NCsoft

That overseas opening number is actually stronger than I imagined.

Even if nothing else moves out of 2024, it already looks weakish; having lost Avatar 3, MI8, Spiderverse 3, Elio etc... But then surely at least a few more big releases will move out of 2024 if they can't wrap production on time, which I think will make 2024 a relatively forgiving year to whatever end up coming out, at least more forgiving than this year. Inside Out 2 should do pretty good.

If that's the case then it's not getting anywhere near The Flash's $270M; Domestic 95M + OS 95M for under $200M worldwide is possible.

NATO list 2022 ATP as $10.58 for 2022, I'd assume 2023 ATP would be something like $10.80, but with the proliferation of PLFs, I think ticket price is drastically different from one film to another, depending on how much PLF and 3D helps the film. It is hard to imagine any big budget movie with significant PLF has anything lower than $12 ATP these days, Barbie has reportedly $12.65 average ticket price and Oppenheimer at $13.65 for their opening weekends, might go down a bit over time though, Avatar 2 was like $14.5+ https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-barbenheimer-1235443828/

TDK's admission with like Oppenheimer ATP probably easily gets to $900M Even using like a general 2023 ATP say $10.80 gets TDK close to $800M, the admission gap between TDK and Barbie should be pretty big.

Probably will watch everything of note eventually, for the ones likely in theater: The Meg 2 Gran Turismo Poor Things The Creator Dune 2 Wonka The Color Purple Napoleon Wish Hunger Games prequel Saltburn

Since this thread is starting quite early, let's go for Avatar 2's post pandemic page count record!

Yeah, not only is it entirely possible that nothing else this summer quite surpasses $375M, the rest of the year looks worse, like what is realistically going to get there? Aquaman 2? Wish?

Good chance, unless if Spider-verse really does that well. But a $370Mish domestic summer crown with 2023 ATP? Would not have expected it. We'll see how things go, maybe The Flash and MI7 or Indiana Jones can surprise, I kind of doubt it.

I am actually pleasantly surprised by TLM's China run so far tbh, I was expected like $2M total and bulletproof Squirrel was expecting....$0.7M, it gonna be like $4.5-5M though.

China may have declined but is not yet dead for Hollywood, Transformers has achieved the highest grossing film of all time there twice and even if this one's truly horrible, there would be a baked in $80M there at the very least. This really isn't going to be a Shazam situation.

Saldana absolutely the crown when it comes to 2B hits.

Kind of excited, a MCU's film's global run has not been this intriguing for quite some time. On one hand, you have fantastic audience reactions globally, but can it buck the seemingly inevitable downward trend for the franchise? WOM on this level can typically do wonders, but the interconnected nature of MCU might mean once the perception on the entire thing goes south, it is harder for an individual outstanding product to break through. Shared Universe which was once an advantage becomes a disadvantage and drags down the ceiling of what could be otherwise a great run. Guess we'll see what happens.

Yeah the thing about GOTG3's worldwide haul is that it feels pretty baked in no matter what. Even if it has gotten better critics rating than what it seems to be getting right now. Compare to GOTG 2, It is looking to lose like $80M in China alone, that MCU trend in China is not gonna suddenly change, then you lose $28M in Russia, then you take away what looks like at least $60M domestically (that might be being kind). We are suddenly looking at $690M as the worldwide ceiling - that is, assuming it does as well as GOTG 2 in every other market, not to even consider the relatively bad exchange rate. As for where the floor is, not entirely sure...

This light slate probably gives Migration a chance to succeed. It's "The studio that brought you Super Mario Bros movie" afterall.

If this is how low it ends domestically, is $500M worldwide still in the cards?

I would hardly call that a "re-release", it released in some theatres in anticipation and also alongside the sequel.

TWE2 is really not trending that great from day 1 to day 2, will see if it stabilizes in later days. Making an Epic Sci-fi saga with large budget but relying on mostly a single market is... Risky.

Zootopia was a great run (Inside Out and SLOP did great as well, in the same era), not even that many years later, an original animated film doing $1B worldwide feels implausible now.

I'll be watching but it's strange to not knowing who will even be in attendance. I mostly just want to see a Michelle Yeoh speech, would be cool if Cameron or Spielberg are there.

Much better than 3.2M at least!

I'd be content with that, over $700M is a great threshold to pass (I genuinely did not believe in this anymore after that first Monday number). But if TGM does manage to keep that hard earned domestic yearly crown? Sounds alright with me.

Well, the way I see it, 2.26B is quite optimistic but is within high-end of a reasonable range. I can see a breakdown like this Domestic: $650M (Hoping for really good but not out of this world type of leg here) China: $260M (legs are starting to show, and what if it really does get an extension into Chinese NY, and get a bit more box office, even though it's not gonna be a lot). Overseas-China: $1350M (Gonna need to continue to perform, but legs out a little higher than current expectation, is this doable? I honestly don't know.) Worldwide: $2260M (there we go!) Yeah, for anything like 2.5B, it's gonna need extra help beyond the first run, at this point, I've adjusted my expectations and I'm just happy that it has done quite well, and also I liked the film so much! Titanic just needs $60M to get there, it might be able to!

I like that number, occupying #3rd all time for a moment, and then perhaps giving Titanic a chance to get back that spot after re-release.

I think there is a legitimate possibility for anywhere between #3-#7, but really I don't see falling behind JW happening at all. #3 requires a lot of luck and China developing legs because it gets extended through CNY and situation overall gets a bit better (this might seem like wishful thinking but I think is completely possible). My guess is #4 though, seems easier to reach, requires domestic to stabilize and not completely crash, China does $170-$200M, which I think it can; and overseas to continue leggy performance (but nothing crazy needed.)