KP1025

SLOP2 will end up the second widest release of all-time (widest animated release). 1 Avengers: Endgame BV 4,662 $357,115,007 43.6% $76,601 $818,704,783 4/26/19 2 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. 4,561 n/a n/a n/a n/a 6/07/19 3 Despicable Me 3 Uni. 4,529 $72,434,025 27.4% $15,993 $264,624,300 6/30/17 4 Aladdin (2019) BV 4,476 $91,500,929 45.0% $20,443 $203,136,661 5/24/19 5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. 4,475 $148,024,610 35.4% $33,078 $417,719,760 6/22/18

I'm really curious why. China loved Apocalypse despite that film losing a lot of the audience from Days of Future Past. Without having seen the film, I can only guess that some diehard X-Men fans are getting turned off by the character decisions. Because otherwise, the formula doesn't seem that different from Apocalypse.

There's really no precedent in Japan. The only direct sequel to a ¥20+ billion film in Japan is Chamber of Secrets, and that only dropped 14% in admissions from the first film. Frozen doesn't seem like a fan-driven franchise like Harry Potter, so it will be interesting to see how much of the original audience the sequel can retain.

Considering Apocalypse (which wasn't even well-received outside China) has an 8.9 on Maoyan, I really wonder what they messed up in Dark Phoenix for it to be so divisive.

Guessing $500 million OS for now. Will adjust once I see trailer.

I guess my personal expectations were lower. It seemed most were expecting a decent-sized drop from Apocalypse, with only China being its saving grace. Before the gloomy presales in China, it seemed even $500 million WW was the high-end. But assuming that range, is Dark Phoenix really going under $250 million WW?

Unlike Solo, Dark Phoenix was never expected to do big numbers though.

Quite a few sequels have had really ugly drops from their predecessors this year. Lego Movie 2, Happy Death Day 2, A Dog's Journey, and Godzilla 2 all dropped around 50% or more on OW. It looks like SLOP2 could continue that trend.

While I don't think this will happen to the Despicable Me franchise just yet, the Ice Age films showed that even formerly huge OS franchises can completely collapse once fatigue sets in. Ice Age 3: $690 million OS Ice Age 4: $716 million OS Ice Age 5: $345 million OS

I'm expecting quite a bit higher for Frozen II. I think November OW record is in play given the strong trailer views and reception. Outside of Frozen II, November is very weak this year. By the time of its release, I think audiences will be itching for a major event film. There will also be a long gap since the last major animated film (DreamWorks' Abominable in September), further increasing pent-up demand.

Corpse: (C)2019 Legendary and Warner Bros. Pictures. All Rights ReservedWeekend Actuals (06/01-02)01 (---) ¥677,000,000 ($6.3 million), 0, ¥918,860,100 ($8.5 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) NEW 02 (01) ¥291,221,400 ($2.7 million), -17%, ¥1,796,582,800 ($16.4 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK3 03 (02) ¥148,651,000 ($1.4 million), -40%, ¥729,475,100 ($6.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) WK204 (---) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥189,000,000 ($1.7 million), Parallel Love Story (Shochiku) NEW 05 (03) ¥136,961,700 ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥2,636,583,700 ($24.1 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK5 06 (05) ¥127,618,700 ($1.2 million), -17%, ¥5,160,666,400 ($46.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK7 07 (04) ¥x99,091,200 ($915,000), -39%, ¥431,838,500 ($4.0 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) WK2 08 (07) ¥x93,914,600 ($868,000), -29%, ¥8,785,031,300 ($80.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK8 09 (06) ¥x86,287,700 ($797,000), -42%, ¥5,779,458,600 ($52.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK6 10 (08) ¥x58,816,800 ($543,000), -27%, ¥231,342,300 ($2.2 million), Promare (Toho) WK2 11 (09) ¥x36,082,900 ($333,000), -13%, ¥1,978,810,800 ($17.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK7 12 (10) ¥x27,848,100 ($257,000), -30%, ¥266,442,000 ($2.4 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK3>Godzilla: King of the Monsters roared some life back into the box-office, selling a very impressive 479,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 431 screens. It sold 641,773 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is a significant 33% higher than its predecessor, and it's even 8% higher than 2016's Shin Godzilla. I've read a lot of good things about how the film is much more of a "Godzilla" film than Hollywood's previous attempts, from Ifukube's original themes being used in the film to the kaiju designs being truer to their original characters. And Japanese audience scores seem to reflect this news as well, since it's averaging scores of 4/5 (80%) across most domestic movie sites. I still think they'll be some degree of frontloading, but the good reception could very well offset some of the initial demand. I expect it'll finish a bit above the ¥4 billion ($35-40 million) milestone, but let's see if it can go a bit higher. >The Confidence Man JP holds strong once again, delivering a third weekend that would have been a satisfactory opening weekend. It's going to exceed ¥2.5 billion ($25 million), and if it can hold onto enough screens/showtimes in the coming weeks, which I believe it will given the holds and audience reception, it could even make a run at the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone. >Parallel Love Story debuts in third place, selling 112,000 admissions over the weekend on 316 screens. It sold 148,000 admissions since opening on Friday. Nothing to really say about this debut other than it being decent, and decent is fine for a film like this this time of year. >Pokemon: Detective Pikachu continues to perform well, and is still on track to reach the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone -- the standard milestone that the animated franchise has mostly settled around in recent years. And again, this may seem a bit disappointing in Japan, but it's a good result. >Kingdom refuses to slow down even after weeks from the Golden Week holiday frame. It will surpass Death Note: The Last Name in just a couple of days, and then it'll outgross Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno before the start of next weekend to become the highest-grossing live-action film based on a Weekly Shonen Jump manga series. It should finish around the ¥5.5 billion ($50 million) mark. >Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire keeps adding to its likely Yearly Top 3/5 total in its eighth-weekend of release with another good hold. It will exceed the ¥9 billion ($82 million) milestone, but reaching last year's films' record-setting ¥9.18 billion total doesn't look guaranteed yet. Interestingly, it exceeded 6.88 million admissions (6,881,950) this weekend to become the most-attended film in the franchise, beating last year's films' 6.88 million admissions. So its audience does continue to grow year-over-year. >Avengers: Endgame suffered from a pretty rough week, and its chances of reaching the ¥6 billion ($54/55 million) milestone isn't so certain anymore as a result. Now, it's broken and surpassed basically every record for a superhero film outside of the original Spider-Man trilogy, so reaching ¥6 billion isn't really necessary, but it would look nice.

I think Frozen broke out in East Asia for mostly the same reason elsewhere. The dual female protagonists and songs resonated strongly with audiences. South Korea and Japan in particular are big markets for musical films. Big Hero 6 was because it had elements of both a Marvel CBM and an animated film (generally Japan shuns the former while South Korea and China embrace them). It also helped that Big Hero 6 had an Asian protagonist and a general anime feel to it. Zootopia's performance is a bit harder to dissect. There have been plenty of talking animal movies in the past, but I don't think any ever really anthropomorphized them to this extent. The way it tackled serious themes like prejudice was also quite novel for an animated film. East Asia is fairly patriarchal, and supposedly a lot of audience members emphasized with the character struggles displayed in the film.

I wonder if SLOP2 taking 4,400+ theaters the same weekend is having an effect. Not to mention Aladdin and KOTM are still in over 4,000 theaters next weekend.

I'm genuinely blown away by the early presales data for Toy Story 4. The trailer views and general reception online didn't seem to point to a huge breakout. It will be interesting to see how it maintains the pace with Incredibles 2 as we get closer to the opening date. Also, SLOP2's legs will probably be hit even harder than I thought.

Yes, 9.0 is a good score. In comparison, Godzilla (2014) and Kong: Skull Island both have 8.3 on Maoyan.

I agree that Japan is as big a market for musicals as South Korea, if not more. By the way, Frozen is actually #2 in Japan when sorting by admissions.

Godzilla 2 starts with 9.0 on Maoyan.

I assume this is a typo? Mary Poppins Returns grossed $172 million domestically.

Maoyan score is more important than the Douban score for GA reception. Aquaman only has 7.6 on Douban but 9.4 on Maoyan. As a film focused on spectacle and action rather than plot and character development, I didn't expect a high Douban score in the first place.

I'm guessing because it's the most appealing film for families right now, and kids are not as fussed about a movie's score.

Aladdin also up to 9.1 on Maoyan. Seems excellent for live-action musical (Beauty and the Beast only has 8.2 currently).

Do you think the post credit scene with the severed Ghidorah head is going anywhere in the next film, or is it more like a fun throwaway? In one of the past films, Ghidorah was able to regenerate his entire body completely from just a single severed appendage.

Probably in for a big drop. Screen share down from 32.6% last Friday to 11.7% today.

Depending on the rate of domestic ticket price inflation, the first film would adjust to $910-930 million by 2021. That's probably the benchmark Avatar 2 should be aiming for if it has the same phenomenal WOM as the first film. I'm hoping it beats TFA and cracks the $1 billion milestone. Having #1 DOM, OS, and WW crowns again would be very fitting.

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (05/18-19)01 (---) ¥386,000,000 ($3.5 million), 0, ¥480,504,400 ($4.4 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) NEW 02 (02) ¥275,989,800 ($2.5 million), -12%, ¥1,965,934,600 ($17.9 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK3 03 (01) ¥211,643,500 ($1.9 million), -33%, ¥5,240,996,600 ($47.5 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK4 04 (03) ¥209,781,900 ($1.9 million), -17%, ¥4,515,354,000 ($40.5 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK5 05 (04) ¥188,453,400 ($1.7 million), -24%, ¥8,318,979,000 ($75.9 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK606 (---) ¥x95,000,000 ($860,000), 0, ¥120,748,300 ($1.1 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) NEW07 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($725,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) NEW *ESTIMATE* 08 (05) ¥x71,381,100 ($648,000), -22%, ¥1,853,965,500 ($16.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK5 09 (06) ¥x23,049,700 ($209,000), -42%, ¥290,138,900 ($2.7 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK310 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), Replicas (Showgate) NEW 11 (11) ¥x18,845,980 ($171,000), -05%, ¥257,894,480 ($2.3 million), What is Love? (Elephant House) WK5 12 (09) ¥x18,338,600 ($166,000), -30%, ¥x76,797,600 ($697,000), Kabaneri of the Iron Fortress: The Battle of Unato (Warner Bros.) WK2>The Confidence Man JP takes the #1 spot, not only debuting higher than its pre-sales ahead of the weekend indicated, but also higher than weekend estimates by a solid margin. The first film based on the Fuji TV Comedy sold an impressive 284,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 324 screens, and reached 357,228 admissions sold since Friday. This is a very good debut, and with an early strong reception, legs will probably be kind. I would expect a finish around ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million). Certainly not shabby for this time of year. >Pokemon: Detective Pikachu holds strong in second place, delivering the best hold in the Top 10 on an additional 180,000 admissions over the weekend. WOM appears to be quite good for the film, and I believe a number of weary moviegoers who may have been interested in seeing it, but not in theaters, are likely coming out now. This will probably be a short-lived benefit, maybe til the end of the month, but we may need to keep watch on this one -- it could end up being extra-leggy. For now, expect a total between ¥3.0-3.5 billion (~$30 million). >Avengers: Endgame ended up coming in third place in a very close race. As mentioned just two weeks into its run, it's the highest-grossing non-Spider-Man film in the market, and then right before going into its fourth-weekend, it exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone -- this makes it only the fourth superhero film to ever reach the mark. Expect a finish of about ¥6 billion ($53/54 million). >Kingdom settles for fourth place in its fifth-weekend of release, and it delivered yet another impressive hold this weekend. It's now guaranteed to exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone, and then if it can gross more than ¥5.22 billion, it'll outgross Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno to become the highest-grossing domestic live-action adaptation of a Weekly Shonen manga series. This film was a major win on several fronts. >Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire holds steady to round out the Top 5 in its sixth-weekend of release. It continues to track ahead of last year's franchise record-setting film, Zero the Enforcer, and should finish right around the ¥9 billion ($82/83 million) mark. Toho will probably need to give it some special screenings or a late expansion of some sort (like they did with last year's film), in order to surpass the franchise record of ¥9.18 billion, and they actually announced just that with "cheering" screenings at select locations beginning on May 30th. >According to Our Butler, Iwane: Sword of Serenity, and Replicas remain estimates based on their weekend admissions rankings.