KP1025

Just amazing. Is there a particular reason the Toy Story franchise is so huge in Mexico and other parts of Latin America?

Latin America performance so far is insane. I knew Pixar was big in the region, but TS4 is absolutely destroying the animation records like Endgame destroyed other CBMs. It's too bad about the ER compared to TS3, but perhaps OS won't drop too much from TS3.

I highly doubt Shrek 5 will come close to those numbers. Shrek 2 will always be the peak of the franchise due to it capturing the zeitgeist at just the right moment. While there will be some nostalgia factor, I see Shrek 5 in a similar situation to Toy Story 4. Another sequel that nobody really asked for, only this time the franchise has been diluted by several poor sequels and TV specials/spin-offs. It's not going to explode like Incredibles 2, which was the first sequel to a highly beloved film and one that everyone had been clamoring for.

This has to be one of the biggest downwards adjustments between release tracking/forecasts and weekend actuals. Considering trades yesterday were saying stuff like:

Even with competition from TS4, that's a really bad increase for SLOP2.

Just like Frozen and Bohemian Rhapsody. Musically-based films can really explode in these markets.

For comparison, BatB's 3rd weekend was ¥893,126,000 (-20%) followed by a 4th weekend of ¥575,283,300 (-35%). BatB will be about ¥1.35 billion ahead after this weekend because of the Golden Week boost, but Aladdin should start to make up the difference on the weekends going forward.

Corpse: Weekend Forecast (06/22-23)01 (01) ¥932,000,000 ($8.7 million), -15%, ¥5,350,000,000 ($49.5 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK302 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Fable (Toho) NEW03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) NEW 04 (02) ¥162,000,000 ($1.5 million), -41%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.6 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK2 05 (03) ¥137,000,000 ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥2,475,000,000 ($23.0 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4 06 (04) ¥108,000,000 ($1.0 millon), -40%, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK2 07 (06) ¥x88,000,000 ($820,000), -39%, ¥2,680,000,000 ($24.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK6 08 (08) ¥x68,000,000 ($635,000), +20%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.8 million), Promare (Toho) WK5 09 (07) ¥x61,000,000 ($570,000), -40%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK2 10 (05) ¥x58,000,000 ($540,000), -60%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Girls und Panzer: Finale - Chapter 2 (Showgate) WK2Notable Films Below Top 10:¥x35,000,000 ($325,000), -34%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.0 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK10¥x30,000,000 ($280,000), -23%, ¥6,045,000,000 ($54.7 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK9¥x28,000,000 ($260,000), -28%, ¥9,030,000,000 ($82.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK11¥x27,000,000 ($250,000), -42%, ¥2,925,000,000 ($26.8 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK8>Aladdin will, once again, effortlessly stay atop the box-office. Expect this kind of dominance until mid-July. Its pre-sales for the weekend suggests it could see another sub-10% weekend hold, but third weekend holds are generally worse than second weekends for soon-to-be-uber-blockbusters like this, so I'm going a little higher. We'll see though, it could pull off another single-digit hold. ¥10 billion ($90 million+) is probably locked up now, I believe. >The Fable will have the standard so-so debut for this time of year. Nothing exciting, just a decent enough opening and likely finish. >X-Men: Dark Phoenix will bomb/disappoint like the other three films with the younger cast. X-Men: Days of Future Past was the only one among them to gross over ¥1 billion ($10 million) and come somewhat close to reaching the "success" of the original three films. That said, I actually have Dark Phoenix opening on par, maybe even slightly higher than X-Men: Apocalypse, so I guess there's that accomplishment if it does happen considering its performance elsewhere. >And lastly, be weary of the forecast for the many limited/near-limited released anime films occupying the Top 10 right now. As I've said, they're very hard to predict (I need to edit Uta no Prince-sama's opening from last week still) for many, many reasons and can sometimes plummet or increase over any given weekend. It looks like all of them will see sharp declines this weekend, aside from Promare (which looks to increase), but you never know. My predictions are simply based on weekday performance and weekend pre-sales. Aladdin is likely to cross $100 million at this rate.

Should be closer to 3.8M, right?

Friday was down almost 82% from its OD.

True, that is a good question. I think Spirited Away is one of those masterpieces that never gets old. I have watched it many times now, and I would gladly pay to see it in theaters if it ever re-releases. In any case, at least it will earn enough from China to take the title of highest grossing anime film back from Your Name.

Even on Douban, Spirited Away has a 9.3 score after receiving over 1 million user ratings.

If TS4 wasn't competing with Spirited Away this weekend (which has even higher ratings) and FFH next weekend, I think it could have had a big breakout. Of course, anything over $50 million would still be good by Pixar standards.

Phenomenal drop for Aladdin. Basically flat from its already huge OW. Although it won't have the Golden Week boost that BatB had in its second week, I think Aladdin can hold better on the following weekends as it won't have burned through as much demand.

Corpse: Excellent for Aladdin, and an incredible debut for the month of June (it'll be the third biggest ever, and the biggest in 15 years). I'm estimating a debut of ¥1,140,000,000 ($10.5 million) on 780,000 admissions, and a 3-day total of ¥1,400,000,000 ($12.9 million) on 965,000 admissions. It'll become the 43rd film to open above the ¥1 billion milestone. This opening should allow it to reach a minimum of ¥7.5 billion ($70 million), and that's only if it receives bad WOM (which looks unlikely, audience scores are good) and the July competition hits it really hard. A more realistic finish will be around ¥9 billion ($80 million+). ¥10 billion ($90 million+) is also possible, but it'll require great WOM and some of the July films to disappoint (resulting in it not losing as many screens/showtimes). Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [REVENUE]Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)01 (09) ¥1,628,893,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014) 02 (16) ¥1,463,827,700 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019) 03 (18) ¥1,372,054,050 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012) 04 (20) ¥1,316,539,200 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010) 05 (21) ¥1,301,851,375 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011) 06 (22) ¥1,295,834,500 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018) 07 (23) ¥1,286,928,000 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017) 08 (25) ¥1,245,023,900 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015) 09 (26) ¥1,225,913,932 - Rookies (May, 2009) 10 (27) ¥1,216,654,000 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018) 11 (28) ¥1,209,158,900 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016) 12 (29) ¥1,205,116,126 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011) 13 (31) ¥1,155,771,000 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016) 14 (32) ¥1,140,000,000 - Aladdin (June, 2019) *Estimate* 14 (33) ¥1,133,513,323 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012) 15 (34) ¥1,125,800,000 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017) 16 (35) ¥1,096,150,000 - Code Blue (July, 2018) 17 (36) ¥1,065,362,800 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017) 18 (37) ¥1,057,808,800 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015) 20 (38) ¥1,048,271,900 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017) 21 (40) ¥1,038,295,232 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009) 22 (41) ¥1,034,459,534 - Ponyo (July, 2008) 23 (43) ¥1,005,428,333 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008)Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [ADMISSIONS]Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)01 (02) 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014) 02 (13) 1,144,539 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019) 03 (14) 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012) 04 (19) 1,012,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018) 05 (20) 987,568 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017) 06 (22) 987,387 - Rookies (May, 2009) 07 (23) 974,577 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015) 08 (24) 933,781 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016) 09 (28) 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011) 10 (29) 833,190 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018) 11 (30) 828,149 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010) 12 (31) 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016) 13 (32) 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009) 14 (33) 812,557 - Ponyo (July, 2008) 15 (34) 810,918 - Code Blue (July, 2018) 16 (35) 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008) 17 (36) 805,297 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (July, 2009) 18 (37) 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)19 (38) 780,000 - Aladdin (June, 2019) *Estimate* 19 (39) 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011) 20 (40) 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012) 21 (41) 771,516 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017) 22 (42) 766,633 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (Nov., 2010) 23 (44) 747,451 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 24 (46) 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017) 25 (47) 729,114 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017) 26 (49) 717,958 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Sept., 2014) 27 (50) 716,629 - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018) 28 (52) 715,727 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015) 29 (53) 707,339 - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (July, 2010)*Modern = Post-Previews/Early Showings Era.

The good thing about a backloaded market like Japan is that if a film happens to hit the right note for audiences, WOM will ensure good legs- holidays or not. The all-time highest multiplier in Japan currently belongs to Bohemian Rhapsody, and that was an early November release.

I can understand his reasoning for being conservative on The Lion King due to Jungle Book performing poorly in Japan. And it's true the original animated film didn't do that well when it released in Japan (neither did almost all Hollywood animation until the 2000s). That said, the film has left behind a legacy that cannot be compared to any other animated film. The musical has a permanent installment in Japan and is the longest performing show in Japanese history. Across Japan, I estimate it has probably earned over $1 billion since its debut in 1998.

At 4PM local time, Aladdin's Sunday is at 209,637. Compared to: Beauty and the Beast: 165,877 The Last Jedi: 187,607 The Force Awakens: 206,251 Fallen Kingdom: 211,513 Using the chart below, an opening above Beauty and the Beast seems locked. OW will probably be between ¥1.1-1.2 billion if this pace continues. Huge numbers and a wonderful surprise considering Corpse only recently lowered his predictions for Aladdin to ¥3-5 billion for the total run. Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [REVENUE]Modern Rank (All-Time Rank) 08 (25) ¥1,245,023,900 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015) 10 (27) ¥1,216,654,000 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)15 (33) ¥1,125,800,000 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)17 (35) ¥1,065,362,800 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)

It should be about $5 million.

According to Corpse, KOTM's Saturday was 205,137. Biggest Openers Since 2015:Saturday Results (~70% of Market):Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)157,910/547,894 (28.8% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)

At 7PM, Aladdin is at 207,078 admissions at the usual locations. Compared to 7PM results for major Hollywood openers. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 209,595 Beauty and the Beast: 196,572 Avengers: Endgame: 178,584 The way things are going, I think Aladdin is heading for a 2-Day OW above ¥1 billion.

And with Toy Story 4 looking like a juggernaut in 2 weeks, I doubt SLOP2 legs will be near as good as the first film. Domestic total could drop $200 million or more from SLOP's $368 million.

The RT critic average for the Toy Story franchise is insanely high. Toy Story- 100% Toy Story 2- 100% Toy Story 3- 98% It will be interesting to see where Toy Story 4 lands.

Looking at general reception in East Asia, I imagine legs will be fantastic for Aladdin in Japan. $80 million seems likely with that kind of opening.

Cars 3 might work as a comparison since it was a mid-June release. It was also a low-hyped sequel which ended up opening in the same range ($53.7 million OW). This would give SLOP2 $48.6 million OW.