KP1025

After a dominating performance in the first half of the year, all of Disney's releases in the second half have disappointed or underperformed to some degree.

Hopefully, Aquaman can cross $300 million domestic. Otherwise, we could be looking at a year where not a single holiday period opener (from just before Thanksgiving to after Christmas) ends up over $300 million domestic. Last time that happened was in 2011. The past few Decembers have really spoiled us with huge grosses, so it's no surprise that it feels a bit lacking this year with Star Wars absent (though I guess the first half of the year more than made up for it with three $600+ million domestic films).

Not in its first few weeks, but its weekend drop was better than Coco last week and is projected to be better this upcoming weekend as well (in raw numbers as well). Coco had pretty bad late legs, with back to back 46% drops in weeks 4 and 5. Ralph 2 could still miss $200 million if holiday bumps aren't as strong, but it's too early to call it dead based on its trajectory from this weekend (still running $2.3 million ahead of Coco at the same point in time).

Not necessarily. Coco was in even less theaters at this point (2,111) and still managed to add more than $50 million. Ralph 2 is projected to outpace Coco this weekend, so it should add a similar amount to cross $200 million. Beating the first film is locked with upcoming holidays.

If any Hollywood film can dethrone WW2, it's probably Avatar 2. MI4 was merely a successful blockbuster in China when it opened, whereas Avatar completely shattered existing box office records. Grossing over $200 million in China 9 years ago is a phenomenal feat, not to mention it also tripled the next highest grossing film at the time.

Universal's $135 million OS total includes the studio's 3-day figure (Friday-Sunday) of $2,474,678 from Japan. Corpse is saying the exact 2-day figure for Saturday-Sunday hadn't been officially released, hence the 2-day estimate still being ¥220,000,000 ($1.967 million). What he does know is that the Grinch has managed 210,923 admissions to date since opening on Friday. EDIT: Corpse has updated his weekend chart with actuals for the Grinch: ¥221,477,000 ($1.98 million).

For comparison, Despicable Me 3 presales were at almost 123,000 the midnight before opening.

What are people expecting for Mary Poppins Returns? Is it possible for it to win the year or at least beat Mamma Mia 2?

Here is Corpse's analysis of the major weekend openers and an update on Bohemian Rhapsody:

The Grinch isn't likely to go much over $200 million OS by the end of its run. Ralph 2 looks like it will finish with over $300 million OS (still many major markets left to open yet), which would allow it to beat Grinch WW.

It's going to be like Moana vs Sing again where one wins domestically but the other wins overseas and worldwide.

Much lower than other Illumination films.

Not that I disagree with your point, but Ralph 2 was still #1 last weekend with Grinch close behind.

I'm disappointed in its run too after such a big opening day. Unlike most sequels, it doesn't seem to have expanded the original fanbase by much (if at all). It will likely fall under the first film adjusted ($215 million) at this pace.

As expected, Grinch is holding extremely well with Christmas looming so close (same with Nutcracker). The only thing stopping me from jumping on the $300 million train is that Christmas-themed films have notoriously bad legs after the holidays. Still, beating Sing would be a major success.

I can't believe this could go below even my original conservative predictions. Seuss is just too hard to sell overseas, Illumination brand or not. Though $500 million WW should still be on the table, no?

Interested to see what post-holiday legs are like for Grinch. If it follows other Christmas-themed films, should drop like a rock once holidays are over. I see most people have Ralph 2 over Grinch from that weekend onwards.

That's terrible considering South Korea has a huge Marvel fanbase and are routinely #2 or #3 biggest OS market for their films. I guess being an animated film does make a huge difference in perception in many markets.

Definitely looking like domestic will be >50% of the gross based on how it's performing in a few major markets.

It seems 7th week theater record may be in play as well then for the Grinch, though I honestly don't know what kind of theater drop to expect for it given the number of major new releases coming out next week. It is a Christmas film though, so I'm guessing theaters will be more inclined to keep it until the holidays are over.

What kind of opening is expected for Spider-Verse next week?

It looks like by quite a margin too. I honestly didn't expect Grinch to hold so many theaters still, even if it is a holiday film. Based on its PTA last week, I was expecting a similar theater drop as Ralph 2.

I missed this reference too. Which scene was it in?

Crazy Rich Asians was also a big misfire in China and a waste of a release slot. But I guess these studios all expected much higher results. China - 11/30/18 $1,143,179 70.4% $1,623,336 12/9/18

I don't think Spider-Verse will do well in Japan. They are extremely dismissive towards any Hollywood animation that is not Disney/Pixar or Illumination. Because of this, any rival Hollywood animation (DreamWorks, Blue Sky, Sony, Warner, etc) stopped getting wide theatrical releases because they typically bombed and weren't worth the resources. Boss Baby was the first successful wide release from another animation studio in a very long time. Fun fact, it actually released in Japan a full year after its domestic debut. And its success was only because Toho (biggest distributor in Japan) has a deal with Universal (of which DreamWorks is now a part of).