KP1025

I guess nothing really appears that big in August to me. It seems all of them could have co-existed, and only MI seems like a big enough film to pose a threat. I just don't know if it's worth giving up the summer boost.

They could move Deadpool 2 into August now for less competition.

This change doesn't make much sense. August wasn't that competitive as it is, and the new date is giving up summer weekdays.

Coco did so poorly in Brazil compared to other parts of Latin America where it was huge.

2017 had so many amazing surprises. I hope 2018 has some exciting and unforeseen break-outs on the same scale.

I just want Jumanji to beat Spider-Man to become Sony's biggest hit domestically. And start a new trilogy.

Avatar actually seems to be holding very well in public consciousness according to Google Trends. I've added a few of this year's biggest films for comparison. Also, this obviously doesn't include China which is Avatar's biggest OS market. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=avatar,avengers,deadpool,han solo,jurassic world

It's pretty interesting to see a Pandora recreation outside the Disney parks. https://www.onlypenang.com/penang-attractions/paradise-penang-avatar-secret-garden/

I thought Titanic had ~21x multiplier. TGS needs close to $185 million to reach the same multiplier off the 3-day weekend. $600,788,188/$28,638,131= 20.98

China ended its run yesterday with 491 million CNY total or about $77.5 million. A decent number and easily Jumanji's biggest OS market.

I don't think you need to be a fanboy to predict huge numbers in China. Avatar was a phenomenon of massive proportions there, and over $1 billion in China is actually considered a likely event by most CBO followers. Wolf Warriors 2 would adjust to around $900 million in current exchange rates, and we still have almost 3 years of growth to go until Avatar 2.

Jumanji has the sixth best 8th weekend of all-time. 1 Titanic Par. $23,027,838 3.8% 2,956 $7,790 $600,788,188 12/19/97 2 Avatar Fox $22,850,881 3.0% 3,000 $7,617 $749,766,139 12/18/09 3 Home Alone Fox $12,626,851 4.4% 2,173 $5,810 $285,761,243 11/16/90 4 Frozen BV $11,771,854 2.9% 2,979 $3,952 $400,738,009 11/27/13 5 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $10,425,071 2.9% 1,555 $6,704 $359,197,037 6/11/82 6 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $10,023,344 2.7% 3,136 $3,196 $365,855,215 12/20/17 7 Forrest Gump Par. $9,897,242 3.0% 2,237 $4,424 $329,694,499 7/6/94 8 My Big Fat Greek Wedding IFC $9,748,969 4.0% 1,853 $5,261 $241,438,208 8/2/02 9 There's Something About Mary Fox $8,810,209 5.0% 2,545 $3,461 $176,484,651 7/15/98 10 The Sixth Sense BV $8,435,193 2.9% 2,791 $3,022 $293,506,292 8/6/99

That's a phenomenal hold for Jumanji given the new openers. It will be interesting to see how everything drops when Black Panther opens.

This story is trending on Facebook right now. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/feb/11/peter-rabbit-film-criticised-for-depicting-allergy-bullying

I feel the same way, but annoying kid companions are kind of a trademark for the franchise.

I was actually very surprised that Catching Fire increased from The Hunger Games. Typically, sequels to a $400+ million grossing film decline.

The success of Twilight was very impressive, as were the Hunger Games films (which were all 2D only domestically). I'm still amazed that the first two Hunger Games films made as much as they did in North America. Catching Fire was the #10 highest-grossing film domestically until 2015 and still the 3rd biggest 2D-only opening weekend.

Pirates still had the Disney brand to propel it, which is by far stronger in Japan than any other OS market. It's also worth noting that Disney is the dominant foreign distributor in Japan and can command premium screens, showtimes, etc to its favor versus rival distributors. A good predictor to whether a film will break out in Japan is to look at other major Asian markets like China and South Korea (with some exceptions, like F&F being much stronger in China and Marvel being much stronger in both). Jumanji has performed okay in China but not great in South Korea, which suggests a similar level of reception in Japan. It's not impossible for Jumanji to break out in Japan, but the odds are very stacked against it. Japan is a predictable market for the most part, and you can usually identify which films will be the break-outs of the year well in advance.

Live-action films typically do poorly in Japan unless it's a musical, a Disney fairy tale, or popular franchise like Star Wars, Pirates of the Caribbean, or Jurassic Park. I would expect a gross around $10 million in Japan for Jumanji, which seems to be the average for live-action films outside the aforementioned categories.

The Greatest Showman Blu-Ray also allegedly releases on March 6th. The BO fan in me is not happy about early releases for leggy runs, but I can kind of understand them wanting to maximize DVD sales at the cost of a little of the box office profits.

I can't wait for the full trailer. Chances are good for it joining Pixar's $400+million club along with Toy Story 3 and Finding Dory.

This still looks obnoxious to me, but I guess the market is itching for a new family comedy film. Really wanted Paddington 2 to beat this but doesn't look like that will happen now.

I think late legs will depend on when the home release actually drops. I see a few sites mentioning March 6 for the Blu-Ray. https://www.dvdreleases.org/movie/drama/the-greatest-showman-on-earth/

I see a lot of people on Reddit (I'm guessing franchise fanboys) seriously downplaying the second trailer's success by saying JW2 only has a fraction of conversations compared to IW, Solo, etc. I mean, isn't that expected? There's no ensemble cast of iconic characters with deep entrenched histories or a vast interconnected universe joining them all together. JW2 has a lot less material to discuss, and most audiences are likely going just to see dinosaurs on the big screen and not for the story anyways.

Looks like it will settle around $930 million or so without Japan, which is the only major market remaining. Jumanji doesn't strike me as the type of film to appeal to Japan, so I'd expect the standard gross for a live action movie (around $10 million).