have it as a paid holiday and less than 1/2 of private employees.

This makes alot of sense to me. Most movie productions are made on the coasts and the majority of those that make and finance movies lean liberal, so the majority of movies are going to tend to reflect their sensibilities. The divide they are talking about may largely be a supply issue - ie, Hollywood is not making enough movies that appeal to more conservative (and given the Independent numbers) moderate moviegoers so they go out less because there are fewer films that interest them. TGM's results suggest Hollywood is leaving money on the table and also potentially hurting theaters outside the coasts by not having a broad enough product range. FWIW, I don't really expect this to change much, if anything I expect the difference to widen.

Looks like a solid number to me. Let's see how the weekend plays out now. How much will people be willing to see a movie rather than be outside with friends. That is sort of the variable to me. But i'm pleased with the preview number. I think this is an important release for Disney just in terms of figuring out what their model is going to be going forward. Will they go to a dedicated movie premiere in 2022 or are they going to move more toward moe premieres with a PA option.

Really happy for Free Guy. That and JC had strong holds. Good start for PP. Hopefully FG will encourage a future system with a 30-45 exclusive window and then to streaming, but we will see, JC argues you can do a PA and still have good legs if your film is well received. My impression before the year even started was WB's slate for 2021 wasn't very strong and it certainly hasn't been. That may be part of the reason they are willing to just let them all go day and date to HBOMax. TSS has done well in a couple of places - like UK and Australia, but there are also places where it really has not done very well. Even without day and date i'm not sure it could have done much more than 200M.

D'Alessandro is doing some impressive rah-rah writing in that piece. It feels like he is just trying to will SC to a big opening. So far polling suggests there has been little change in behavior - about a 5% drop in people going out and it feels like we are seeing that in weekend totals. So I think he is largely correct that there is little impact to the box office based on the delta variant so far. Hopefully for the movie industry it stays that way, though it numbers keep climbing at some point there will be a drop.

A someone who is not a comic book guy, this is sort of how I feel. The first trailer for Eternals was pretty meh. Neither SC or Eternals has really caught my eye to this point. SC will definitely be a watch when it gets to streaming. Eternals, we'll see how the pandemic looks when it is coming out and whether the promotion gets any better for it, probably a maybe at best for me right now. Bond and Spider-Man two most likely films I might see assuming the COVID numbers are under control by then. Also, just wanted to say how happy I am to see FG's numbers. The promos for that movie looked like alot of fun. I feel like that should have a good run in the theaters. TSS numbers have to be really disappointing for WB. With less than 25M in WW gross this weekend will it make it to 200M total? The promotion for that was not very good. From a distance I feel like the uber fans loved it, but everyone else was much more mixed.

Ultimately the studios are going to go to whatever model they think maximizes their revenue. IMO that would seem to suggest a dedicated theatrical window that they will figure out (I expect once their share of the revenue declines relative to the Movie theater that is when they will look to offer a movie on PVOD) and then a PVOD release and eventually a free release. Also, good on Disney for really putting a push behind FG, I saw alot of ads for it. Now I am not going into movie theaters right now so i will have to wait for it to go to streaming, but it looks fun, Much like FG is not a negative for JC, I expect SC will not be a negative for FG. Have to assume Disney will have those 2 paired as double features. And that might even be a positive for SC.

The reasons for films dropping hard in week 2 are multiple, not one thing. First, there are only so many people willing to go see movies in the theaters right now due to a pandemic. For alot of these movies there are burning alot of that demand off in week 1. Second, streaming gives customers more choice into when and where they watch it. I think WB is in the worst position here since they have been giving the movie away for free. At least Disney is doing PA which helps recover some revenue. WOM still matters. While the critic rating for TSS is high, the audience scores are good but not great (same with BW). TSS had high initial reactions but that is basically the fan boys/girls. As more GA types saw it the ratings went down a fair bit, so it clearly is not liked by the GA as much as it is by the true fans. JC was not a hit for critics but it is for GA where it is one of the more highly rated films of the summer, so it shouldn't be surprising that its legs are strong while TSS and BW are less so. The Theater business is not dying, but it is evolving. It is not going to be the same as it was in 2019. At the very least we are likely headed to shorter release windows, which will reduce the theaterical revenue for a film. But that makes sense from a company standpoint as the entertainment companies make more money from a film in its first few weeks than later on in a run. We will have to wait and see if they stick with the day and date strategy at all. Do they do it for only some movies? etc. We are in a different time right now and it is unfair to compare movie performances now to 2019 and before. The environment is just too different.

Seems like ok numbers for all 3 based on the environment we are in. I'd be happy if FG can get to mid 20's. Will be interested to see where we stand on Sunday (also interested to see what the drop is for TSS this weekend).

Really hoping this can overperform this weekend. The commercials looks fun.

The issue there though is 777K for Disney is probably worth more than the 2.8M for TSS. Disney having a Premium tier guarantees they make money on the streaming. WB isn't getting any premium fees, at best they are getting new subscriptions, but out of the 2.8M, how many are new subscriptions? That is the important metric.

I agree with this. Just from a family standpoint the last week has changed the perspectives in my family. Usually my son and I see the Marvel movies together. We did not go see BW in the theaters as he isn't comfortable going inside building with lots of people, unless everyone is masked. He was starting to hint that he was getting more comfortable, but after last week he has definitely changed his mind. I think it will now be at least October until he is willing to entertain going to a movie theater and my wife who is a little older than me and has some health issues isn't even thinking about seeing movies in theaters and I doubt she will get to that point until sometime in 2022. Both of them nixed going to eat indoors at restaurants this weekend. Even though we are all vaccinated, unless a building has both mask requirements and social distancing requirements they are back to not being willing to go inside. Frankly, both of them would be happy if proof of vaccination was required to enter buildings, and even then they would want masks to be worn given it has been shown that the delta variant can transmit from vaccinated to vaccinated indidivuals.

I think numbers are likely to get worse from here on out for multiple reasons. First, we are still in a pandemic that is now in a worsening phase in the US and is getting alot of media attention that it is getting worse. The CDC recommendation that everyone regardless of vaccination status should wear a mask indoors in areas of 'high' or 'substantial' spread is just going to start depressing turnout more. Schools are starting back up. All the big systems here in metro Atlanta start school next week. Most schools in the South start in the next week or two. So you will see natural reduction in revenue. Finally, I think most overestimate how many people want to go to the movies. I think it is still mostly the more hard core movie fans. I believe a good portion of the GA is still staying away and may be unlikely to return until 2022 sometime. I think that is part of the reason we keep seeing 65%+ drops in week 2. The people that really want to see a movie in a theater see it opening weekend and then there simply is little demand after that point. Others will pay or wait to see for free on streaming.

People are not really doing an apple to apple comparison with the PA number. Yes, $60M means 2M subscriptions were paid for, but that hardly means only 2M people watched it on PA. It is more realistic to think that the number that watched it on PA is at least 3-4 times that 2M number. My family of 3 will be watching it on PA when we get some free time. i expect that if you wanted to relate it back to the theaters it would translate to an extra 6-8M tickets sold. It also shows that no matter what we want to think we are not past the pandemic,, and likely won't be for some time yet. Maybe not until 2022. Most countries have much lower vaccination rates than the US (heck Japan isn't allowing any spectators at the Olympics). Until the world catches up to at least where the US is, the full Theater market will not fully recover. Given the current environment I think the numbers are actually pretty solid. It will be interestig to see how Disney reacts to these numbers. That will tell us more about how sucessful they think the opening is.

I expect Disney will be very happy with these numbers. In general the MCU super-fans will go to the theaters, but some of the more casual fans may choose to watch on D+ instead. My son and I usually go opening night for MCU movies but my son is not yet comfortable going into buildings with large numbers of people (and I don't know when that is going to change), so this is going to be a D+ movie for us with maybe a late viewing of it in the theaters if my son is more comfortable by then. The streaming options are more consumer friendly, if less theater friendly, giving consumers more choices in how to view content. The only issue is what is the long term statis going to be. Will companies stick with day and date, or will they move to a model of 30 days or so in a theater and then a streaming option. To some extent that will likely depend upon what the Entertainment companies see in the numbers over the next 6 months. It is nice to be talking about movies again though.

My main takeaway is that the film is the classic niche product. It has very deep support among a very narrow audience. It looks like WB tried to expand the support outside its natural niche and was just unable to do so. It also appears to have an issue for any musical looking to succeed. I don't hear any music from it breaking out anywhere. Hamilton, Greatest Showman, etc, had songs that were all over the place. I haven't heard a single song from the musical outside of watching ITH this weekend on Max. It was also likely overhyped within its bubble. It's basic core group is musical theater fans, Domincan Repuclic natives and some of the intelligista on the NE and West Coasts. Outside of that it just doesn't appear to be attracting large groups from anywhere else. Maybe it also suffers from being a short term musical as well. This only ran on Broadway for a couple of years. Not like it had been around for many years growing a fanbase. The only other observation I can give in my anecdotal family observation. Three of us watched it this weekend. My wife and I both liked it. My son, who usually likes musical films, didn't have a strong positive reaction to it. It just didn't seem to hold his interest.

Well this means I don't have to switch between Roku and Chromecast on Christmas Day so I can watch both Soul and WW84 with just the Roku.

Disney during its investor Day said it was aiming for 240-260M subs by 2024 (I assume that is a worldwide number). Based on what came out of that day my impression of Disney's long term plan is that if you take the 17-20 movies per year they had been doing, I think the big tentpoles (probably 7-8 per yr) - Marvel, SW, the occasional Pixar and WDA will go to Cinema. The next tier are more likely to become same day releases with premium access in Disney+ (that's probably abother 6-8 movies) and then everything else goes straight to one of their streaming platforms - Disney+, Hulu, etc.

Her's is going to be the next SW movie followed by the SW movie Taika Waititi is working on.

i think the only thing this weekend confirms is that the movie industry has a huge worldwide issue (it's called a pandemic) and it is likely to be a big issue for at least another 6-8 months. The numbers in the Domestic market just go to show that all the surveys over the last couple of months where only indoor music concerts had a lower percentage of people willing to see them were correct. Generally no more than 20% of Americans have said they would be comfortable going to a movie theater. As long as that is the case then any big movie is a no go for release. It's not even about how many theaters and seats are available. It is about how many GA are willing to show up and right now every polling suggests it is a small number. Europe is only better in comparison to the US. it's year over year numbers are significantly down and Tenet is doing ok because it is the only big movie out and so can dominate the number of screens and seats in a social distancing formula, But that also means you can't really have more than 1 big movie a month for any tentpole type movie to have any chance to make money, otherwise the screens get split and the number of seats available plummets. A model with only one big release per month won't work for most studios and you think about the summer months and the Holiday seasons when tentpole movies are being released on top of each other - that is not something that can be done right now anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. The bigger issue no one is dealing with yet is how quickly is this all going to go downhill in October/November in the Northern Hemisphere when the weather changes and people are mostly indoors. I expect a strong health push for people not to go anywhere with indoor crowds (theaters would certainly fit that bill) starting in Oct/Nov and running to at least Feb/Mar. IMO the Holiday season is likely to be largely a lost season. I could see it easily being next April or May before we are in a spot where we can start to release tentpole type movies. it will likely have to be after the winter flu season and hopefully after a working vaccine is released and has been distributed wide enough to make a difference. Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned Disney, right now this is something of an existential crisis for them. Their whole model is based on having large groups of people close together - whether that be in a theme park, a movie theater, a cruise ship, a hotel, etc. None of those are doable right now, which is why their revenue plunged last quarter over 93%. This week they are planning on shortening their hours at WDW because the numbers visiting have been smaller than expected. They are actually one company that desperately needs the pandemic to be brought under control because until it does they are going to hemmorage money. Whatever happens we are likely to see alot less movies made over the next couple of years simply because the studios are not going to have as much money to make movies.

Onward is on Disney+ this morning.

I'm starting to think about how many movies are never going to get made now, and even how many that had been greenlighted end up not being made because the movie studios are going to be lacking revenue to make movies. Movie studios are going to lose alot of potential revenue this year with theaters closed that would have been used to fund movie productions in the future. Once this crisis passes (and understand that may not be for 12-18 months given health officials expect multiple waves were we will be able to loosen restrictions for a little while and then have to reinstitute them) and they actually start making movies again the studios are going to have tough choices about what to make as their revenue stream is going to be so impacted this year. My gut is studio executives are likely over the next couple of years to only greenlight films they believe are going to be significant profit makers for them as they will need to refill their coffers to them start a more robust filming schedule a few years from now.

Based on what they are going with for Sunday drops i think every one of the films estimate is going to be too high. i expect the true sunday drops will be higher (maybe alot higher in some cases) that what the studios are guessing. Most are estimating drops in the 30's.

And I wouldn't give it much higher than a 1% chance of keeping its date. Definitely not more than a 5% chance imo. That's only about 2 1/2 months out and they will have to make a decision at some point before then whether to start spending the P&A.

Very few people are going to be going to theaters for the next 3-4 months. Numbers are going to get worse every day and they are not going to recover for months. I'll be surprised if next weekend's total number can hold to 50% of this weekend's number.