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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    The 3-day OW itself was also deflated from opening on a Wednesday. We can extrapolate that Mario would likely have opened over $180 million at least if it had opened on a Friday.
  2. KP1025
    Excellent 129% increase for Mario. >$80 million weekend is locked.
  3. KP1025
    I don't think opening against the Flash is necessarily a problem by itself. Pixar has shown it can go toe to toe against big films and still thrive. Inside Out, which Elemental shares some similarities with, opened in #2 but still debuted very strongly against Jurassic World's ~$107 million second weekend (which is probably on par or even higher than what the Flash would gross its opening weekend). But combined with everything this summer, I do agree Elemental could have an issue finding the right audience.
  4. KP1025
    Frozen 2 with $85,977,773
  5. KP1025
    It looks like Deadline updated the theatrical revenue to $35 million but not the rest of the total so far. Corrected total should be $120 million total revenue vs total expense of $317.4 million for a net loss of $197.4 million. Not accounting for inflation, Strange World is probably the biggest bomb of all-time.
  6. KP1025
    Why is Strange World's theatrical profit listed as $80 million even though it grossed only $73.5 million worldwide? For comparison, Lightyear had a theatrical profit of $112 million with a $226 million worldwide gross.
  7. KP1025
    Mario vs Conan should be interesting for that weekend at least.
  8. KP1025
    Especially a Shinkai film, which are renowned for their gorgeous animation and visuals.
  9. KP1025
    I hope so too. The Disney+ window was absolutely crippling their animated films in particular. As a subscriber, I wouldn't even be opposed to 6 months or more before a theatrical release is available for free on Disney+. Gives some time for the digital and physical copies to sell.
  10. KP1025
    Avatar 2 numbers finally updated on The Numbers https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-The-Way-of-Water-(2022)#tab=box-office
  11. KP1025
    This was from Deadline for FB3 opening last year. So there are still a significant amount of schools off on Easter Monday but not to the level of Good Friday.
  12. KP1025
    I don't think Shrek is strong enough outside North America to give the kind of numbers needed to break the worldwide animated opening record held by Mario. But Shrek 5 has a shot at beating the domestic animated opening record held by Incredibles 2 for sure if the quality is there.
  13. KP1025
    When is the OS gross going to be corrected on The Numbers? They seem to have rolled back to an earlier number and stopped updating, which has dropped the WW gross just below $2.3 billion. BOM still has the correct numbers fortunately.
  14. KP1025
    Wow, Universal really deserves this win.
  15. KP1025
    Disney should just continue what they're doing with Avatar 2. Keep certain films (anything with major blockbuster potential) from going to streaming on Disney+ for at least 4 months. If people want to watch these films for free, they can afford to wait a while. It's bad enough that Disney+ already crippled their Blu-ray/DVD sales.
  16. KP1025
    I don't see how it misses $1 billion WW. Unless its legs collapse, DOM will be higher than Minions 2 by probably at least $150-200 million. Final OS number should also be higher than Minions 2 or at least on par given the start.
  17. KP1025
    Regarding East Asia, I think Japan could surprise still. Maybe not the $100+ million some are hoping for, but a total over DM3 for biggest Illumination film seems very possible. In USD, that would be a target of $56 million.
  18. KP1025
    Very close. 3.99x 😅
  19. KP1025
    Not saying this is impossible as history is meant to be defied, but only two movies (TGM and Avatar 2) have ever gotten a multiplier higher than 4x after opening over $100 million 3-day. I wouldn't bet on it personally, but we'll know by the end of next weekend if those kind of legs are in play or if it will follow a more reasonable trajectory.
  20. KP1025
    I would say that would be quite difficult actually, though not impossible. Even Incredibles 2 only managed a 2.6x off its 5-day number ($233 million), and that was considered great legs for the size of its opening (3.3x its 3-day OW). The 2.5x number for CBMs is also referring to their 3-day mutiplier, not 5-day. A 2.5x multiplier for a 5-day number like Mario's would be considered good.
  21. KP1025
    5-day number could come close, but I don't see how Mario tops Incredibles 2's 3-day OW even on the high end.
  22. KP1025
    Minions 2 also hit digital after a month without much effect on its legs, so I think Mario will be just fine.
  23. KP1025
    Take On Me was the most misplaced needle drop in the movie for me. They absolutely should have used a DK soundtrack for that scene.
  24. KP1025
    Incredibles 2 also did 2.6x off its first 5 days even with A+ Cinemascore and summer weekdays. Given the similar scale of their openings, I agree Mario might be looking at a multiplier somewhere in that ballpark.
  25. KP1025
    Wednesday was a holiday.
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