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Everything posted by KP1025
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Funny enough, I can still see a scenario where it opens to #2 against TLK's 3rd weekend.
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I don't think Mother's Day will be particulary beneficial since IW is not a female-skewing film. Last year, GotG2 dropped 25.1% on that Sunday whereas BatB dropped only 2.9%.
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Rather it go to Disney. They already have a vested interest in the success of Avatar. Getting the Fantastic Four/X-Men is also a huge boon to the MCU.
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Release Dates Discussion | Avengers Endgame 2019
KP1025 replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
What about the summer blackout? I know DM3 got a July release last year (the only Hollywood film I believe), but Spider-Man, Apes 3, and Dunkirk all got pushed to September in China. -
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
KP1025 replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
I was more referring to this list: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/ For a BO-oriented site, you would think they would include the top foreign OWs on there. -
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
KP1025 replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
It looks like BOM only takes domestic OWs into account for the records. I don't see any of China's massive openings in the list. -
Sherlock Holmes 3 won't be a threat at all. The second film only made $187 million, and I predict the third will only drop. It seems like a sequel nobody asked for. The bigger competitor will be Sing 2, which also opens Christmas Day 2020 and which will be targeting families. The previous film was quite well received and grossed $270 million. I think the sequel will be as successful. Avatar 2 should still easily be #1 that weekend though.
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BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
KP1025 replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
They only adjust OS totals if the film is still actively grossing money in these markets. We don't usually see huge fluctuations in ER in the span of a few months, but when they happen they can cause some strange effects. It's why the USD amount of a lot of OS grosses is incorrect on BOM compared to the detailed threads here. They continually adjust the film's entire total in local currency to the current ER rather than just the amount that's grossed during the new ER. I guess they thought it would be difficult to keep track of the different ERs for every single week of a film's run. -
I would say that is practically impossible at this point. Even the extremely leggy Jumanji only made an additional $7 million when its legs were hit after its Digital HD release date (which is this Tuesday for BP), and that was during a very weak March. With major releases coming up, BP will be shedding theaters rather fast now that it's entering home release.
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BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
KP1025 replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
It looks like IW will cross DH2 before BP. -
I think Lion King will beat Avengers 4 too, but I'm curious about its OS prospects. Was the original animated film huge enough in developing and developed markets? To beat Avatar, it would have to extremely positive reception and hype in all the major markets (especially China). The Lion King would basically have to triple the Jungle Book's WW gross to beat Avatar, and that just seems like a ridiculously high milestone to reach. I just don't know if it's that popular to have both a giant opening and fantastic legs in every market.
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Looking at the examples, it looks like there is a global phenomenon approximately once per decade. I'm guessing the next one is also likely to be an original film since big franchise films do not have universal appeal in all markets (e.g. Star Wars is weak in Latin America and Asia outside Japan, MCU is very weak in Japan and not that big in much of Europe).
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In comparison, here are the Top 5 "non-opening week" Fridays: 1. TFA: $49,325,663 2. TFA: $34,394,152 3. Catching Fire: $31,570,448 4. Avengers: $29,223,517 5. Jurassic World: $29,114,435 #1 is obviously out of reach, but IW can probably make a play for #2. EDIT: Adjusted prediction after RTH numbers.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
KP1025 replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
Interesting that while Frozen had 16 consecutive weekends #1 by gross, Spirited Away had 16 consecutive weekends #1 by admissions (11 by gross). Pretty poetic that both films have the record in their respective category, seeing as how U.S ranks by gross while Japan ranks by admissions.- 24,124 replies
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
KP1025 replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
$60 million would be very good, all things considered. I think many were expecting Solo to plummet from TLJ. -
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
KP1025 replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
Casual reminder that Frozen managed to be #1 in Japan for 16 consecutive weeks.- 24,124 replies
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
KP1025 replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Does Infinity War have any significant competition in the next few weeks, or does it pretty much have a vacant field? -
For comparison, The Avengers dropped 9% and Age of Ultron dropped 8.5% on the equivalent day.