KP1025

Yes, it was #3.

CNY is earlier next year, so maybe Alita can still get a release in late February. That would give it at least a 2 week gap between it and Captain Marvel.

It doesn't appear to have a release date yet. But seeing as imported films are blocked in China from releasing during the CNY period, Alita's release will most likely be delayed until early March. Same as Black Panther moving from February 16 to March 9 in China.

The staggered release is making it look a lot worse too. On a market to market basis, Ralph 2 seems to be performing either slightly above or below Moana so far. But yes, this will end up the lowest grossing post-Renaissance WDAS title since the original Wreck-It Ralph. It's a good thing the studio has Frozen 2 coming out next year.

Bohemian Rhapsody really reminds me of a mini-Titanic in its phenomenal legs and ability to break out in almost every OS market. It's very rare for a film to resonate so well globally.

Seems I overestimated ASIB's chances in Japan. But according to Corpse, it has had its thunder stolen by Bohemian Rhapsody (a phenomenon still not slowing down over there) and didn't have enough award buzz to propel interest. Hopefully can still earn close to $15 million.

Japan will top it soon and is still on track for close to $100 million and 30+ multiplier.

They're projecting a -18% drop on Sunday. But according to the estimates, it supposedly dropped 10% on Saturday.

For anyone curious about the potential of upcoming films in Japan, Corpse has given a rough range of how the major films of 2019 will likely perform.

I'm surprised Grinch dropped on Christmas Day. Thought it would get its last major boost before dropping off post-holidays.

I think Avatar 2 will be fine. Aquaman took underwater spectacle to a whole new level, but I fully expect the underwater world of Pandora to be something entirely different and even more breathtaking. There had been a number of films that took viewers to alien planets before Avatar, but it was still revolutionary in its visuals and sense of immersion.

MCU hasn't even reached its full potential yet. Plenty of unexplored territory with the X-Men and Fantastic Four back in their hands.

Very true. Just look at Bohemian Rhapsody. Only opened to $3.2 million and will end up around $80-90 million in total. I don't expect anywhere close to the same legs for ASIB, but it's still way too early to write it off as a bomb in Japan. Even $20 million would still be a decent gross for a Hollywood film in Japan (consider most CBMs/action films only make around $10-15 million over there).

I think that's a bit too pessimistic. Copy and pasting my post from MPR OS thread.

MPR should have a very leggy run with holidays. The Greatest Showman managed a 10x multiplier in the UK with a similar release date. I wouldn't be surprised if MPR does something similar in what is surely to be its biggest OS market. Musicals are almost always a success in Japan, and it normally is the highest or second highest OS market for live-action musicals. MPR is also a Disney film, so that is another plus in the market. With the right push, I can see $50+ million in Japan. Australia usually follows domestic interests in films, so I think it should be good for around $25 million. The rest of the markets are harder to predict. It will probably disappoint in all other non-English speaking territories. No China release apparently, not that it matters (it would almost certainly bomb). The Greatest Showman grossed about $105 million OS minus UK, Japan, Australia, and China. I think at least $200 million OS is possible, with a chance to go over $250 million OS.

Very true. I think Beauty and the Beast clouded peoples' beliefs about the usual ceiling for a live-action musical film. MPR will still be one of the highest grossing in its genre when all is said and done. 1974-Present Live action only. 1 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $504,014,165 4,210 $174,750,616 4,210 3/17/17 2 Grease Par. $188,755,690 862 $8,941,717 862 6/16/78 3 The Greatest Showman Fox $174,340,174 3,342 $8,805,843 3,006 12/20/17 4 Chicago Mira. $170,687,518 2,701 $2,074,929 77 12/27/02 5 La La Land LG/S $151,101,803 3,236 $881,104 5 12/9/16 6 Les Miserables (2012) Uni. $148,809,770 2,927 $27,281,735 2,814 12/25/12 7 Mamma Mia! Uni. $144,169,664 3,194 $27,751,240 2,976 7/18/08 8 Into the Woods BV $128,002,372 2,833 $31,051,923 2,440 12/25/14 9 Enchanted BV $127,807,262 3,730 $34,440,317 3,730 11/21/07 10 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Uni. $120,634,935 3,514 $34,952,180 3,317 7/20/18

Good OS for a Seuss film but bad for an Illumination film. They did their best to adapt the IP, but Seuss will just never be big in Latin America or Asia.

You're right that the ER in general is much worse than for the first film. I'm not expecting much from Argentina, but I think Brazil has the potential for small growth even with the ER drop. Disney films in general seem to be more popular there in recent years. In any case, I think over $300 million OS is locked as well as over $500 million WW. Don't see any other milestones for Ralph 2.

So a $4.6 million weekend minus Japan's opening, around 42% drop. Should add at least another $10 million minus Japan from these territories. Japan can probably add another $35-40 million. Major markets left include Australia, Italy, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Germany, and France. The first film added about $90 million from these territories combined. WDAS is a much stronger brand today, so I'll say maybe another $120 million here. For reference, Moana added $132 million from these territories. The other remaining small territories accounted for $17 million for the first film. A similar growth would lead to about $20 million for Ralph 2. So it looks like final OS could be around $330-340 million. WW around $530-540 million. A bit disappointing for a WDAS film and not a big increase from the first film's $471 million WW.

Where do you see OS total finishing? Is $500 million WW locked now?

It definitely dropped harder than I expected this weekend. Only $500,000 aead of Coco at the same point in its run now (and losing ground), and that added another $48 million after its 5th weekend. Will need a big holiday boost if it wants to cross $200 million. Grinch also dropped harder than I expected for a holiday film given this is the last weekend before Christmas.

$101,028,233 to be exact. Did this extra $2 million come from dollar theaters?

I'd say so. 9-10x multiplier is not uncommon for animated films (especially with upcoming holidays). Also, both Coco and Incredibles 2 reached over $40 million with similar openings.

WOM seems more mixed than I anticipated. Quite a number of people have commented on it feeling formulaic and not being that great a musical to begin with (forgettable songs).

I am surprised Godzilla 2 is not on the list. It seems like a huge crowdpleaser for GA in China. All of WB's monster movies have made over $150 million in China recently (Skull Island, Rampage, The Meg).