RamblinRed

I expect numbers to continue to trend down. People simply aren't going to go into movie theaters in any large numbers for the foreseeable future. Even when the pandemic finally passes i don't expect a huge ramp up of audience. It will take time for people to feel comfortable being in close contact with others. It's like an athlete who has a serious injury. They can be completely recovered from the injury, but even after that it takes time for them to feel comfortable and trust their body again. Even if this is largely contained by June. I don't think it will be until the fall the large masses of people are going to feel comfortable with being together again. i imagine every movie studio is going to take a beating this year. If i was a studio head I would be thinking of moving my spting/summer 2020 movies to spring/summer 2021 because so many productions are going to get closed I bet alot of the movies currently scheduled for release next year won't make their dates. TV is going to be interesting as there is likely going to be a time period with very little new content.

Given how the last 24 hours have gone, the Thursday numbers are really going to be something to see.

I think Box Office is going to start dropping by this weekend. Things are happening very quickly in the sports world right now and I suspect it will start spilling over to Entertainment, NCAA announced this afternoon that there will be no fans at NCAA Tourney Games. Both the Big 10 and Big 12 have announced that starting tomorrow no fans will be allowed in to their Tournament games this week. Some NBA teams are starting to play games with no fans in attendance. Ivy league has cancelled all spring sports. You can feel the anxiety ramping up.

Will be interesting to watch how much of its lead Sonic gives up to DP over the next week to 10 days. DP's third weekend was Memorial Day Weekend. Sonic gave back 1.2M of its lead today. Next Monday it could easily end up giving back $3M.

if BOP only gets's to $7.6 that will be almost $2M behind JW2 third weekend and all but guarantee a sub 90 final DOM number.

I want to see how close it gets to DP 2nd weekend. It has been about 15% behind DP the last couple of days. If it did that this weekend then you would be looking at 21-22. If it does closer to what 1998 posted with a smaller Fri bump, say like +135 - $5.4 +95 - $10.5 -30 - $7.4 $23.3 raise the Sat increase to 100% and you are looking at a $23.8 weekend.

We should find out this upcoming weekend how much the holiday weekend played into Sonic's opening. it was basically even with DP on Fri/Sat but outgrossed it by a combined $11M on Sunday/Monday last weekend. Sonic has run behind DP the last 2 days, DP made $25M in weekend 2 so that should be a good target to see how Sonic is holding. An 8M weekend for BOP would be a good weekend given what it did over a Holiday weekend that inflated its 2nd weekend total. But once again, will it drop harder due to it not being a holiday weekend this weekend. It should be at about 65.5 going into the weekend. Feels like it is headed for 90-95M DOM total.

That puts its audience score below all the current Top 10 movies except Doolittle and Gretel & Hansel. Unfortunately that does not bode well for strong WOM or long legs. Hopefully it holds well next weekend.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Opening wknd <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/boxoffice?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#boxoffice</a> for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BirdsOfPrey?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BirdsOfPrey</a> came in slightly below studio estimates at $33M domestic, $46.5M intl &amp; $79.5M global. Top intl mkts were Mexico ($4.4M), Russia ($3.9M), UK ($3.7M) &amp; Brazil ($2.8M).</p>&mdash; Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) <a href="https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1226939014105661442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> numbers are coming in below estimates both DOM and INTL

Prior to this year the WW was Disney's 7.6B (2016) and DOM was Disney 3.05 (2018)

I agree, feels like he is leaving a day out. It's at almost 260 as of Christmas Day. If Jat's number for Thur is solid it will be just below 290 entering the weekend. if Thur is 30 then the weekend should be at worst 80 and could be closer to 90, so that gets you to 370-380.

That's a horrible start for TROS. Could easily end up sub-500M DOM. 90M day 1 and couldn't equal that in day & 3 combined with pure drops both days. That suggests bad WOM. Have to wonder if this is the final straw for Kennedy and her exec team. Ironically they look to be in good shape on the streaming front with The Mandalorian and with the Caspian & K2 series and the Obi-Wan series in development.

Took my son tonight and had a strange experience i've never had before. They didn't show any previews before the movie started. We got to our seats at 8:25 for an 8:30 movie. The pre-show stuff ended at 8:30, then we had about 8 min worth of commercials - coca cola bears, girl talking to reindeer, disney+ and a couple of others. After that I was expecting 10-15 min of previews but the LucasFilm card came up and the movie started. This will be an interesting movie to follow over the holidays. There are parts of the movie I loved, and parts I didn't care for as much. Something of a mixed bag, but the highs were really high. Will be interesting to see where WOM lands over the next week. i can see why the critics were somewhat harsh, want to see if the GA feels the same way. They might, but they might enjoy it alot more than the critics did. It feels like a SW movie and moves quickly. FWIW, we were at a 16 screen multi-plex that we haven't been to before because my son had a fundraiser before the movie - so we weren't at the theaters by our house. Of the 16 screens, they were showing SW on 11 of them. Had 1 each for Jumanji, Cats, Richard Jewell, Queen & slim and Knives Out.

How much will losing IMAX and Premium seats hurt Jumanji this weekend? I'm assuming TROS takes all of those starting Thursday. This summer it felt like movies took a pretty hard hit anytime they lost those. I can't imagine J3 missing 200 though with a 59 start.

Second straight week that PBO has downgraded Cats numbers. Gives LW a nice little boost though. Also, what is MTC1/MTC2?

This upcoming weekend will be interesting to see how screen loss affects F2. Three wide releases is going to hit it in terms of screen loss if not theater loss.

They made no changes this week to their TROS projections which currently are $200M OW and $680M total run. They did downgrade Cats total run slightly - down 8% to 69M for total run.

Pro.Boxoffice decreased its opening weekend forecast for Jumanji by 12% to $44M and reduced its total run projection by 21% to $210M

Will be interesting to see if Ad Astra And Rambo or It2 and Hustlers flip with actuals. It2's 3rd weekend is really close to It's 4th weekend. Which would give a final of around 215.

It2 is reported to have a 4.0 Thursday. If it has It's same multiplier for the weekend that would translate to a 33.4 weekend.

If It2 follows It we would be looking at a 33.4 weekend.

Those look like really good estimates. if it were to follow It exactly it would be Thur - 4.1 Fri 10.9 Sat 14.7 Sun 8.6 34.2 weekend (-62.5%)

TS4 stays above $1M, passes TS3 and almost catches Spidey (just 2K behind on Thur). FFH - 1,025,389 TS4 - 1,023,316

This could turn into an interesting weekend to follow simply because multiple movies could end up very close in gross. Given TLK and H&S reportedly did 4.2 and 4.0 on Thur and the preview numbers for Dora and SS, we could have 4 films in the low 20's for the weekend (probably won't happen but not out of the realm of possibility). The numbers for some of the holdovers this weekend could be pretty bad. The movies outside the top 5 are almost all taking 50%+ theater losses and FFH and TS4 are both taking over 20%.

Will be interesting to see if TS4 managed to stay above $1M on Thursday. Going to be very close. 15% drop would be 1.003