KP1025

I assume Wednesday drops are softer because of the federal holiday yesterday?

I see no reason why it would have a better hold than its Thanksgiving weekend considering they are also forecasting Ralph 2 to drop 37%. Since the weekend, the two have been more or less been following each other's increases and drops.

That Grinch number looks more realistic to me. I know it was underestimated by quite a bit last weekend, but the other trades are predicting as high as $15 million for it this weekend. I can't see that happening when its daily drops have followed Ralph 2 very closely.

Is there a reason why the Tuesday bumps were much higher yesterday than previous weeks?

Agreed. Without the early home release, Frozen probably could have challenged Spirited Away for the #1 grossing film in Japan. I mentioned this previously, but Frozen only managed to stay 19 weeks in the Top 10 despite having been #1 for 16 consecutive weeks. Just shows how badly its legs were cut once the Blu-ray/DVD was out.

Like Titanic, Frozen's run in Japan truly defied belief. It managed to stay #1 for 16 consecutive weeks and didn't dip below its OW figure until the 9th weekend. The 10th weekend then increased to surpass its OW again (12th weekend also came close to beating the OW again). Frozen's 8th weekend was actually the highest in its entire run by a good margin, which is almost unheard of in this day and age.

Here is a list of every film that managed to surpass 15x multiplier in Japan.

Its performance in Japan is phenomenal so far. Even factoring in the discount day on Dec.1, its 4th weekend hold is incredible. On track for ¥7 billion and a multiplier of 20x or more.

This could gross more WW than the other big November releases this year (FB2, Ralph 2, and the Grinch). Who could have seen that coming a few months ago?

Coco dropped a harsh 46% in its 4th and 5th weekend despite having amazing WOM. I think it's more likely Ralph 2 improves on Coco's late legs than the opposite.

So much for Gitesh's $21 million forecast.

Coco was at $110 million after its second weekend, so it actually grossed over $99 million more in the rest of its run (finishing just short of $210 million).

I think it's too early to declare $200 million dead. Ralph 2 is about $1 million behind Moana and $8.5 million ahead of Coco at the same point in their runs (using post 2nd weekend estimates for Ralph 2). Coco added almost $100 million from that point onward and Moana another $129 million. Moana legs are most likely unrealistic, but Coco didn't have particularly good late legs because of the combination of TLJ/Jumanji/TGS/Ferdinand. If Ralph 2 can just slightly improve upon Coco's drops in the upcoming weeks (particularly Weekend #4 and 5), it should add at least another $100 million after this weekend for a total around $220 million.

I highly suspect that will be the case, although the staggered releases make it hard to compare so far. I was skeptical when some claimed the Grinch would be an OS monster just based off Illumination’s marketing and brand power (even including the Minions in advertising). Instead, it will probably fall under Sing OS.

The Grinch looks locked to finish over Ralph 2 domestically with a bigger lead than Sing vs Moana. Unless it has better holds here on out, Ralph 2 could fall under the first film adjusted ($215 million).

Musicals and Hollywood biopics usually fare poorly in China, not to mention there isn't the nostalgia for Queen like in other OS markets. Looking at how it's performed in Hong Kong so far (sub $1 million) suggests that the film would likely do poorly if released in China. I'm not sure either party wants to go through the effort of censorship or wasting a release slot in the foreign films quota.

Ralph 2 has a good Maoyan score, so I wonder why drops seem worse than usual.

Musical films always do well in Japan, so $30-40 million shouldn't be too difficult to push this to $200 million OS.

I was very surprised by how low its gross was too. From what I understand, it faced strong competition from Secret Life of Pets and Your Name that summer. Also, the film didn't appeal to women or families as much. The Lion King seems like it will be cuter and more musically inclined than the Jungle Book, so I think that will help with its appeal in Japan.

Japan is a total wildcard. The live-action remakes have ranged from the Jungle Book (¥2.21 billion) to Beauty and the Beast (¥12.40 billion). Hopefully, the Lion King can hit the upper end of this range.

Apparently, reception to the trailer is very good in China. Over $1 billion OS seems likely, but how much higher can it go?

According to Corpse, The Lion King (1994) grossed ¥3.20 billion in Japan. It was beaten by Aladdin, which grossed ¥4.25 billion a year earlier. Not that this really means much, as the live-action Beauty and the Beast grossed much more than its animated counterpart (it seemingly missed ¥3 billion in Japan). Market is a bit different now in terms of brand power/awareness. I hope The Lion King can gross over ¥10 billion like Beauty and the Beast since Japan adores musicals and cuteness.

To be fair, Zootopia and Coco opened just over/under $20 million and went on to gross $236 million and $189 million respectively. Animated films in China typically have low openings and only go on to have insane multipliers if they are very well received. However, it doesn't look like that will be the case for Ralph 2 as its audience scores are not as high.

Japan is off to a good opening so far.

Competition aside, I also have a hard time seeing Grinch appeal to Chinese audiences. The film is not particularly funny or cute, and the lack of nostalgia for the character/Seuss will only make the issues even more glaring.