KP1025

Given the quality of the film, I did not see Alita finishing under Ghost in the Shell. Like other markets minus China, Alita just could not find an audience beyond the fans.

Makes the 8.8 Maoyan rating all the more questionable. General WOM seems more reflective of a 8.0 rating at best.

Is 1 billion yuan still possible with the daily drops it's having?

Easter Monday is a public holiday in Canada. I think some places in the U.S. have schools off too. Zootopia only dropped 20% from Sunday on the same day.

For superhero films only. There have been worse drops for films with bad WOM. Recently, Fantastic Beasts 2 had a worse Sunday and Monday drop. Pretty sure that's not even the worst though. EDIT: Sorry. Misread your comment. 😅

Added another $4 million since last week.

Its screen count is too low for that to happen. Also, early reactions suggest it won't be a breakout like Green Book.

That will definitely happen with China releasing on March 22.

To be honest, I expected Alita to easily beat Captain Marvel way before we had any presales data. It was essentially marketed as a Cameron film, and both Titanic and Avatar had huge success in China. Being a visual CGI extravaganza, I expected a breakout in China with numbers close to Ready Player One. Captain Marvel, on the other hand, I did not have huge expectations for before presales. Trailer seemed generic and unlikely to garner excellent WOM like the unique tone of Venom or insane action spectacle of Aquaman. I was only expecting it to finish on par with other solo MCU films, around $100-120 million. I underestimated how much the Endgame connection would boost it, not just in China but everywhere in the world.

That's a 71.3% drop from last weekend. Not unexpected given the opening of Captain Marvel.

Black Panther dropped 36.7% on its first Sunday in China and ended up with only a 1.61x multiplier. However, Captain Marvel has much less competition than Black Panther faced. I don't see Captain Marvel dropping quite as hard on its subsequent weekends.

Do you think this will limit the potential of both films? It seems like the screen sharing will be an issue.

True, but for a Hollywood animation to reach those heights was completely unprecedented. At the time, only Miyazaki's films had that kind of potential. Here are the all-time highest admissions for animated films in Japan. As you can see, Frozen more than doubled the highest Hollywood animation. Most Attended Animated Films of All-Time 01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: 20.03 million - Frozen (2014)03 :: 19.30 million - Your Name. (2016) 04 :: 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)05 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997) 06 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)07 :: 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (2013)08 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)

And not counting Titanic, the most surprising OS run I've possibly ever seen was Frozen making $250 million in Japan. Considering Japan's annual box office is roughly 1/6 the size, that would be like a film grossing $1.5 billion domestically.

Hopefully, it can get a better multiplier than that. There doesn't seem be that much competition this month in China.

WW, Frozen was one of the biggest surprises of the decade for me. Basically doubled my expectations (was expecting around Tangled numbers at best).

Not only under Godzilla WW but by a large margin too. $380 million WW. 😂

Yes, that should be doable with the extension and no new blockbusters for a while.

Headed for approximately 76-77% drop from last weekend if Sunday behaves normally.

With an 8.8 Maoyan rating, the goal should have been a 2x multiplier. Maybe WOM on other platforms is not that positive.

I guess the Spider-Verse underperformance isn't totally unexpected. Aside from a few exceptions, CBMs have never been that successful in Japan. Add to that an animation style that is very Western and unfamiliar, and I can see why audiences weren't interested. Same goes for Alita bombing like all Hollywood live-action anime/manga adaptations. Will finish around Ghost in the Shell numbers ($9-10 million).

It just passed Solo too.

After seeing it, I would have expected A- or B+. One of the weaker Marvel films for me.

According to @Charlie Jatinder, WW opening is looking more like $450 million.

A little disappointed with Spider-Verse's opening. It probably won't go higher than $15 million with that OW. Tonde Saitama could be the next mini-phenomenon in Japan?