KP1025

A very longshot but not impossible given the nature of Japan. $125 million would be 50% of Frozen's gross in Japan.

The score and musical numbers were also a very big draw to people nostalgic for the original animated film. I don't see many people wanting to check out WB's take even if the dark and gritty take had been more unique. Without seeing a trailer, I'm guessing this will do Legend of Tarzan numbers at best.

I'm surprised Massachusetts is that low.

Frozen 2 opens on a Wednesday though, so it's likely the 3-day will fall short. Among Wednesday openers, I think only Shrek 2 has an adjusted 3-day OW higher than the November record (Shrek 2's 3-day adjusts to almost $160 million). Wonder Woman 2 could do it, but it definitely won't be easy. I agree about Grinch being more a leggy run- it doesn't seem like the type of hyped film that would attract a large opening.

The Lion King should easily take the opening weekend record for July.

Even South Africa is not a big market. Ultron only made around $3 million there for example.

They also didn't bother to fudge the less than $800,000 TFA needed for a $150 million second weekend.

Even with the Jurassic Park brand behind it, I remember people were quite pessimistic when projecting its run (likely due to the mediocre reception of JP3). I think the average prediction was like 1/3 of what Jurassic World actually ended up earning.

JW should definitely be included in the same breath as those. I remember people were predicting around $70 million opening for that.

Storm's origin story is actually very interesting. I would like to see Marvel attempt a solo film one day. If Wolverine can have so many films to himself, other X-Men characters should too.

I think just $185 million to surpass Titanic's 3-day multiplier for a wide-release.

Japan can be a huge market ($100+ million) for the right films, but unfortunately CBMs are not the ones. $10 million would be decent for Black Panther since it would be on par with GotG2, Wonder Woman, and Ragnarok.

If I remember correctly, someone here once did this and the maximum OW for a single wide-release (4,000+ theaters) would be over $500 million if every seat in every show was occupied.

I actually think Toy Story 4 might decrease from the 3rd film. The hook sounds nowhere near as interesting as Toy Story 3, which was sold as the final adventure/goodbye. Frozen has a better chance of increasing because it seems the cultural impact has remained steady or even continued to grow after the film's theatrical release (there are quite a few people who were introduced to Frozen via home media that would go see the sequel).

Most iconic one is probably Storm.

Are there any notable Latino or Asian superheroes in Marvel or DC's roster that they could conceivably use to launch a film after WW and BP's success? Most seem to be supporting characters in a team, which makes it hard to headline a solo film.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snowstorm-to-create-wintry-mess-across-much-of-northeastern-us-saturday-night/70004160 Hopefully, it's not too bad.

I'm guessing it's performing more like an average blockbuster outside urban centers and AA-heavy counties. People in Middle America probably aren't turning out on the same level as more wide-reaching event films like TFA, JW, etc.

Thought you might like this one.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/movies/2009/12/here_come_the_cats_with_human_boobs.html That's the closest I can find to an official projection of the film's potential.

According to Corpse, somewhere in the $20+ million range seems achievable.

I would be very surprised if Mowgli came anywhere near Jungle Book's gross. The interest and curiosity factor is going to be much lower now despite WB marketing it as a completely unrelated version from the Disney film. Reading reviews, a lot of Jungle Book's praise came from its visuals and charm. Mowgli is supposed to be a darker and grittier story, and I'm not sure it will get anywhere near the same critical reception and WOM. I think it's much more likely to make Legend of Tarzan numbers in China or around $45-50 million.

Black Panther faces Tomb Raider one week after and then Pacific Rim 2 the week after that. It looks like a very tight competition for screens, especially if those two films break-out. I'm unsure how Tomb Raider will do in China, but Pacific Rim 2 should be very big.

IW and JW2 should be locked for over $150 million. Looking at this year's releases, I think these also have a shot. -Pacific Rim 2 (the first film made $112 million in 2013) -Rampage (monster movie starring the Rock, could approach Skull Island numbers) -Skyscraper (takes place in China, also starring the Rock) -MI6 (MI5 earned $136 million) -Dark Phoenix (Apocalypse made $121 million) -Bumblebee (probably a 2019 release in China though)

TGS hit #3 for the 4-day weekend but not sure if that counts. Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross % Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Jan 5–7 4 $13,770,951 -11.3% 3,342 +26 $4,121 $76,875,323 3 Jan 12–14 4 $12,467,471 -9.5% 2,938 -404 $4,244 $95,221,339 4 Jan 12–15 3 $16,177,587 +17.5% 2,938 -404 $5,506 $98,931,455 4