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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    That list really shows the effect of the Blu-ray/DVD release on Frozen's box office run. Frozen was #1 for 16 consecutive weeks but couldn't manage more than 3 additional weeks in the Top 10 afterwards.
  2. KP1025
    I was actually asking out of pure curiosity. I've been without Wi-Fi for a whole week, so I haven't kept up to date on the OS performances in each market. From those numbers, it looks like Minions could also go down.
  3. KP1025
    Pixar films have underwhelmed recently in Japan, so I'm not expecting more than $40-45 million there. The superhero theme will not do it any favors for sure. BH6 is the highest-grossing superhero film there (would covert to $83 million with current ER), but that had strong Japanese influences to appeal to the market. It will be interesting to see where I2 ends up WW. Will it beat TS3 to become Pixar's highest grosser?
  4. KP1025
    I think the issue for this film is that most people associate animated CBMs with direct-to-video (a regular thing for both DC and Marvel). I think the animation and story look great, but it will be a challenge to convince the GA that this is a theater-worthy experience.
  5. KP1025
    Great observation. Just for fun, I decided to see what the maximum run for a film this decade would look like taking TFA's domestic total and the biggest OS markets between TFA and IW. I ended up with a calculation of $1.670 billion OS (give or take a few million dollars). Combine with TFA's $936.7 million domestic total, and you'd end up with $2.608 billion WW. Would surely be ahead of Avatar if the ER was the same as Dec. 2009/early 2010.
  6. KP1025
    I was going to say that they could have double features with BP2 as an absolute last resort, but then I noticed that old (out of theatrical release) films don't seem to have their gross updated in such an event. E.g. TFA/TLJ, DP/DP2 double features had no effect on bumping the previous film
  7. KP1025
    I think the only issue is that Disney seems more focused on pushing A Wrinkle in Time to $100 million right now. Looking at the effect of double features with Solo on its OW, it got the biggest bump that week with +44%. BP dropped 44% instead that weekend, suggesting it did not get much (if any) of a bump from double features. I suspect the same will happen when I2 opens, as it's looking like AWiT will need an extremely large push to reach $100 million at its current pace.
  8. KP1025
    I don't know about $1 billion WW, but animated sequels have exploded from their predecessor before- especially if the first film had a more modest debut. Some examples: Shrek ($484 million WW) to Shrek 2 ($920 million WW) DM ($543 million WW) to DM2 ($971 million WW) It wouldn't exactly be shocking to me for WiR2 to increase a similar amount.
  9. KP1025
    Looking at the markets that are absent and still to open the following weeks (China, Latin America, Australia/New Zealand, Japan, etc), I think this number is quite good. About a 20% drop from the first JW using the same markets if my calculations are correct.
  10. KP1025
    How much did the first WiR film make in China? I can't find any information on BOM. That is a good sign though. It's always refreshing to see an animated film break-out in China.
  11. KP1025
    Unfortunately, I don't feel any hype for the Grinch either. Might end up one of Illumination's lowest-grossing movies considering OS markets are unlikely to embrace it at all (Seuss films have usually bombed OS). For all the criticism aimed at WiR2's latest trailer, that kind of self-referential and pop-culture humor will help sell it big time to a much broader audience.
  12. KP1025
    For me, there are few things in the world that capture the imagination more than dinosaurs. They have a mythical appearance/quality like unicorns or dragons (Google Tsintaosaurus or Dracorex and you'll see the obvious similarities) except they actually existed in real life. You can say these are the most fantastic beasts that ever walked our planet.
  13. KP1025
    Unless BP deviates significantly from Disney's other live-action films, I'd say it probably has at most a month more in theaters before it gets pulled and tracking stops. Looking at a few recent examples of Disney's theatrical windows (from start to close date) for their non-animated films: TLJ: 126 Days Thor 3: 133 Days PotC 5: 119 Days GotG2: 140 Days BatB: 119 Days
  14. KP1025
    Bragging rights, I assume. $700 million is still an incredibly rare milestone that only two films have ever crossed. Aside from Hercules and Gnomeo & Juliet, I don't think Disney has ever abandoned a film so close to a milestone. Alice 2 as well if you include WW grosses (finished its run ~ $500,000 short of $300 million WW).
  15. KP1025
    The drop-off in Japan for Finding Dory was much steeper than I imagined (from ¥11 billion to ¥6.83 billion), yet Japan was still its biggest OS market. Pixar has really been struggling in the market in recent years (even the masterpiece Coco will have to crawl over the ¥5 billion mark) that I don't know what to predict for Incredibles 2.
  16. KP1025
    From the first page. Quite the read, that thread.
  17. KP1025
    Here is that post again for those who missed that thread. We all make bad predictions from time to time, but it was hilarious how far off this one was. $380 million WW prediction versus $1.672 billion WW actual.
  18. KP1025
    This doesn't seem to have affected the previous MCU tentpoles in May, which usually have an overseas rollout a week or more before the U.S release. And these are films that are even more spoiler sensitive (being extremely character driven) than a film like JW:FK.
  19. KP1025
    Not to mention after a packed line-up of superhero films, JW:FK will feel like a refreshing change of pace for audiences seeking a major blockbuster.
  20. KP1025
    I think DM3 benefited from a very aggressive marketing campaign in China and took advantage of a barren summer for family films. If I recall correctly, it was the only Hollywood film allowed during the summer blackout period and thus became the only decent film targeting children during the entirety of summer vacation.
  21. KP1025
    JW would have beaten Ultron in China if not for losing the majority of its screens during the summer blackout period (June 19th in 2015). It had way better reception and legs than Ultron given that the latter had an opening about 60% higher than JW for the 5-day.
  22. KP1025
    I figured OS actuals would drop instead since the U.K. was greatly overestimated according to Rth.
  23. KP1025
    Last I checked (after RTH gave Saturday numbers), the projection was O/U $100 million for the 4-day weekend.
  24. KP1025
    This was from Deadline just mere days before Solo's opening. OS actuals will be sub-50% of even their low-end OS projection. http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-global-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/
  25. KP1025
    It would have been nice to see it be the first non-Cameron film to break $1 billion OS instead of Furious 7. Definitely felt like the bigger event worldwide.
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