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Everything posted by KP1025
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With Russia and China remaining out of the major markets, the cumulative WW opening would probably surpass $800 million. Even a conservative multiplier off that gets IW's total to the range of $1.7-1.8 billion, with the potential for more. It's shocking that IW will still take the WW opening record without China. However, F8's OS opening record of $443.2 million is safe.
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Even with this weekend's increase, I don't see how AWiT gets to $100 million. It will require several consecutive weeks of obvious fudging if Disney actually wants to reach that milestone. On the other hand, barring a theater collapse Black Panther should hit $700 million without additional effort from Disney now - only $12 million away after this weekend. Fingers crossed the home release doesn't mess up its final legs.
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I think that drop is too harsh for the second weekend. The way the calendar is set up for December 2020, Avatar 2's second weekend will be boosted by Christmas and Boxing Day. TFA dropped under 40% in its second weekend despite a record-breaking $248 million OW.
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I have read this as the reason too. Apparently, animated films are far more profitable in those single screen theaters than other genres. Something to do with tiny theaters like these making a business selling package deals for kids (like birthday parties). There are also a large number of drive-ins that aren't open for business yet, which is probably why IW couldn't go any higher in theater count.
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Black Panther looks to be getting a pre-release boost from Infinity War as fans get in their last viewings before its OW. Amazing holds since Thursday. But given how Disney is putting everything into IW and BP's home release in a couple weeks, I don't think there will be a push to get it to $700 million if it doesn't hit it naturally. The theater loss this weekend will determine where it ends up. I know some here believe it may actually continue getting boosted by IW and increase this weekend instead of dropping harshly, but I think it will start to shed theaters much faster than before for the reasons given above.
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I don't think TLK getting $1 billion is feasible, but I think passing BP should be a reasonable goal as long as it's a good film. The original run without re-release would adjust to $700 million in 2019, and TLK has drawn in a lot of new viewers since then.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
KP1025 replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
IW has Spider-Man in it, so I'm guessing it will gross a little higher than Ultron. Probably in the range of $30-35 million.- 24,124 replies
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I have a very hard time seeing TLK more than doubling BatB's WW gross, even if it will be more balanced 4-quadrant in its audience (BatB skewed more female). TLK is no doubt the most popular of Disney's Renaissance films but how much more than the already beloved animated Beauty and the Beast?
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COCO | 597.4 M overseas ● 807.1 M worldwide
KP1025 replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
I really expected more from Japan given the quality of Coco and the reception for good animated films there. Matching Zootopia did not seem like an unreasonable goal ($70 million) given the themes and visuals of Coco seemed tailored to Japanese tastes. But according to Corpse, Coco was more adult skewing and did not attract young kids and families as much. When you consider that DM3 made $66 million in Japan by targeting young kids exclusively, it seems more mature animated films (at least from Hollywood) have a hard time breaking out in Japan.