NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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I'm pretty sure some YouTube reaction claimed that the Cinemacon clip was about 90 Secs, the 5 Min claim might not be accurate.
I do think 90 Sec makes more sense, if it was a 5 Min no dialogue scenery clip, I think it would have shown a lot and generated more discussions.
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2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
even saudi arabia?
There might be a chance that they decide to ban it like they did with Doctor Strange
But if not, we should be looking at some good numbers over there
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28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Avatar 2
Avatar 3Yeah, it is probably easier to just refer to them as A2 and A3...
1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:Hey NC soft how are you. Wait avatar 2 is coming in Sept?? What in the world?
Hi Kal, doing very well, how about yourself?
Avatar 2 remains in Dec, it is the Avatar remastered re-release that is coming in Sept (I will be there for sure!)
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20 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Just Curious, how much can this re-mastered version &Re-release of Avatar can make worldwide?
Completely depending on release scale and ambition, I think?
Personally, if Avatar 2 is capable of getting to 3B, I'd rather A2 be the first film to do so; Titanic first to get to 1B, Avatar 2B, and Avatar 2 - 3B, it's a nice legacy.
As for the re-release, I'm guessing anywhere between $50M to $200M globally is possible? Also depends on if China is getting it again, could squeeze some more money perhaps.
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57 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
CALLING PEOPLE WHO BEEN FOLLOWING COVID BOX OFFICE
Say if Avatar was to do ~4.5 billies in 2022, in an alternate universe where covid never existed.
What would that look like in our covid ridden universe?
Here is what I think:
Before the whole Covid situation, I had Avatar 2 at 3.7B worldwide, with going over 4B entirely a legitimate possibility. This was based on the thinking that it stays ~Flat in North America, moderate decline in Europe, grow massively in developing markets in Asia and Latin America, and do ~ $1B in China. With global market expansion + inflation + increase in premier formats, I thought Avatar comparable would've been at 4B+ in the 2020s, only question was would Avatar 2 be a Avatar level success.
I am not at all confident about 3.7B anymore, I'm still fairly bullish in its domestic performance and am really bullish in its Asian and other growing markets prospects, No Way Home's performance suggests that box office receipts for top level "must see" blockbusters is nearing normal level plus inflation, the markets are so top heavy and it's benefiting the biggest fish in the sea.
The problem is China, as it always was:
Chinese market currently is a shadow of its former self, with strict lock downs and brutal zero-Covid policy, functioning at 40% of theatres actually opening, but the box office might only be at like 15%. The Batman, fantastic beast and uncharted were each getting only $20M or so, which is abysmal. Under this circumstances, there is like no way that Avatar 2 can gross $800M to $1.2B in China like we thought a few years ago, which would've been easy because even Battle of Lake ChangJin was getting $900M+.
The thing is, there is no guarantee that China will recover by the end of year at all, because the CCP seems determine to keep this "whack a mole" zero-covid policy going and there's no appetite for theatre going at all.
On the other hand, even if we discount this lockdown problem, Chinese nationalism has been dialed up so much recently, that there is considerable animosity toward western films and themes, people's attitude has gradually changed and the recent ban on pretty much all Marvel films encouraged that attitude as well, that Endgame $650M haul in China might have been a last hurrah for Hollywood. In fact, there is no guarantee that Avatar 2 will be released in China, period.
Since it is impossible to predict China, I'm going with a pessimistic "allowed released in a hostile market" situation and predict Avatar 2 does only $200M to $250M in China.
Worldwide total: 2.8 to 3.2B is what I'm currently feeling, which would be both a fantastic performance given the conditions, but a bit anticlimactic for us fans.
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I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨
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8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Now stop with this bullshit "oh people didn't liked it".
All trades are saying the footage was VERY well received. But it's not a trailer aswell, just random sequences reintroducing Pandora, with pretty much 0 dialogue, so there's nothing to say beyond how it looks and in that regard the reception is pretty great.
Some people find the HDR switching so fast between the sequences distracting, but that's it.
I can see this being the case, initially I was puzzled by the seemingly "muted" response and was wondering if it was really not impressive? or were people told to be intentionally vague when talking about it; But if it isn't the 15Min+ in film footage rumored, nor is it actually a trailer in the traditional sense, but a dialogue less footage of Pandora, I can see how people might feel that there isn't that much to say other than the fact that "it is stunning".
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4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Hmm. Expecting the biggest CNY film to do well. That's rookie mistake.
Opening day runner up or 2nd runner up are what we need to look for.
The "most anticipated CNY release end ups grossing less than a smaller film with better WOM" curse probably gets broken this year, or only holds up spiritually (if TBALC 2 has terrible trajectory); I think the gap in anticipation between TBALC2 and whichever comes second & third is probably too big to overcome.
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52 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Very nice. Natural order is restored. Just wish the re-release would not have been at such short notice. Might have performed better. Me, never satisfied.*
EDIT:
*Also, it needs to fend off the eventual Endgame re-release, so every dollar counts.
Yeah, unfortunately I think money is left on the table, what could have been a $100M+ re-run in China is now probably a $55M to $60M run, which, as far as re-release go is still very impressive!
Also, still expecting some sort of rerelease globally in anticipation to the sequel, I still need to see it in theatre again! 😀
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We've done this same mental exercise two years ago as well,
If Avatar and Titanic never existed, the highest grossing films worldwide would have been changed hands between 8-9 sequels one after another consecutively in fairly close succession.
The highest grossing films would have been something like:
SW: TPM
HP1??
LOTR: ROTK
Transformers 3
HP8
Avengers
Jurassic world
Star Wars TFA
Avengers Endgame
so an original film coming out and takes the world by storm literally hasn't happened for almost 3 decades if not for the dynamic duo from James Cameron, the age of original film holding the crown would had long ended ever since TPM; it just doesn't happen anymore.
We are living in the age of franchise films, there is a reason why the top 10 of every year is made entirely of sequels barring an original Chinese film here and there.
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29 minutes ago, hw64 said:
As pointed out above, it's convenient that this huge factor is glossed over or simply ignored or not mentioned when Avatar's gross is discussed, in stark contrast to the exchange rates issue which is often brought up at the first opportunity in order to qualify Avatar's success. You'd expect people on here of all places to consider all factors that affect a movie's gross, but all too often the factors are picked and chosen in order to fit the narrative that someone wants to create (sometimes to hilarious results - Endgame on par with Titanic, anyone?)
Back in 2019 I commented on the film that I thought Endgame's run was probably the most comparable to - Jurassic Park (1993), and that idea was ridiculed thoroughly, but while I realize it's a pointless exercise to compare global box office runs of completely different era, if we were to compare endgame to another worldwide historical record holder, I stand by the judgement that JP is the best comparison.
The resemblance is definitely there, JP didn't win the domestic crown (against ET and TFA in Endgame's case) and won the worldwide crown without actually tapping into the potential of all the market (Titanic proved 4 years later what great potential is there). Endgame squeaked into the worldwide crown though not reaching what a Avatar/Titanic like run could have reached in global market in 2019, doing so without reaching TFA domestic, Wolf Warrior2/Wandering Earth China, or Avatar overseas, it's clear what type of global run it was closest to.
Of course this doesn't change the fact that Endgame had an exceptional run, the second best of the century, and the second best I've ever followed, obviously.
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25 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Indeed. Couple individuals keep painting the picture that Avatar had it easier because exchange rates, 3d and whatnot when in fact it is indisputable fact that the global market expanded big time since Avatar came out, with movies grossing much more globally on average than in 2009.
Yes, what I found interesting is the fact that 2009 (~$29B global market) and 2019 (~$42.5B global market) were both the most obvious thing yet somehow simultaneously the most difficult/puzzling thing to comprehend to a lot of people.
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1 hour ago, The Dark Samurai said:
This re-release stuff is terrible as a box-office fan.
Endgame sold more than a 100 million more admissions, it took 10 years and a perfectly build universe of films to take the number one spot, and a re-release of a film that has been re-released several times will become number 1 again. It was something special to become number one. This? Thoroughly anti-climactic and silly.
I don't care what anyone says, re-releases should not count on the All-Time lists. Otherwise there's absolutely no point in comparing films or follow a films run when it can be beaten by endless re-releases like in this case.
Technically, Avatar has not had a single global large scale re-release yet, this one is also China only. Some people are trying to spread the false impression that Avatar somehow achieved its box office from several rounds of release when in fact, its original run, not counting the one tagged at the end of its global one as a victory lap, still amounted to $2.74B+, surpassing Titanic's original $1.84B by $900M, becoming the undisputed champion of global box office in 2010, in fact, Endgame was the one that needed a expansion/re-release to squeak by Avatar's box office (by $7M) in a global market that was 40% bigger and a Chinese market that was at 2019 around 8 times bigger.
These days, re-release in any country barely makes any money, if a film is capable of becoming all time highest grosser by a few re-runs, thus rendering global crown "not special, and anti-climatic", then I suggest all films just re-release themselves and challenge this title from Avatar.
Global box office crown was and is still definitely special, especially when Titanic and Avatar snatched them in the fashion that they did (demolishing the previous record).
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Avatar has earned about $3.5M on Friday in China, and looking at the presales, Saturday will easily double that amount, which means by afternoon Saturday China Time, Avatar will have (in actuality) reclaimed the the title of "the highest grossing film of all time ".
With this pandemic and its effects on theatrical attendance in the west, my original conviction in the box office performance of Avatar 2 is a bit shaken, but having Avatar back at the top still feels great!
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4 hours ago, LeoC said:
I love Grace's latest analysis of China Box Office. She called the numbers fake because she didn't think it's possible.
Probably the single most infuriating video that I've seen from her, and she has a lot of annoying videos....
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4 hours ago, trevorlinden said:
Wow! Is there are chance The Eight Hundred could be the #1 movie worldwide in 2020?
It just might be.
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1 hour ago, xiazhi said:
douban dropped to 8.1. That was fast.
Might settle a lot lower still, wouldn't be surprised with like a 7.6
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Avatar would have the potential to do great in a China re-release under normal circumstances, but this date is a bit questionable. I heard that most Chinese college students are under fairly strict lock-down and can barely get to the theaters, September is usually a pretty down month in China even without the pandemic. Also, it pretty much has less than 2 weeks to earn money before the national day films rush in October.
My ideal Avatar re-release would be a simultaneous global large-scale release with enhanced visuals, but I guess under the circumstances this is fine.
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On 7/16/2020 at 1:51 PM, IronJimbo said:
All part of Jim's master plan
Dec 2021 be ready
Since it's Dec 2022 now, those "billions of dollars waiting to pounce" better pounce even harder 😉
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I am fine with delay, considering the situation over the past few months, I am not sure if 2021 Dec date will help unleashing the box office potential of A2, even if the situation completely recovers by then; the global box office market (if it doesn't start to progressively decline) will need some time to fully revitalize.
I will be there opening night, that is something I can always hold on to😂
btw, once this is all over, before the new 2022 date, they should still do a global re-release of Avatar at some point.
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Really enjoyed Onward, the way they approached the ending was a semi-surprise but also very pixar if I think about it, I liked it. Agree that Tom Holland does some amazing voice acting.
23 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:Edit: also, what trailers did people get in front of this? I was in a 3D showing (why do I do this to myself I already wear glasses) and got Jungle Cruise and Mulan (the one that played Reflection though, not the one released around Super Bowl)
Mulan, Minions 2, Trolls world tour, Soul, Artemis fowl.
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6 minutes ago, DeeCee said:
Damn! I’m watching Rogue One and I just realised I forgot to watch The Aeronauts before Prime expired.
I forgot that the Aeronauts existed altogether....
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7 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:
Star Wars’ Box Office on Pace for $400 Million Opening Weekend
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/21/business/media/star-wars-box-office-opening-weekend.html
Whereas, Deadline is predicting $350 million
Wasn't deadline initially predicting $450M OW?
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14 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:
TLJ 235 at same markets and ERs. So.... not very. Passing 400M WW debut would be good in my book.
TLJ didn't open at the same time in China, so at least TROS has got that going for it 😅
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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I see signs of buzz picking up for sure, I think Avatar had 2 trending titles on Twitter that Cinemacon day and lasted for quite some time while others films didn't trend quite as much.