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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    It looks like Japan will get Coco to $800 million after all. Was a bit worried that all the animated competition would hurt its legs there.
  2. KP1025
    I wish Japan loved CBMs as much as South Korea. It's the only major market where they seem to be rejected. Having most of them make only around $10 million or so is disappointing considering the box office ceiling in the market is so much higher (above $100 million or even $200 million in rare instances).
  3. KP1025
    A bit of a shame Disney couldn't secure the same opening date for China. IW would have taken the WW opening record by a huge margin.
  4. KP1025
    Since China isn't opening on the same weekend, it looks like IW would require an OS opening in the vicinity of $300 million to break the WW opening record (assuming a domestic OW range of $230-250 million). DH2 is the only film to have surpassed that milestone without China ($314 million OS-China OW), with TFA coming pretty close as well ($281 million OS-China OW).
  5. KP1025
    I think it can increase in Japan too. Ultron made $26 million there (compared to $45 million for the first film), but IW has a better release date arguably right before Golden Week.
  6. KP1025
    With that opening, Jumanji is probably looking at around a $10 million total in Japan.
  7. KP1025
    I am very pleasantly surprised at RPO's breakout. I thought it was a fantastic film personally, but I just didn't think that heavy sci-fi reliant on nostalgic references (most of which are from the 1980s Western pop culture) would sell that well in China.
  8. KP1025
    This is what Corpse had to say about Jumanji's prospects in Japan.
  9. KP1025
    Coco had the same percentage drop as Moana in its second weekend, which was also the weekend before Spring Break officially begins in Japan. Coco is actually slightly ahead of Moana's total at the same point in its run. Moana had larger weekends, but Coco had a boost from a holiday last Wednesday.
  10. KP1025
    Seems very rare for a sequel in China to actually drop from the previous film. The most notable examples I can think of are Transformers 5 and TLJ among Hollywood films, and Monster Hunt 2 and Monkey King 3 among local films.
  11. KP1025
    I'm guessing we won't get a Hollywood blockbuster with 9.0 or higher on Maoyan until Rampage. Everything since Black Panther has had bad WOM.
  12. KP1025
    It doesn't look like Coco is appealing as much to young kids compared to Doraemon and Boss Baby if the weaker matinee shows are any indication. The evenings have been very strong though, and skewing older will help with legs post Spring Break.
  13. KP1025
    That Doraemon increase is really impressive.
  14. KP1025
    Will Toho handle all future Dreamworks films? Disney and Illumination could use more competition in the market.
  15. KP1025
    Boss Baby is having a surprisingly strong opening day even factoring in the holiday. End of the Dreamworks slump in Japan?
  16. KP1025
    To make things a little more interesting, Boss Baby is finally being released today in Japan. Will it provide more serious animated competition for Coco, or will it fizzle like most Dreamworks animated films in Japan? At the very least, Japan will help Boss Baby cross $500 million WW.
  17. KP1025
    I'm personally hoping it can make the Top 30 best multipliers (Hollywood animated films are in bold).
  18. KP1025
    https://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/ It is not 100% complete data, but I believe it represents about 3/4 of the theaters in Japan.
  19. KP1025
    I know Corpse tends to be conservative with predictions, but I hope Coco can reach a better multiplier than that. It's hard to imagine it not having excellent WOM based on the quality of the film and specific themes/properties that resonate with Japanese audiences.
  20. KP1025
    Black Panther would need to drop pretty hard to finish with just $650 million domestic. Only needs 2.47x multiplier off this weekend to hit that mark.
  21. KP1025
    Corpse is predicting $20 million max for Jumanji, so it probably won't be a threat. It's also a completely different genre, so it won't have much effect on Coco even it if breaks out. The newest Conan film will definitely be the most direct competition.
  22. KP1025
    I think Coco should have better legs than Moana. Moana faced direct competition from Sing just one week after its release. As both were animated musicals, there was some cannibalization of audiences. Secondly, it was prevented from having a leggy run because Beauty and the Beast opened just 6 weeks after and dominated the market. It lost the majority of its screens and had to face yet another musical, an unfortunate effect of the scheduling that year.
  23. KP1025
    Still early, but based on midday Friday numbers Coco should debut at #1 today. Doraemon still strong at #2.
  24. KP1025
    Spoke too soon. Looks like average Maoyan scores for the new openers.
  25. KP1025
    I see some speculating that this could be test footage from Avatar 2 at 0:36-0:38.
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