KP1025

I think slightly higher than Moana numbers. $450-500 million OS.

Impressive for a solo origin CBM, especially one outside the MCU.

Does anyone know why Incredibles 2 increased so much on Friday despite losing theaters?

That 68.2% drop for Christopher Robin. 😱Going to take some real fudge to get to $100 million now.

Approximately $7 million was from China last week, but it looks like MI6 has just ended its run there and will not be extended for the holiday week.

MI5 also didn't have 3D if I remember correctly.

I don't understand why WB didn't give Rampage double features with the Meg. They pair perfectly together, and Rampage would have easily gotten over $100 million given how close it already was to the milestone.

Domestic: $413,025,695 31.9% + Foreign: $882,500,000 68.1% = Worldwide: $1,295,525,695 Less than $4.5 million to go until $1.3 billion.

South Korea has a huge Marvel fanbase, and they are consistently one of the top 3 OS markets for any Marvel film (performing above average for its market size). I can see why Ant-Man 2 had a big increase from the first film in South Korea, as the character is more well-known now. The other OS markets just don't seem to care about the character as much.

It looks like The Meg will end up beating Solo WW with ease then. 🤣

I'm thinking around $600 million OS. TS3 benefited from one of the best ERs and a very high 3D share for an animated movie. Inflation and market growth will make up some of that, but I think TS4 will fall short of the previous film.

Corpse: Weekend Forecast (08/18-19)01 (---) ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), 0, ¥865,000,000 ($7.8 million), Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.) NEW 02 (01) ¥441,000,000 ($4.0 million), -28%, ¥6,950,000,000 ($62.4 million), Code Blue (Toho) WK4 03 (02) ¥408,000,000 ($3.7 million), -23%, ¥3,510,000,000 ($31.6 million), Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa) WK3 04 (03) ¥339,000,000 ($3.1 million), -27%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.4 million), Incredibles 2 (Disney) WK3 05 (04) ¥241,000,000 ($2.2 million), -22%, ¥7,390,000,000 ($65.9 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa) WK606 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), The Seven Deadly Sins: Prisoner of the Sky (Toei) NEW 07 (05) ¥202,000,000 ($1.8 million), -17%, ¥1,030,000,000 ($9.3 million), Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.) WK2 08 (09) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), +20%, ¥785,000,000 ($7.1 million), One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace) WK9 09 (06) ¥117,000,000 ($1.1 million), -24%, ¥2,490,000,000 ($22.6 million), Mirai of the Future (Toho) WK5 10 (10) ¥87,000,000 ($785,000), -29%, ¥2,685,000,000 ($24.3 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho) WK6 11 (07) ¥85,000,000 ($765,000), -39%, ¥1,255,000,000 ($11.4 million), My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho) WK312 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($720,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($990,000), Penguin Highway (Toho Video Division) NEWGintama 2 is outpacing its predecessor in pre-sales by a fair margin (~15%), and looks to once again debut above the ¥500 million mark, and maybe reaching ¥600 million this time. Live-action adaptations of popular manga/anime haven't performed well in recent years, but the very loyal fans of Gintama brand continue to support it in every way they can. Look for it to finish around ¥3.5-4 billion ($30-35 million) if the weekend forecast is accurate. It's the shonen series that always seems like it's about to lose steam/popularity, just to rises back up once again.Code Blue will likely be dethroned in its fourth-weekend, but is still going to deliver a strong result in second place. It'll be right on the cusp of the ¥7 billion milestone after Sunday, and will soon overtake Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. It's easily going to exceed ¥8 billion ($70 million), a milestone that only seven other domestic live-action films have done before it, and will be aiming for a total around ¥9 billion ($80 million) -- a milestone that only three domestic live-action films have achieved. It's the favorite to win the 2018 yearly crown now, as it'll overtake Fallen Kingdom as mentioned, and should outgross Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (est. ¥8.69 billion).Mission: Impossible - Fallout and Incredibles 2 continue to remain incredibly close to one another and are aiming to exceed ¥5 billion ($45 million+). Both films are very likely to exceed the blockbuster milestone, and may approach ¥6 billion (~$55 million). I'm leaning toward Fallout being highest earner of the two, since it'll survive the post-Summer drop-off more than Incredibles 2, but it's going to be close.Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is still performing very well, and is going to exceed ¥8 billion ($70 million) without much trouble and should reach ¥8.5 billion ($75 million)... But I just don't think it has enough in the tank to finish closer to or above ¥9 billion ($80 million) which is needed to win the yearly crown. Either way, it's looking at a 89-92% retention from the original, which is stellar.The Seven Deadly Sins: Prisoner of the Sky is an original animated film based on the popular manga/anime series and should deliver a solid debut based on good pre-sales. It's unlikely to open in the Top 5, but a debut around the forecast may be enough to get it above the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone.One Cut of the Dead is expanding a bit more and will probably see another increase based on its pre-sales. It's pretty incredible how this zombie-comedy managed to stay very relevant in limited release for nearly two months to achieve an expansion (very rare in Japan), and to now be posting these numbers while still in limited release (96 theaters). It's certainly one of the most impressive performances of the year, and may stick around in the bottom-half of the Top 10 for many weeks to come.

Like Avatar, Toy Story 3 had an extremely favorable ER and a very high 3D share for an animated movie. Its OS gross would probably adjust to around $500 million with ER today. It's true that inflation and China (Toy Story 3 made around $17 million there) will make up some of that, but I don't think beating or even matching Toy Story 3 OS is going to be easy unless Toy Story 4 is an even better film. For now, I'm guessing it will earn close to what Incredibles 2 is making internationally- around $600 million OS.

How is the China date? Can MI6 earn $200 million there?

I wonder if JW2 will have a big Labor Day expansion domestically like the first film. JW added almost $17 million after a $1.95 million weekend because of the expansion.

Let's assume $150 million in China (around 10% increase from MI5 which seems very reasonable). MI6 then has another $30 million left from Japan, which means the remaining holdovers only need a bit less than $45 million combined for it to hit $500 million OS. Current markets minus Japan added about $32 million this weekend, so that would require a 2.4x multiplier off this weekend.

It looks like Incredibles 2 will recover this weekend with a strong hold. Corpse: Weekend Forecast (08/11-12)01 (01) ¥579,000,000 ($5.2 million), -17%, ¥5,140,000,000 ($46.2 million), Code Blue (Toho) WK3 02 (02) ¥486,000,000 ($4.4 million), -24%, ¥1,975,000,000 ($17.9 million), Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa) WK2 03 (03) ¥459,000,000 ($4.1 million), +09%, ¥2,060,000,000 ($18.6 million), Incredibles 2 (Disney) WK2 04 (04) ¥259,000,000 ($2.3 million), -12%, ¥6,400,000,000 ($57.1 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa) WK505 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥335,000,000 ($3.0 million), Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.) NEW 06 (05) ¥138,000,000 ($1.2 million), -52%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.1 million), My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho) WK2 07 (07) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -08%, ¥1,985,000,000 ($18.1 million), Mirai of the Future (Toho) WK4 08 (09) ¥122,000,000 ($1.1 million), +05%, ¥2,325,000,000 ($21.0 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho) WK5 09 (06) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), -54%, ¥525,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (Toei) WK2 10 (08) ¥95,000,000 ($855,000), -18%, ¥580,000,000 ($5.2 million), Sensei Kunshin (Toho) WK2Obon Festival -- the strongest week of the box-office every year -- approaches, and right before it begins we'll see a strong weekend box-office with many notable holds, and potentially some increases as well.>Code Blue is likely to repeat atop the box-office for a third-consecutive weekend, and will very likely exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone in the progress. Its cumulative total is running ahead of every other film this year at the same-point-in-time, and it's about to enter the biggest holiday period of the year on Monday -- Obon Festival. Unless it receives a lackluster boost next week, I believe it has the advantage in the three-way battle with Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom for the 2018 yearly crown, and could finish near ¥9 billion ($80 million). >Mission: Impossible - Fallout should post a good second weekend hold, but could fall to third place in its sophomore frame. It opened 11% higher than Rogue Nation, but will probably fall a bit behind it after this weekend. However, Rogue Nation was released a few days closer to Obon Festival and had received its initial boost in its second weekend. Once Fallout experiences the holiday period boon next week, I'm confident it'll pull ahead and not look back. ¥5 billion+ ($45 million) is still likely. >Incredibles 2 didn't impress in its debut weekend, but it has since delivered great weekdays, and is in position to experience a second weekend increase. Japanese audiences have dismissed the Pixar sequels, so perhaps it just took awhile for moviegoers to gain interest in this entry. Its chances of reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone, and possibly even outgrossing the original film's ¥5.26 billion total have gone up dramatically in just a matter of days >Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had a harsh 50% drop last weekend due to screen/showtime & IMAX cuts, but it has since recovered some over the past weekdays, and based on Saturday pre-sales, looks poised to deliver a strong fifth weekend gross. It's still in the three-way battle with Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer and Code Blue for the 2018 yearly crown, however, it has slipped a bit and may be the likely third-place finisher. A total around ¥8 billion ($70 million) remains likely. >Ocean's 8 debuts this weekend, but based on its Friday numbers and Saturday pre-sales, doesn't appear likely to become a hit in the market. It'll earn a top 5 debut, but an opening around the forecast will probably only result in about a ¥2 billion ($20 million) total.

It will be very close. Japan should add another $20 million.

What about Furious 7?

I keep forgetting how huge Ice Age 4 was internationally. $716 million OS was an astonishing amount for an animated film back in 2012, especially one that didn't get a theatrical release in Japan. I think the correct figure would be $648 million OS-Ch-J since China was $68 million and Japan was $0. Too bad the 5th film dropped off a cliff.

It should reach that without any problems. This weekend was $10 million minus the new openers in Japan and Spain. These holdovers should contribute another $15-20 million. Japan should contribute another $25-30 million and Spain another $15-20 million. Then you have the major markets Germany and Italy, which should contribute around $50 million combined. The other smaller markets left to open should add at least $15 million combined.

Apparently, Hoot holds the record for worst super saturated opening. $3,368,197 from 3,018 theaters. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=hoot.htm

According to Corpse, Pixar's brand/goodwill has been damaged in Japan ever since they released the poorly received Cars 2. The rise of WDAS and Illumination in Japan has also cannibalized some of Pixar's formerly loyal audience, whereas they had no real competition among other Hollywood animation studios in the past decade.

Yikes, that is not good for Incredibles 2. Substantially lower opening than the first film, which released in December. If I2 has the same legs as Dory (another summer Pixar release), then it will only hit $34 million.

Not looking great for Incredibles 2. Per Corpse: Friday (08/03)¥225 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥225.0 million ($2.0 million), My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (NEW)¥220 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥220.0 million ($2.0 million), Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)¥215 million ($1.9 million), -53%, ¥2.920 billion ($26.2 million), Code Blue (Day 😎¥125 million ($1.1 million), 0, ¥515.0 million ($4.6 million), Incredibles 2 (Day 3)¥70 million ($625,000), -44%, ¥5.460 billion ($48.7 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Day 22)¥45 million ($400,000), -30%, ¥1.480 billion ($13.4 million), Mirai of the Future (Day 15)¥40 million ($360,000), 0, ¥160.0 million ($1.4 million), Sensei Kunshun (Day 3)¥35 million ($315,000), -25%, ¥1.890 billion ($17.0 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Day 22)¥9 million ($85,000), 0, ¥37.00 million ($340,000), Blue Summer (Day 3)¥7 million ($65,000), -57%, ¥420.0 million ($3.8 million), Bleach (Day 15)¥6 million ($55,000), -62, ¥2.050 billion ($18.6 million), Solo: A Star Wars Story (Day 36)¥4 million ($35,000), -60%, ¥4.250 billion ($38.5 million), Shoplifters (Day 57)% changes versus same day last week.It's basically a toss-up on which film in the Top 3 won the day in revenue. My Hero Academia: Two Heroes, thanks to strong pre-sales due to the manga giveaway to the first 1 million attendees, was #1 in admissions selling about 45% of its available tickets, but it likely had the lowest average ticket price so a victory in revenue isn't certain.Mission: Impossible - Fallout had a good first day, one that indicates it'll pretty much open on par with the previous two entries. Code Blue experienced a pretty hard drop from its opening day last week, but last Friday was also a bit boosted from people going to the theaters before the typhoon hit, so I still think it'll have a great second weekend -- especially since last Saturday was deflated a bit. And I have to say... kinda poor for Incredibles 2. I'm sure it'll recover over the weekend, but it's definitely underperforming. It might even have to settle for a fourth place debut this weekend. Also, Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer took a mammoth 90% dive versus last Friday and isn't worth tracking now (it made maybe $3,000 for the day).