KP1025

Rooting for the latter. Spirited Away only needs slightly more than $27.5 million from China to beat Your Name as the highest grossing anime film in the world.

That's a pretty impressive number for Endgame considering MCU was never huge like Star Wars in Europe. I read the record for highest Europe gross is Avatar with $1.05 billion.

Tuesday jumps across the board will probably be depressed a little because of Victoria Day in Canada.

That was the one aspect I actually really liked about BatB. I thought they did a great job bringing that enchanted castle into live action. The ballroom in particular was spectacular.

Corpse: Weekend Estimates (05/18-19)01 (---) ¥330,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥405,000,000 ($3.7 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) NEW 02 (02) ¥271,000,000 ($2.5 million), -13%, ¥1,965,000,000 ($17.9 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK3 03 (03) ¥202,000,000 ($1.8 million), -20%, ¥4,485,000,000 ($40.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK5 04 (01) ¥196,000,000 ($1.8 million), -38%, ¥5,205,000,000 ($47.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK4 05 (04) ¥182,000,000 ($1.7 million), -27%, ¥8,300,000,000 ($75.8 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK606 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($775,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) NEW07 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($725,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) NEW 08 (05) ¥x66,000,000 ($600,000), -27%, ¥1,840,000,000 ($16.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK5 09 (06) ¥x22,000,000 ($200,000), -43%, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK310 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), Replicas (Showgate) NEW>The Confidence Man JP takes the #1 spot, debuting noticeably higher than early numbers were suggesting. The first movie in the TV comedy is enjoying strong reviews from both critics and audiences, so I would expect a good run to go along with its good opening. It'll probably exceed ¥2 billion ($20 million). >Pokemon: Detective Pikachu holds strong in second place, delivering the best hold in the Top 10. WOM appears to be quite good for the film, and I believe a number of weary moviegoers who may have been interested in seeing it, but not in theaters, are likely coming out now. This will probably be a short-lived benefit, maybe til the end of the month, but we may need to keep watch on this one -- it could end up being extra-leggy. For now, expect a total between ¥3.0-3.5 billion (~$30 million). >There is a very close race for the #3 spot (less than 1,000 admissions from ~70% of the market separate them), but I think it'll go to Kingdom since it plays better in rural areas (just don't be surprised if Endgame is #3). All of the pre-Golden Week openers in April have performed very well, and Kingdom is no exception. It's going to clear the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone, a figure that has become difficult for domestic live-action films to reach. Also, there's even a possibility that it'll become the highest-grossing live-action film adapted from a Weekly Shonen manga series. It needs to outgross Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno's ¥5.22 billion total for that title, and that looks at least 50% doable. >Avengers: Endgame is dropping a bit hard, unsurprising given most superhero films do, but it's now exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone, becoming the only non-Spider-Man superhero film to ever reach this status. I don't expect it to develop any late-legs, so expect a finish around ¥6 billion ($53/54 million). Very, very impressive. >Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire is holding steady, which was a bit of a concern coming out of a very, very big (Super) Golden Week holiday frame. It's difficult to tell whether or not it'll outgross last year's film to become the highest-grossing film in the long-running franchise, but it'll be very close either way. Last year's film got an expansion very late in its run (6 months later), which allowed it to exceed ¥9 billion. This year's film is on track to reach just about ¥9 billion ($82/83 million) without any expansion, so I guess it'll be Toho's decision if they want it to claim the record or not.

For DOM over-predictions, it seems a close race between Solo, Poppins, and Pikachu. WW, most over-predicted is definitely Pikachu.

Possibly poor marketing is to blame. It is indeed disappointing that it's not even beating the first film's OW given its reception.

Sometimes, it takes a while for WOM to spread. How it holds next week will be key. Movies that become big WOM breakouts can even increase significantly on the second weekend. E.g. Zootopia, Dangal, Coco Not saying that I think that will happen for this film, but it's too early to write it off based on its projected OW.

And if I remember correctly, the initial 90M/250M prediction was considered conservative.

Grossed over $88 million off a $17 million OW.

I wouldn't be surprised by that. The action and spectacle in Godzilla 2 seem to be on another scale. Probably even more so than Aquaman.

2 (2) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $3,070,078 -42% 4,202 $731 $66,466,152

That's true, but they do seem to be less popular now compared to a few years back. For all but the youngest of kids, their schtick gets old very fast.

I was always expecting DM3 numbers at best for SLOP2. The first film was a breakout hit, but the novelty has worn off. And unlike something like Toy Story, the first film did not have the stellar critical and audience reception to begin with.

Agreed. I have to wonder why they didn't just stick with Bill Condon after the huge success of Beauty and the Beast.

Especially if you look at Cinderella, which only cost $95 million in 2015. The production design for that still ranks as one of the best among the live-action remakes.

In admissions, yes. In revenue, Endgame was still #1 last weekend.

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (05/11-12)01 (02) ¥315,972,200 ($2.9 million), -41%, ¥4,758,608,600 ($43.1 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3 02 (03) ¥312,119,700 ($2.8 million), -32%, ¥1,465,395,700 ($13.4 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK2 03 (04) ¥253,811,400 ($2.3 million), -42%, ¥4,031,500,900 ($36.1 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK4 04 (01) ¥249,522,700 ($2.3 million), -57%, ¥7,951,036,700 ($72.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK5 05 (05) ¥x90,632,800 ($826,000), -53%, ¥1,757,580,700 ($15.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK4 06 (06) ¥x37,908,900 ($345,000), -43%, ¥234,997,500 ($2.1 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK207 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), Leaving the Scene (Toei) NEW08 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x45,000,000 ($410,000), Cheer Boys!! (Bandai Visual/Pony Canyon) NEW09 (---) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥x33,467,500 ($305,000), The Curse of La Llorona (Warner Bros.) NEW10 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), 0, ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), Kabaneri of the Iron Fortress: The Battle of Unato (Warner Bros.) NEW 11 (12) ¥x19,822,900 ($181,000), +06%, ¥207,069,700 ($1.8 million), What is Love? (Elephant House) WK4 12 (07) ¥x17,919,700 ($163,000), -60%, ¥677,967,300 ($6.2 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) WK4 13 (11) ¥x16,794,400 ($153,000), -38%, ¥297,666,200 ($2.7 million), Sound! Euphonium The Movie: Oath's Finale (Shochiku) WK4 14 (09) ¥x14,829,000 ($135,000), -57%, ¥3,689,237,300 ($33.4 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK12Close battle for #1 between Avengers: Endgame and Pokemon: Detective Pikachu, both rising due to the expected large decline for Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (due to it playing so strong over the holidays). Endgame edged out the victory in revenue, but Detective Pikachu managed to win the weekend in admissions by just 2,000 (209,000 versus 207,000). >Endgame is by far the biggest non-Spider-Man superhero film ever in the market now, an achievement it accomplished last week, and will soon exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone. A ¥6 billion ($55 million) finish is probably asking for just a bit too much, but it'll get very close to that mark, likely finishing with ¥5.8/5.9 billion. That won't be enough to put it over any of the Spider-Man trilogy films, but to put this number into perspective, it'll be 60% higher than Infinity War; 65% higher than The Avengers; and 85% higher than Age of Ultron. >Detective Pikachu held very well in the post-Golden Week weekend, though the drop is a little misleading since it opened on the tail-end of the holiday frame. Still, this is a good hold, much stronger than the second weekend holds that the animated films typically have. I'm actually expecting legs to be pretty solid, so a total of ¥3 billion ($25 million+) is attainable. >Kingdom is still going strong, exceeding the ¥4 billion milestone over its fourth weekend of release. It's been showing some of the better post-Golden Week holds, and even with mediocre legs from this point on, it should be able to reach the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone. This is a big win for Toho (and Sony), as well as for live-action adaptation of popular manga. If it exceeds ¥5 billion, it'll become only the third ever live-action manga adaptation from a Weekly Shonen, following second films in the Death Note and Rurouni Kenshin trilogies, respectively. >Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire experienced a harsh drop in both earnings and ranking in its fifth weekend of release, but the decline was to be expected given its strength over the Golden Week holiday frame. It will end up getting very close to the ¥9 billion ($80 million+) mark, but it could also just fall short. Last year's film, Zero the Enforcer (the highest grossing film in the franchise), stopped just shy of that figure as well until it received a premium format expansion six-months after its debut that pushed it beyond the mark. >ALL of the openers, ranked 7th-10th, haven't had any of their numbers released yet, except for the 3-day total for The Curse of Llorona. So, they're all estimates based on their weekend admissions rankings. When, or if (due to being either limited or near-limited), their weekend numbers are released, I'll edit this post with them. >And, Bohemian Rhapsody is now at ¥13,002,823,080 ($116.6 million) with 9,414,183 admissions after 178 days in release. It's still playing on 59 screens, but I expect it'll probably finish up very soon now. An absolutely stunning, phenomenal performance.

Do you think SLOP2 will be last Hollywood film allowed before summer blackout period?

With regards to China, a more probable obstacle for Avatar 2 would be the trade war tanking the ER rather than it not passing censorship. Though I suppose if US-China relations gets much worse, the Chinese government could stop allowing Hollywood imported films altogether.

Highly doubt it since Minions was released during the peak popularity of the franchise. The sequel will take a big hit overseas with Latin America (one of its biggest markets) ER plummeting since then. Despicable Me 3 already showed the franchise is on a downward trend both domestically and internationally.

So basically no change from Deadline's midday update.

Good trailer. The crazy old lady reminded me of the grandma in The Visit.

I still remember Gavin saying $300 million was on the table after initial trailer hype in China.

Detective Pikachu starts at 8.6 on Maoyan.