KP1025

Peppa Pig (6th highest film today) 5.9 on Maoyan. 🤣

It's true there is a lot of overlap in audiences. And according to Corpse, the vast majority of Japanese audiences only see 1-2 films per year in theaters. If so many people have already seen Bohemian Rhapsody, it could explain why there was no real demand to see other music-based films (at least not without a significant hook like phenomenal WOM or multiple award wins).

Besides Black Panther, Infinity War, and Incredibles 2, it feels every one of Disney's 2018 releases have underperformed WW. Solo and MPR being the biggest disappointments relative to expectations.

Maoyan scores for the Daily Top 5. Crazy Alien- 8.8 Pegasus- 9.1 The New King of Comedy- 8.7 The Wandering Earth- 9.2 Boonie Bears 6- 9.2

Japan is usually the biggest or at least second biggest OS market for musical films, so this is indeed very unlike the trend. Even Corpse was very surprised and had predicted a total between ¥3 billion to ¥5 billion before its opening. A cursory glance at some of the negative reviews from Japan seems to indicate a lack of interest in the mundane plot about the house foreclosure. Also quite a few comments about it lacking the charm and magic of the original Mary Poppins.

From Corpse. Mary Poppins Returns shockingly disappoints in what should have been one of its strongest markets (musicals often reach around $40 million or even higher depending on WOM). In a reversal of expectations and trends, Aquaman may actually have a chance to beat it in gross now (just has to do better than the average superhero film). A DC film outgrossing a Disney musical in Japan of all places would be one of the craziest things to happen given the market. Weekend Actuals (02/02-03)01 (---) ¥334,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥434,000,000 ($4.0 million), The Seven Conferences (Toho) NEW 02 (01) ¥315,673,300 ($2.9 million), -34%, ¥2,677,707,800 ($24.5 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK303 (---) ¥199,162,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥284,752,200 ($2.6 million), Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.) NEW 04 (03) ¥199,055,200 ($1.8 million), -15%, ¥10,976,657,080 ($98.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK1305 (---) ¥186,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥262,573,300 ($2.4 million), Mary Poppins Returns (Disney) NEW 06 (02) ¥185,215,400 ($1.7 million), -31%, ¥776,088,800 ($7.1 million), 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.) WK2 07 (04) ¥x83,218,400 ($760,000), -29%, ¥1,320,285,396 ($12.1 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK4 08 (06) ¥x66,739,000 ($609,000), -19%, ¥534,624,000 ($4.9 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK3 09 (05) ¥x50,800,100 ($463,000), -44%, ¥3,717,924,600 ($34.0 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK7 10 (08) ¥x50,302,200 ($459,000), -15%, ¥819,081,200 ($7.6 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK5Bonus: 12 (09) ¥x29,112,600 ($266,000), -38%, ¥3,891,863,300 ($35.1 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK8>The Seven Conferences debuts atop the box office, selling 260,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 329 screens, and reaching 350,994 admissions sold since opening on Friday. This is a good debut, particularly for this time of year, and will give Toho another early hit this year. Expect a total north of ¥2 billion ($20 million). >Masquerade Hotel fell a little harder than expected in its third weekend, but it's still a solid hold. It remains on course to to finish between ¥4-4.5 billion ($35-40 million+), making it a very early contender for the yearly Top 10. >Bohemian Rhapsody holds very well again, unsurprisingly. Its thirteenth weekend ranks as the sixth biggest ever recorded. Its multiplier has now reached 30.98, making it the second highest known multiplier for a wide release, behind only Frozen (and it'll probably exceed it). I mostly believe it'll slowly decline (say 15-25% each week) for the remainder of its run, which puts it on course to finish between ¥12-13 billion ($110-120 million). However, if it wins any big awards at the Oscars, I could see going a little higher still. >Snow Flowers delivers a solid opening for Warner Bros., selling 150,927 admissions over the weekend frame across 326 screens, and 230,012 tickets were sold since opening on Friday. Expect a total between ¥1-1.5 billion ($10-15 million). >Mary Poppins Returns debuts in a disappointing fifth place, selling 139,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 654 screens, and 205,337 admissions since opening on Friday. This opening is well below the average for a musical, and after taking the Disney brand into consideration, it makes the debut even worse. Even if it manages great legs (will be tough since it'll be a huge target for screen/showtime cuts), it likely won't reach ¥1.5 billion ($15 million). >Ralph Breaks the Internet continues to fall alarmingly fast, and any chance it had of still reaching the ¥4 billion milestone are gone now. It succeeded in outgrossing its predecessor, but will fall below the average mark for a major Disney/Pixar release in the market. >And I'll give a mention to Dragon Ball Super: Broly since I know a few of you want to know about it. It continues to behave a expected at this point in its run, and it'll come down to the very end on whether or not it'll reach ¥4 billion. I have it finishing agonizingly close, at ¥3.97/3.98 billion, so it'll be decided by Toei and if they want to reach the milestone or not.

Buzz seems pretty good in China with almost a month to go until release. The second film grossed $65 million in 2014, so there is quite a bit of room for growth after several years of market expansion. However, the release date is unfortunate- sandwiched between Alita and Captain Marvel (one week in either direction).

If Disney wanted to push Ralph to $200 million, it certainly could. Tangled managed to hit $200 million from even further behind. Might require some creative accounting or double features with Captain Marvel though. Estimates for this weekend: Ralph Breaks the Internet $740,000 -36% 795 -234 $931 $197,034,779 Tangled (Domestic Total Gross: $200,821,936) Feb 11–13 16 $813,849 -56.0% 784 -585 $1,038 $193,304,696 12

I still don't understand why Disney gave up on Christopher Robin so close to the $100 million mark.

Out. While the previous two F&F films were massive overseas, we don't know how a spin-off will be received by audiences. Without the main cast together, it's possible the film loses appeal among the GA. I know the China board is being pretty conservative about its prospects currently because Dominic Toretto is the face of the franchise. Last I checked, people were predicting $150-200 million in China compared to the nearly $400 million F7 and F8 grossed. Similar to the drop Bumblebee received from the franchise peak of Transformers 4.

Currently 4th place out of the CNY openers, but WOM will be much more important than presales. Operation Red Sea won the year despite opening much lower than the more hyped CNY films like Monster Hunt 2.

I'm excited for this. I really enjoyed the first film, and the sequel seems to retain the same emotional beats.

Definitely a much better film than I expected based on reviews. Very impressed by the cinematography and production design. A real shame it absolutely bombed because the quality was there for me.

From Corpse: Weekend Actuals (01/26-27)01 (01) ¥477,936,200 ($4.4 million), -25%, ¥1,890,628,800 ($17.3 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK202 (---) ¥267,547,400 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥339,218,900 ($3.1 million), 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.) NEW 03 (02) ¥235,631,214 ($2.2 million), -06%, ¥10,460,631,194 ($93.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK12 04 (03) ¥116,388,975 ($1.1 million), -37%, ¥1,167,859496 ($10.7 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK3 05 (04) ¥x94,141,700 ($861,000), -35%, ¥3,626,043,000 ($33.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK6 06 (05) ¥x81,083,200 ($742,000), -34%, ¥377,463,400 ($3.4 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK207 (---) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), 0, ¥96,882,800 ($886,000), Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment (Toho Video Division) NEW 08 (07) ¥x58,509,600 ($535,000), -13%, ¥712,448,400 ($6.6 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK4 09 (06) ¥x46,798,600 ($428,000), -33%, ¥3,837,205,500 ($34.7 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK7 10 (09) ¥x25,795,400 ($236,000), -45%, ¥1,026,887,300 ($9.4 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku) WK5>Masquerade Hotel easily held off the competition, and achieved a very good second weekend hold in the process. Masayuki Suzuki's latest is really connecting with audiences so far, and not only is a ¥4 billion ($35 million) total very likely now, but it could certainly approach the ¥5 billion ($45 million) milestone if it has another strong result this upcoming week. It's very rare for a blockbuster to come out of January, and I honestly can't remember the last January release to exceed ¥5 billion. I'll do some research in the near future, but it may have last happened 10, maybe even 15 years ago. >Bohemian Rhapsody appears back to its incredible ways at the box office after one average week, dropping in the single digits. Its twelfth weekend is the fifth biggest ever recorded, and its twelve week total has made it the twenty-ninth highest grossing film ever. A total north of ¥12 billion ($110 million) is likely. >12 Suicidal Teens, directed by Yukihiko Tsutsumi, ended up with a good debut after pre-sales were suggesting otherwise ahead of the weekend. It sold 206,636 admissions over the weekend frame across 343 screens, and sold 263,398 admissions since opening on Friday. Expect a total above ¥1.5 billion ($15 million). >Ralph Breaks the Internet is showing rather disappointing legs the past few weeks, and I'm confident in saying it's not going to reach the ¥4 billion milestone at this point. It has outgrossed the original by a decent margin, but missing ¥4 billion -- the standard for a Disney and/or Pixar release -- after its opening is unfortunate. >Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment settled for seventh place, and its weekend gross remains an estimate for now. Its cumulative total is the actual figure, though, and it sold 66,335 admissions since Friday across 87 screens. >Dragon Ball Super: Broly held pretty well in its seventh weekend, and having already become the highest grossing film in the Dragon Ball franchise, the only question now is whether or not it can reach the ¥4 billion milestone. I'm still predicting it's going to fall barely shy, but it's not impossible. Biggest Twelfth Weekends/Twelve Week Totals (2001-)¥759.4 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million) - Frozen (2014)¥395.0 million ($3.6 million), -09%, ¥24.40 billion ($200.2 million) - Spirited Away (2001)¥258.7 million ($2.4 million), -13%, ¥18.49 billion ($179.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)¥255.1 million ($2.8 million), -18%, ¥13.82 billion ($155.0 million) - Avatar (2009)¥235.6 million ($2.2 million), -06%, ¥10.46 billion ($93.7 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)¥188.5 million ($1.8 million), -25%, ¥17.23 billion ($167.9 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)¥177.8 million ($1.4 million), -45%, ¥19.19 billion ($146.2 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)¥177.0 million ($1.6 million), -19%, ¥12.44 billion ($115.6 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)¥135.5 million ($1.1 million), -08%, ¥16.51 billion ($147.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)¥124.2 million ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥16.43 billion ($138.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

Maoyan score down to 7.6 now.

Bohemian Rhapsody definitely belongs here now, especially after its bonkers OS run. A biopic with a gay lead making ~$850 million WW by the end of its run is unprecedented. And unlike many films which cross $800 million WW, Bohemian Rhapsody did it with zero help from China.

It would be amazing if The Wandering Earth took the all-time record, but it faces pretty heavy competition around it. Alita also opens on its 3rd weekend. TWE will need amazing WOM to stand out and hold well after CNY.

Japan and South Korea are the last major markets. Japan is pretty big on musicals, so MPR should be a decent hit over there.

Pretty good opening for a film that has been available online for so long. It will only have one week to make money though before being completely killed by the plethora of new local releases on Chinese New Year.

Given the theater expansion this weekend, it seemed to me that Disney wants to push this to $200 million DOM. The early home release will probably make that very difficult though. Digital version drops February 12, less than 3 months from its theatrical debut.

I agree December competition looks comparable to Coco as far as films that could take away audiences. SW: Episode IX and Jumanji 3 might combine for another $1 billion domestic again. Cats could be another musical crowdpleaser like TGS, albeit on a slightly smaller scale. True there isn't another animated film this time, but it's not like Ferdinand made much either ($84 million domestic).

Makes you wonder what kind of reactions people had back when Titanic was released. I really wish there had been a box office forum back then.

Bohemian Rhapsody OS> Crimes of Grindelwald WW could happen as well depending on Japan. That would give it the 4th highest OS gross of 2018 after Infinity War, Fallen Kingdom, and Aquaman.

According to Amazon.jp, the Blu-ray date for Bohemian Rhapsody is now March 14 (was previously March 31 when I checked a month ago). Regarding Frozen, it was a trade-off where they wanted to capitalize on Blu-ray sales right at the start of summer vacation. It did end up the highest selling Blu-ray of all-time in Japan, but who knows if it was worth the sacrifice at the box office. I believe it was Corpse or POTUS who posted it would have finished north of $300 million without the early home release (thus beating Spirited Away as all-time highest film in Japan).

Agreed. ASIB is the type of film that usually makes at least $30-40 million in Japan (great musical performances, emotional love story, charismatic cast, etc). But going against BR, which is still behaving like a phenomenon, was very detrimental considering they draw from the same audience (older-skewing). ASIB would have benefitted a lot from the solid award buzz post Oscars. More distance between it and BR would have helped too, but I guess WB had no idea BR would be so massive in Japan. That said, I'm glad ASIB finally crosses $400 million WW and $200 million OS.