NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Zootopia and Inside Out 1 grossed the same-ish domestically, if Inside Out 2 can do $650M+ then Zootopia 2 can do $600M+
Maybe, but you can have films that do similarly while having wildly different sequel outcomes. I guess the question is, has Zootopia aged as well in the past 8-9 years as Inside Out? Is Zootopia ripe for a sequel the same way IO was, and is WDAS quality control reliable right now? Is it possible that audiences find the topic about human mind and coming of age earlier to connect with than what Zootopia is offering.
I'd be happy if Zootopia does $600M+ DOM, just think there are other factors to consider, and I think Moana 2's performance is gonna be pretty telling actually.
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7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Well, not 2024 but Zootopia 2 can crack $600M
Doubtful but OK...
In any case Zootopia is like my favourite WDAS output in the past 20+ years.
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27 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
If it does get A+
IO2 Domestic crown will be in trouble
Oh I think domesstic crown is safe by at least $100M regardless of cinemascore, or maybe not, maybe Moana 2 will have something to say about it.
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22 minutes ago, Torontofan said:
seems will be a 50-50 split
It seems like it is more warmly received domestically than most of everywhere else, probably will be the most domestic heavy deadpool film.
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5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Yes
I currently see MineCraft doing something like $400M DOM, and Zootopia 2 like $485M (but I want to see what Moana 2 does because I think it's highly indicative). Maybe Zootopia 2 surprises and actually outperforms IO2 domestically, but to me I feel Zootopia is not quite as revered as Inside Out domestically, its fanfare is far more apparaent in China.
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7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Who is brave enough to start the "Avatar 3 won't be the biggest movie of 2025 domestically" club?
I would agree with that if Shrek 5 got announced for 2025, as things stand, what other film is competitive, Zootopia 2? MineCraft?
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1 minute ago, Stewart said:
"The Seed Bearer"
Is this just the old potential name or is this official now?
I imagine it is still placeholder status, "Kang Dynasty" is also on the picture as well.
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21 minutes ago, Becker said:
Sooooo it's underperforming in:
Mexico
Japan
South Korea
China
How is Europe holding up?
I don't think it is underperforming in China YET... Since the projected OW is on par with GOTG 3, it is just quite likely to have mediocre legs and becomes an average $55M-$60M grosser (well below GOTG3's total $87M). Honestly don't know what a good expectation would be for deadpool in China so this is probably fine, at least it's not pulling a "$15M total" BPWF type of performance.
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13 minutes ago, TomThomas said:
I'm absolutely confident not grossing a billion would be considered a disappointment for Disney after everything they bet on it, all the hype and desperate aggressive marketing. This thing exists to make over a billion.
I think if they were hoping on this being a NWH moment for deadpool, that is clearly not happening (and NWH didn't even have China). Going by the social media engagement, right from the very early days, the excitement was through the roof, if after all that the outcome is similar to a MOM type of situation, they won't be very happy - imagine what's going to happen to the three MCU outputs next year (nowhere near the excitement compared to this).
D&W's financial success was never in doubt.
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57 minutes ago, James said:
Fair enough, but its also off about -15 to -30% from GOTG 3 in all 3 territories.GOTG had the exact same release date last year. That one made 486m OS. Just trying to say that I expected a bit stronger numbers so far, that’s all.
Fyi, I still expect this to make around 500m OS because the WOM seems better than for MoM and there isn’t that much competition. But unless it turns out the WOM is stellar I don’t see 1 billion.
Since GOTG 3 made $87M in China, feels like this film is going to be short ~$30M from that market as well, unless D&W is really well received there, which I highly doubt (the Chinese Internet is very unfavourable toward NWH, for example).
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That overseas opening number is actually stronger than I imagined.
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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
GOt quite a few shares from the nostalgia and Disney adult types on my personal feeds. Think this ends up top five for the year (though we don't know what the year really even looks like yet tbh)
Even if nothing else moves out of 2024, it already looks weakish; having lost Avatar 3, MI8, Spiderverse 3, Elio etc...
But then surely at least a few more big releases will move out of 2024 if they can't wrap production on time, which I think will make 2024 a relatively forgiving year to whatever end up coming out, at least more forgiving than this year. Inside Out 2 should do pretty good.
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22 minutes ago, nevermore said:
Getting eviscerated OS. Might be over 50% domestic.
If that's the case then it's not getting anywhere near The Flash's $270M; Domestic 95M + OS 95M for under $200M worldwide is possible.
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NATO list 2022 ATP as $10.58 for 2022, I'd assume 2023 ATP would be something like $10.80, but with the proliferation of PLFs, I think ticket price is drastically different from one film to another, depending on how much PLF and 3D helps the film.
It is hard to imagine any big budget movie with significant PLF has anything lower than $12 ATP these days, Barbie has reportedly $12.65 average ticket price and Oppenheimer at $13.65 for their opening weekends, might go down a bit over time though, Avatar 2 was like $14.5+
https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-barbenheimer-1235443828/
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31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
What ticket price are you using? Shouldn’t it be around 900m before you factor in IMAX inflation? Surely IMAX inflation wasn’t that much?
TDK's admission with like Oppenheimer ATP probably easily gets to $900M
Even using like a general 2023 ATP say $10.80 gets TDK close to $800M, the admission gap between TDK and Barbie should be pretty big.
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3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
What movies are you planning to watch for the rest of the year (not counting Barbie or Oppenheimer).
Probably will watch everything of note eventually, for the ones likely in theater:
The Meg 2
Gran Turismo
Poor Things
The Creator
Dune 2
Wonka
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Wish
Hunger Games prequel
Saltburn
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Since this thread is starting quite early, let's go for Avatar 2's post pandemic page count record!
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Yeah, not only is it entirely possible that nothing else this summer quite surpasses $375M, the rest of the year looks worse, like what is realistically going to get there? Aquaman 2? Wish?
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3 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:
So is GOTG3 still have a good chance at winning the summer domestically?
Good chance, unless if Spider-verse really does that well.
But a $370Mish domestic summer crown with 2023 ATP? Would not have expected it. We'll see how things go, maybe The Flash and MI7 or Indiana Jones can surprise, I kind of doubt it.
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20 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:
Somebody think it’s underperformance in China,but actually the box office now is already higher than Maoyan’s expect lol
I am actually pleasantly surprised by TLM's China run so far tbh, I was expected like $2M total and bulletproof Squirrel was expecting....$0.7M, it gonna be like $4.5-5M though.
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29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
No it’s not. Getting people to care about Transformers in 2023 was always a huge reach. Getting them to care in the busiest June of all time? Nah. Shazam proved what happens when you release a movie with no interest. Sub 60 DOM if WOM is meh or worse. Can’t count on China for the rescue anymore either.
China may have declined but is not yet dead for Hollywood, Transformers has achieved the highest grossing film of all time there twice and even if this one's truly horrible, there would be a baked in $80M there at the very least. This really isn't going to be a Shazam situation.
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11 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
Zoe Saldana is at 4 with 3 more avatar movies to come
Saldana absolutely the crown when it comes to 2B hits.
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Kind of excited, a MCU's film's global run has not been this intriguing for quite some time.
On one hand, you have fantastic audience reactions globally, but can it buck the seemingly inevitable downward trend for the franchise?
WOM on this level can typically do wonders, but the interconnected nature of MCU might mean once the perception on the entire thing goes south, it is harder for an individual outstanding product to break through. Shared Universe which was once an advantage becomes a disadvantage and drags down the ceiling of what could be otherwise a great run.
Guess we'll see what happens.
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7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Yeah, I don't see these reviews being good enough for most people unfortunately. It's pretty much locked to be the lowest in the series now. Around $600M to $650M worldwide when all is said and done. It is what it is.
Yeah the thing about GOTG3's worldwide haul is that it feels pretty baked in no matter what. Even if it has gotten better critics rating than what it seems to be getting right now.
Compare to GOTG 2, It is looking to lose like $80M in China alone, that MCU trend in China is not gonna suddenly change, then you lose $28M in Russia, then you take away what looks like at least $60M domestically (that might be being kind). We are suddenly looking at $690M as the worldwide ceiling - that is, assuming it does as well as GOTG 2 in every other market, not to even consider the relatively bad exchange rate. As for where the floor is, not entirely sure...
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Moana 2 | November 27, 2024
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
It's amazing how hardly anybody ackowledge Strange World's existence anymore, and Wish is brought up once in a while, but it's also kind of fading to the point when people discuss the mega bombs of 2023, Wish is kind of an afterthought.