Quite fascinating that Avatar is still the #11 foreign film in China despite being the oldest movie released on that list (2010). The vast majority of films on that list are, as expected, from the most recent years due to China's rapid expansion.
I don't think JW2 is dropping 50% from the previous film. That's almost unprecedented for a sequel, especially one to a film as well-liked by the GA as JW. Even applying the pretty harsh JP >TLW drop gets it to $418 million.
Don't forget the wildcard Detective Pikachu releasing one week after A4- also starring Ryan Reynolds. On a more serious note, Aladdin might prove to be formidable competition (even if I have doubts about the director). It should easily be bigger than both DP2 and Solo OS (potentially BatB level or a bit under). And unless Disney moves A4 up a week, it still only has 3 weeks until the next major tentpole.
Is that a good date for I2? Being an animated film, it would be beneficial to have the advantage of summer vacation. Hopefully JW:FK doesn't affect it too much.
I read that Disney is targeting mid-August for IW's Blu-ray release, so it probably won't benefit from the Labor Day long weekend like the first Avengers film. For the past few years, Disney has been saving the big Labor Day theater expansion for their Pixar films rather than their Marvel films.
The only major market F8 lacked on opening was Japan, which later opened to $7.75 million. This bring's F8's total WW opening up to around $550 million.
Summer blackout in China usually begins in July. Last year, the July blockbusters like Spider-Man, Apes 3, and Dunkirk all got pushed to September releases in China. There are some rare exceptions of foreign films being allowed during this period, such as DM3 getting a July release in China.
F7- 26 Days
Avatar- 28 Days
TFA- 33 Days
F8- 47 Days
JW- 89 Days
I can't find a specific date for when Titanic crossed $1 billion OS except that it was around 4 months.
I'd like to believe the point of the massive expansion for AWiT is for it to get over $100 million legitimately. If they just wanted to siphon money away from IW, they probably didn't need to ask so many theaters to give it screens.
I still don't know if it can get over the milestone though. With Deadpool 2 next week and Han Solo the week after, this expansion is going to be very short-lived.
Japan has no affinity for Western comics and super-heroes because they already have a very established manga culture. Most CBMs outside Spider-Man and team-up films barely make $10 million in Japan. IW making $30+ million is a good performance relatively speaking compared to the average CBM.
Not that it cannot be done, but I think it will be extremely difficult to have back to back $2 billion grossers. As mentioned, Infinity War increased significantly from previous Avengers films because it was marketed as the finale to the general audience. Its event status probably drew in new viewers who've never watched the first two films and just wanted to see what the hype was about. The question is if these people will return for the second part.