KP1025

I wouldn't rule out 3+ multiplier though. It's got no major Hollywood competition during its run from what I can tell. FFH will be winding down, SLOP2 isn't making any kind of impact, and the next big blockbuster is H&S on August 23. TLK should also play as the only major family film during peak summer vacation.

Jungle Book seems like the best comparison (same director, similar theme with talking CGI animals, etc ), and that grossed $150 million. It's not difficult to imagine three years later and with even better visuals and WOM (Jungle Book currently has 8.8 on Maoyan) that Lion King could improve on that.

It can't be August 2 like U.S release date?

Is this a typo? The Numbers has the actual at $39.25M. 1 new Spider-Man: Far From Home Sony Pictures $39,255,628 4,634 $8,471 $39,255,628 1

Posted this in the domestic weekend thread, but many holdovers outside the Top 5 dropped from Monday instead of increasing on Discount Tuesday. Most likely because of losing screens to accommodate the opening of FFH.

Almost every holdover outside the Top 5 had a decent-sized drop from Monday. Presumably due to screen loss to accommodate FFH showings.

For one week, but tickets were free.

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (06/29-30)01 (01) ¥879,173,000 ($8.1 million), -12%, ¥7,217,200,400 ($66.6 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK402 (---) ¥698,561,400 ($6.5 million), 0, ¥1,009,949,700 ($9.3 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) NEW 03 (02) ¥227,039,300 ($2.1 million), -27%, ¥935,868,300 ($8.6 million), The Fable (Toho) WK204 (---) ¥125,512,100 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥137,067,500 ($1.3 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) NEW 05 (05) ¥x77,165,900 ($713,000), -36%, ¥2,622,411,100 ($24.3 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK5 06 (07) ¥x76,648,200 ($708,000), -01%, ¥556,382,500 ($5.2 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK4 07 (03) ¥x67,132,600 ($620,000), -50%, ¥855,990,600 ($8.0 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK308 (---) ¥x55,000,000 ($510,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($600,000), Bento Harassment (Showgate) NEW 09 (06) ¥x51,812,300 ($479,000), -37%, ¥2,799,590,700 ($25.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK710 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($460,000), 0, ¥x62,324,330 ($575,000), The Journalist (Star Sands/Aeon Entertainment) NEW 11 (08) ¥x47,872,800 ($442,000), -26%, ¥314,471,040 ($2.9 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK3 12 (04) ¥x47,370,800 ($437,000), -64%, ¥342,320,500 ($3.2 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) WK2 13 (11) ¥x41,981,700 ($387,000), -26%, ¥731,241,900 ($6.7 million), Promare (Toho) WK6 14 (10) x¥41,853,800 ($386,000), -49%, ¥173,345,000 ($1.6 million), Ride Your Wave (Toho) WK2>Aladdin holds onto the top spot despite a strong showing from Spider-Man, managing another incredible hold. When a 12% drop is your biggest decline to date, you're doing something very, very right. It sold a further 611,000 admissions over the weekend, bringing its four-week total above 5 million already to 5,048,500! And due to another incredible hold, Aladdin achieved the sixth-biggest fourth weekend on record, and while its cumulative total continues to trail Beauty and the Beast and Alice in Wonderland due to no holiday support, its fourth weekend is significantly higher than both films, by a whopping 53% and 68%, respectively. Since Beauty and Alice no longer had holiday support after their fourth weeks, I imagine Aladdin will catch them in total very, very soon. A total north of ¥10 billion ($90 million+) is guaranteed now, and I expect it'll finish around ¥12/13 billion ($110-120 million). >Spider-Man: Far From Home had to settle for second place, but don't let the silver medal fool you -- it had an excellent debut. The second Spider-Man film in the MCU sold 460,340 admissions over the weekend frame across 824 screens, and sold 669,304 since opening on Friday. Spider-Man's debut came in an incredible 56% above its predecessor, and even 4% above Avengers: Infinity War, to deliver the third biggest opening weekend in the MCU behind only Avengers: Endgame and Avengers: Age of Ultron. Spider-Man has always been the most popular superhero in Japan, and Far From Home's opening further proves this fact. Expect a total around ¥4 billion ($35 million+), which would make it the fifth-highest grossing superhero film of all-time, behind the original Spider-Man trilogy and Endgame. >The latest Anpanman release, the 31st entry in the long-running franchise, set a new franchise opening weekend record (and opening day franchise record according to the studio), selling 104,526 admissions over the weekend frame across 233 screens. Of course, this is a very notable accomplishment for such a long-running franchise, though the wider release due to theater growth expansion in recent years definitely helped it a good deal. It's expected to set a new franchise record in total as well, which currently stands at ¥650 million. >Godzilla: King of the Monsters finally managed a respectable hold after weeks heavy frontloading to remain in the Top 5. Reaching the ¥3 billion milestone remains very difficult, but if it can continue to post similar, preferably better, holds and Toho keeps it around come August, then it just might barely reach the mark. >Men in Black International wasn't so lucky and continues to drop ridiculously fast. It's barely going to finish above the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone, finishing an embarrassing 65-70% below its predecessor... >X-Men: Dark Phoenix... well, that's one of the biggest drops in rankings I've ever seen (EIGHT), as well as one of the biggest percentage declines... It was already going to become the lowest-grossing film in the overall X-Men franchise, but this is something else! A 64% drop in Japan is basically the equivalent of a 80%+ drop in the U.S.. The only films that see these types of declines are very, very niche otaku anime releases that generally have giveaways to opening week/weekend attendees.

It was an obvious mistake on BOM. They accidentally inputted Dark Phoenix numbers twice. Look how Dumbo had the exact same estimate as it.

Wow, I wonder if any market has ever had the all-time highest gross record broken not once but twice in one year? Even if TS4 doesn't make it, #1 and #2 both in one year is extremely impressive.

First day of every month is a discount day for all theaters. Admissions increased but revenue should be lower than last Monday.

If there is a Labor Day push, I think it would be hurt by the fact that the Blu-ray is out August 13. Was honestly hoping Disney would push back the home release date a bit.

This retrospective reaction to Titanic's run is pretty spot on.

It's a shame because Aladdin had very good reception in China. If it wasn't facing so much competition, it could have had a nice leggy run (which it needed because the OW was so low).

Corpse: Weekend Forecast (06/29-30)01 (01) ¥747,000,000 ($6.9 million), -25%, ¥7,000,000,000 ($64.6 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK402 (---) ¥650,000,000 ($6.0 million), 0, ¥950,000,000 ($8.8 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) NEW 03 (02) ¥213,000,000 ($2.9 million), -31%, ¥875,000,000 ($8.0 million), The Fable (Toho) WK204 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($930,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Anpanman! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW 05 (03) ¥x67,000,000 ($620,000), -50%, ¥845,000,000 ($7.9 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK3 06 (05) ¥x64,000,000 ($595,000), -47%, ¥2,605,000,000 ($24.2 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK5 07 (07) ¥x62,000,000 ($575,000), -20%, ¥535,000,000 ($5.0 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK3 08 (04) ¥x59,000,000 ($550,000), -55%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) WK209 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($465,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($560,000), Bento Harassment (Showgate) NEW 10 (10) ¥x48,000,000 ($445,000), -40%, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Ride Your Wave (Toho) WK2Spider-Man: Far From Home debuts over the last weekend of June, and while I think it'll fall a bit shy of dethroning Aladdin, it's looking to be an actual contender for the #1 spot based on its Friday performance and Saturday pre-sales. In fact, its pre-sales are the second highest among all Marvel/DC films that I've tracked, trailing only Avengers: Endgame (by about 33%) and ahead of Avengers: Infinity War (by about 8%). So, Far From Home seems guaranteed to open above ¥500 million, and even ¥600 million+ appears quite doable so long as it doesn't see a big Sunday decline. If it opens above ¥580.9 million, it'll out-open The Amazing Spider-Man to become the biggest opener in the overall Spider-Man series since Spider-Man 3 (and its predecessors). A 25-45% increase over Spider-Man: Homecoming is expected right now -- very, very impressive if all goes well.

Wow, so is it locked to beat TS3 in USD now?

I blame BOM. This page does make it look like Avatar actually grossed $2.81 billion. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=avatar.htm

Endgame reached a score of 9.3 on Maoyan during the first few days, so this is a very good score for FFH. In comparison, Aquaman and Venom were 9.6 and 9.4 on Maoyan during their openings.

For Dory, my guess is that the Sunday was depressed (it dropped higher than normal for Father's Day Sunday) and Monday was just course correcting.

Much stronger Tuesday bump than either I2 or Dory got on their first Tuesday.

Has to be an error. No way OS drops $65 million for no reason.

Don't forget Weathering with You, which I guess can be considered the spiritual sequel to Your Name.

Exact same legs off the second weekend as the first film (4.24x) would give SLOP2 just over $150 million. However, I doubt it will be as leggy as its predecessor given all the competition this summer. A finish in the $140 million range seems more realistic.

This really makes Finding Dory's 24% drop on Father's Day Sunday quite puzzling in retrospect.

Beauty and the Beast is a more realistic and appropriate comp for Aladdin in Japan. Frozen is way too big an outlier because of its mega-phenomenon status there.