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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    #1 as expected. That production cost looks crazy, but I wonder it includes the cost of filming Avatar 3 in conjunction?
  2. KP1025
    Another reason Frozen 2 dropped a lot in Japan was because the songs weren't nearly as catchy, thus limiting the number of repeat viewings. And while the first Frozen had all the elements to break out, nobody expected anywhere near the ¥25.5 billion it grossed considering no WDAS animation had passed even ¥5 billion at that point. Plenty of shoujo "magical girl" movies like Sailor Moon don't gross even 1/10 of what Frozen grossed in Japan, so it was really the combination of everything you listed amplifying one another.
  3. KP1025
    What kind of numbers are you predicting for total gross?
  4. KP1025
  5. KP1025
    I agree Avatar 2 is probably the best example of how Japan can reject a film that has become a massive box office phenomenon worldwide. Even more so when its predecessor grossed over ¥‎15 billion. Other notable examples would be the big CBMs (Endgame, IW, NWH) and TLK 2019. Mario does have more going for it than these particular examples that could help make it break out big, but I prefer to be cautiously optimistic right now with a target above DM3 for highest Illumination film.
  6. KP1025
    Have presales started for Mario?
  7. KP1025
    The Super Mario Bros. Movie Universal $5,802,100 -81%
  8. KP1025
    So net profit was barely ahead of Minions 2 despite grossing over $500 million more worldwide. The participation costs here were much higher compared to other movies on Deadline's list.
  9. KP1025
    I am interested to see if Japan can dethrone Mexico as the #1 OS market. Unfortunately, the yen is so weak that Mario would require over ¥10 billion to match the likely finish in Mexico.
  10. KP1025
    With the updated second weekend figure of $92.45 million, the Jungle Book comp now gives Mario a total finish of $612 million.
  11. KP1025
    A kids-skewing film would normally drop over 80% Sun-Mon during this time of year (Sonic 2 dropped over 83% on its post-Easter Monday). But Mario is pulling from all 4 quadrants, so I'd think it can do quite a bit better.
  12. KP1025
    So despite the amazing OS weekend, it looks like DOM still managed to edge it out slightly depending on actuals. OS gross should overtake DOM when South Korea and Japan open.
  13. KP1025
    Yeah, this Sunday hold has convinced me now of $600+ million and domestic animated record. If it does take it, I'm struggling to see another animated film that could take it in the future.
  14. KP1025
    I believe that would be Jurassic World: Dominion with ¥6.32 billion, but I'm expecting Mario to beat that.
  15. KP1025
    As of today, Maoyan is predicting 145 million yuan ($21.1 million) full run.
  16. KP1025
    Also Jungle Book dropped 40.4% and Mario is currently estimated at a 41% drop. Can we wait until actuals before proclaiming with certainty that Mario actually beat that drop and went sub-40%?
  17. KP1025
    Jungle Book added an additional $172 million to its total after a second weekend of $61.5 million. The same multiplier gives Mario an extra $243 million assuming a second weekend of $87 million for a total of $591 million.
  18. KP1025
    Sky is the limit for sure.
  19. KP1025
    First One Piece, now Conan. Totally demolishing the records previously set by their franchise.
  20. KP1025
    I think TGM can rest easy. Even the original Avatar only grossed an extra $35 million DOM across its multiple re-releases. I don't see A2 making as much even if they do re-release it multiple times.
  21. KP1025
    For $700 million to happen, Mario needs to start pulling significantly ahead of Incredibles 2 on the weekends. They are neck and neck after Week 2 right now, but Incredibles 2 will have summer weekdays to narrow the gap. Building an almost $92 million lead on it to reach $700 million seems too much considering Incredibles 2 had pretty good legs too.
  22. KP1025
    True, Japan is a real wild card here. I was using Charlie's high end of $750 million OS (which accounted for $150 million Japan + South Korea) along with the expected $550-600 million DOM.
  23. KP1025
    Probably $1.3 billion or more.
  24. KP1025
    I feel like a Mario sequel would inevitably drop in gross like most sequels to massive highly-anticipated films. The novelty of seeing the world of Mario animated on the big screen has been played, and I don't see other hooks having the same draw across all audiences.
  25. KP1025
    I don't see how MI7 gets close OS unless it gets a huge boost post-TGM. Fallout grossed $571 million OS but with $181 million from China. I don't see a huge China performance this time around given climate there, so other markets will have to see big increases to pick up the slack. This is what Charlie said last week in the Mario OS thread. The high end of that range seems more likely to me, which means MI7 will need a very strong China gross to compete.
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