KP1025
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Everything posted by KP1025
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BP will be at $688 million after this weekend (basically flat from previous weekend). It seems very likely to pass $700 million unless it loses the majority of theaters in the next few weeks. -
I don't doubt TLK will be a monster in terms of gross, but it doesn't strike me as a film that would be previews heavy enough or have the fan rush to challenge the OW record. For now, I'm thinking a modest increase from BatB OW and better legs.
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With Russia and China remaining out of the major markets, the cumulative WW opening would probably surpass $800 million. Even a conservative multiplier off that gets IW's total to the range of $1.7-1.8 billion, with the potential for more. It's shocking that IW will still take the WW opening record without China. However, F8's OS opening record of $443.2 million is safe.
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Very impressive. I remember you were one of the first to call $250 million OW for IW when most thought it wouldn't approach TFA.
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The Lion King probably has a real shot. The original run (without re-release) adjusts to $700 million in 2019.
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Forget milestones for AWiT and BP. If it's that close, Disney should fudge and get the OW record.
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Japan is probably the only major market where Infinity War will not make Top 10 for the year.
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You mean for a CBM? Beauty and the Beast currently holds the March OW record.
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To be fair, people also accused Disney of fudging Cinderella over $200 million.
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I can't imagine Disney not wanting IW to take the OW record if it's actually within their reach. The headlines and good publicity all around for IW seem more likely to increase profits than a milestone for a film nobody cares about right now.
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It almost killed BatB's chance of $500 million too. I understand they want to strike while the iron is hot to increase DVD sales, but it's painful for a BO follower to see these films potentially miss big milestones because of this.
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Even with this weekend's increase, I don't see how AWiT gets to $100 million. It will require several consecutive weeks of obvious fudging if Disney actually wants to reach that milestone. On the other hand, barring a theater collapse Black Panther should hit $700 million without additional effort from Disney now - only $12 million away after this weekend. Fingers crossed the home release doesn't mess up its final legs.
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I don't know how long the IW effect will last, but BP looks like it will hit $700 million with this weekend's hold. Then again, its home release date in early May makes me cautious of harsher theater drops coming up.
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Not quite the huge increase like he predicted but still a very good drop for Black Panther this weekend in the face of Infinity War.
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I think that drop is too harsh for the second weekend. The way the calendar is set up for December 2020, Avatar 2's second weekend will be boosted by Christmas and Boxing Day. TFA dropped under 40% in its second weekend despite a record-breaking $248 million OW.
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Frozen was the last one to reach and maintain #1, but a number of recent films have entered the Top 10. https://www.the-numbers.com/alltime-bluray-sales-chart
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If TLK opens that high, I would say $800 million is hard to miss. It shouldn't have a worse multiplier than BatB, especially since it appears to be more 4-quadrant in appeal (BatB skewed more female).
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I have read this as the reason too. Apparently, animated films are far more profitable in those single screen theaters than other genres. Something to do with tiny theaters like these making a business selling package deals for kids (like birthday parties). There are also a large number of drive-ins that aren't open for business yet, which is probably why IW couldn't go any higher in theater count.
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Black Panther looks to be getting a pre-release boost from Infinity War as fans get in their last viewings before its OW. Amazing holds since Thursday. But given how Disney is putting everything into IW and BP's home release in a couple weeks, I don't think there will be a push to get it to $700 million if it doesn't hit it naturally. The theater loss this weekend will determine where it ends up. I know some here believe it may actually continue getting boosted by IW and increase this weekend instead of dropping harshly, but I think it will start to shed theaters much faster than before for the reasons given above.
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I don't think TLK getting $1 billion is feasible, but I think passing BP should be a reasonable goal as long as it's a good film. The original run without re-release would adjust to $700 million in 2019, and TLK has drawn in a lot of new viewers since then.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
KP1025 replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
IW has Spider-Man in it, so I'm guessing it will gross a little higher than Ultron. Probably in the range of $30-35 million. -
I have a very hard time seeing TLK more than doubling BatB's WW gross, even if it will be more balanced 4-quadrant in its audience (BatB skewed more female). TLK is no doubt the most popular of Disney's Renaissance films but how much more than the already beloved animated Beauty and the Beast?
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I assume this is the reason for BP's very soft drop this weekend. It's the last chance before IW opens, so I imagine lots of people must be getting caught up on BP since it indirectly ties into the storyline.
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COCO | 597.4 M overseas ● 807.1 M worldwide
KP1025 replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
I really expected more from Japan given the quality of Coco and the reception for good animated films there. Matching Zootopia did not seem like an unreasonable goal ($70 million) given the themes and visuals of Coco seemed tailored to Japanese tastes. But according to Corpse, Coco was more adult skewing and did not attract young kids and families as much. When you consider that DM3 made $66 million in Japan by targeting young kids exclusively, it seems more mature animated films (at least from Hollywood) have a hard time breaking out in Japan.
