KP1025

I find it pretty funny that a 2016 Dutch movie about a killer lion is in the Top 3.

Domestically, I think SLOP2 and TS4 will both hurt each other a bit given they release just two weeks apart from one another. I2 essentially had no animated competition until HT3. With regards to OS, TS3 was released during the most favorable ER period ever. Adjusted to I2 ER, TS3 would be far under it OS. I can't remember off my head the exact OS figure after ER adjustment, but maybe @salvador-232 knows. TS3 grossed $17.6 million in China in 2010, which was less than half of Despicable Me during the same year. I'm guessing China gross for TS4 could grow to $50+ million, similar to I2.

Bohemian Rhapsody does have 8.6 on Douban. I think among recent Hollywood films, only Green Book is higher at 8.9. The Maoyan score may be a little inflated right now, but it does seem to be a crowdpleasing film in general despite the censored cut removing key aspects of the film.

It's too bad Bohemian Rhapsody has less than 6% of shows. I think it could have had a Green Book type run if it was wider. Even Green Book had 3x the showings when released, and it had HTTYD3 OW and Alita second weekend to compete with for screens. There's also a local film called Song of Youth that also has a breakout worthy score (9.4) right now on Maoyan. Another one to watch maybe?

Corpse: Spring Break 2019 - Daily Estimates, Week 1 (03/21-22)Thursday (03/21) - Vernal Equinox Day:¥275 million ($2.5 million), +1,372%, ¥2.52 billion ($22.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon (Toho) Day 21¥130 million ($1.2 million), 0, ¥1.00 billion ($9.1 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 7¥100 million ($900,000), +126%, ¥2.30 billion ($20.7 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 28¥x85 million ($760,000), 0, ¥400 million ($3.6 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 7¥x85 million ($760,000), 0, ¥x85 million ($0.8 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) NEW¥x60 million ($540,000), 0, ¥380 million ($3.4 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 7¥x55 million ($495,000), +55%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 17¥x40 million ($360,000), 0, ¥x40 million ($360,000), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) NEW¥x35 million ($315,000), +07%, ¥585 million ($5.3 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) Day 14¥x30 million ($270,000), +07%, ¥545 million ($4.9 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) Day 14% changes versus same day last week. Well... Bumblebee sure bombed. First days can sometimes be misleading in the market, but given it opened on a national holiday, weekday or not, that's a pretty pathetic number, one that would require a ridiculous turnaround over the weekend/holiday period to recover.

Considering Lego Batman's lifetime gross of $6.1 million in China, I suppose this is an improvement. 😂 Lego Movie 2 has grossed lower than Lego Batman pretty much everywhere else.

Anything is possible in Japan, but I'd say the chances of that are very low. Corpse previously predicted a total between ¥3 billion and ¥5 billion. Here was his most recent post.

Why F7 over Jurassic World? F7 was only a huge phenomenon in China, whereas Jurassic World was a massive event domestically (broke OW record and ended up 3rd domestic all-time) and big overseas too (minus China, it outgrossed F7).

Not in local currency. TFA grossed ¥11.63 billion versus DH2's ¥9.67 billion.

As a big kaiju fan, my ultimate pipe dream is for Godzilla 2 to gross over $1 billion WW. Realistically, I'd settle for $700-800 million WW.

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)01 (01) ¥437,689,000 ($3.9 million), -28%, ¥2,057,055,800 ($18.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK302 (---) ¥427,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥615,115,100 ($5.5 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW03 (---) ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW 04 (02) ¥227,142,000 ($2.0 million), -16%, ¥2,035,279,800 ($18.3 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK405 (---) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥199,536,600 ($1.8 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW 06 (03) ¥136,303,900 ($1.2 million), -28%, ¥1,116,565,600 ($10.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3 07 (04) ¥x93,549,900 ($841,000), -41%, ¥489,181,200 ($4.4 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK208 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW *Est* 09 (05) ¥x84,534,600 ($760,000), -42%, ¥454,973,500 ($4.1 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2 10 (06) ¥x52,832,600 ($474,000), -33%, ¥12,504,559,180 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19 11 (07) ¥x52,412,750 ($471,000), -25%, ¥594,539,650 ($5.3 million), My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkatsu) WK412 (---) ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), 0, ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), Shimajiro: Journey to Hero Land (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW *Est* 13 (08) ¥x36,221,700 ($326,000), -46%, ¥1,197,247,000 ($10.7 million), Fortuna's Eye (Toho) WK5 14 (11) ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), -38%, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ultraman R/B: Select! The Crystal of Bond (Shochiku) WK2 *Est.* 15 (13) ¥x31,380,100 ($282,000), -39%, ¥4,465,307,000 ($40.8 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK9 16 (12) ¥x30,075,700 ($270,000), -47%, ¥1,404,747,320 ($12.8 million), City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex) WK6>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration managed to claim its third-consecutive weekend atop the weekend box-office with a good hold, one that allowed it to achieve the second biggest third weekend in the franchise (5% below last year's film). After three weeks in release, the thirty-ninth entry in the long-running franchise exceeded ¥2 billion and is now running 12% behind last year's record-setting release -- a slight improvement over the 13% it trailed last week, and 17% upon its debut. Expect a finish between ¥4.5-5.0 billion ($40-45 million). >Captain Marvel was the favorite to take the #1 spot this weekend, ending what's almost certain to be a month long reign atop the weekend box-office for Doraemon, but ultimately proved to be very frontloaded and had to settle for second place. Marvel's latest sold 279,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 754 screens, and reached 408,225 admissions since Friday. Regardless of it failing to reach its potential heights, this is still a good debut that should result in a finish around ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million). >Precure Miracle Universe, the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, debuted in third place and set a franchise opening weekend record for a Spring release in the franchise (the series has a new film open every Spring and Fall). The film sold a solid 221,579 admissions over the weekend on 230 screens. This is a very frontloaded franchise, but this debut should be enough to result in another ¥1 billion release for the franchise. >Tonde Saitama continues to do excellent business, and exceeded the ¥2 billion milestone in its fourth weekend of release and is already up to a 7.8 multiplier. This film is very likely to reach the ¥3 billion ($25 million+) milestone now, and I honestly can't remember the last live-action Toei film that grossed that much -- it's been several years, I'm almost positive, and I'll look into it when the time comes. >You Shine in the Moonlight debuts in fifth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 299 screens, and reached 166,885 admissions since Friday. This certainly isn't a good opening, it's quite mediocre, but it is noticeably better than pre-sales suggested. >Bohemian Rhapsody was in a very, very close race to earn its nineteenth-consecutive weekend in the top 10, and it did just that by a margin of just ¥419,850 ($3,700). It ties Frozen as the seventh film with the most recorded consecutive weekends in the top 10. Its phenomenal performance (remember that it achieved the highest known multiplier ever for a wide release several weeks back) is drawing to a close, and I expect it'll finish with about ¥12.7 billion ($114 million).NOTE: With the expanded Weekend Actuals, it's going to be common for some films (mostly from independent studios) to have estimated weekend grosses and even totals. Any film with *Est.* after it will be one of these cases.

Fantastic for More than Blue. I've encountered quite a bit of positive discussion about this film in my social circle. Shows that direct WOM (friends, family, acquaintances) matters much more than any online score.

Some Hollywood movies have been given July releases in China, but it is rare. Despicable Me 3 got one in 2017 (part of the reason why it did so well was zero Hollywood competition) and also Skyscraper last year (but I think this was considered co-production?).

From Corpse: "Previews started to become less common in 2008, then Eiren (Motion Picture Association of Japan) decided they wouldn't be included in opening weekends anymore in 2010. And since then, previews (which includes midnights) have become a thing of the past with almost no film receiving any with the exception of very, and I mean very, fan-driven films such as late-night anime films getting a few theaters on board once or twice a year (if that). In some situations, previews even included an entire weekend's worth of showings the prior week. Opening weekends these days appear much less "impressive" as a result, and will likely never challenge the very top of the charts."

Based on Gavin's tweet, it didn't seem like the censored cut of BR would have good WOM in China. The score is still early though and based off advance screenings (probably skewed towards those most excited to see the film). I'd wait until more ratings are in before deciding if a break-out will happen.

It's opened everywhere already. Final WW gross should be around $410 million.

For Aladdin, Corpse is predicting between ¥5 billion- ¥10 billion. Same with The Lion King. Aladdin was the highest grossing of the Disney Renaissance films in Japan actually, so I think it has the potential to gross close to Beauty and the Beast. Although the latter did have Emma Watson (household name in Japan because of the Potter mania there) and a more attractive fairy tale castle setting.

For comparisons to other Marvel/DC films.

If that's the case, it could potentially square off against Hobbs & Shaw. Not expecting F&F main saga numbers for that, but it should be big nonetheless.

Looking at the multipliers for recent CBMs, I think over $20 million is likely. All of these multipliers are off the two-day weekend numbers. Aquaman: ~5.0x (still in theaters) Venom: 5.1x Ant-Man 2: 4.1x Deadpool 2: 4.8x Infinity War: 5.6x Black Panther: 5.0x Justice League: 5.4x Thor: Ragnarok: 5.0x Homecoming: 6.2x Wonder Woman: 5.0x GotG2: 4.6x Logan: 4.5x Dr. Strange: 4.7x The very low end gives $19.2 million while the very high end gives $29.1 million. Somewhere between the two is what is most likely to happen.

The Goose effect? Japan loves cats. 😂

Very rare for a sequel with good WOM to drop from its predecessor in China.

That is also what Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) had to say. Hype doesn't seem high for the movie itself, and he is currently predicting a gross similar to other animated Pokemon films ($30 million range). Though the Pokemon films in Japan skew very young, and he warned the live-action nature could very well turn off the main audience too (especially with such a Western feel). With that said, anything significantly over $10 million (where Hollywood live-action remakes of anime/manga properties typically finish) would be good for Detective Pikachu.

Maoyan currently at about 241,000 want to see for Endgame. Very high for a film that is 6 weeks out, and it should amp up considerably as we approach release date.

From Corpse: "Previews started to become less common in 2008, then Eiren (Motion Picture Association of Japan) decided they wouldn't be included in opening weekends anymore in 2010. And since then, previews (which includes midnights) have become a thing of the past with almost no film receiving any with the exception of very, and I mean very, fan-driven films such as late-night anime films getting a few theaters on board once or twice a year (if that). In some situations, previews even included an entire weekend's worth of showings the prior week. Opening weekends these days appear much less "impressive" as a result, and will likely never challenge the very top of the charts."