NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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24 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Rise of Gru Banned in China
Please don't tell me this has anything to do with "yellow minions" = a form of racism?🙄
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11 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/05/box-office-top-gun-maverick-hit-older-audiences-1234729273/amp/
every day closer to Avatar 2 people are more and more willing to go to the cinema
This is good news for A2 indeed.
Not necessarily saying that A2 audiences will skew very old, but certainly a truly 4 quadrant film like A2 will need significant number of older audiences to show up, and this TG:M number is really encouraging.
I can just imagine a large amount of older audiences who might go to the theatre like once per year who remembers Avatar fondly and just can't wait to get another view Pandora.
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4 hours ago, upriser7 said:
does this even include views of dubbed versions of the trailer?
Pretty sure that number include all major reuploads, the six versions of teaser trailer on the 20th century India channel (include 5 dubbed version of the trailer) collectively total over 20 Million views now and still increasing, that's pretty impressive level of enthusiasm!
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10 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:
If the number of theaters open stays at the same level as of now, what can we realistically expect for JW: Dominion? Does something like 50M sound realistic?
JWD is going to be the first film that is actually interesting to track in China after quite some time, it's going to be a real test for both motivation for theatre attending and level of appetite for Hollywood blockbusters, I think neither is very clear at the moment. Enough theatres have opened but no film big enough opened to test the ceiling for the current state of market.
I think $50M+ is pretty easy, wondering if $100M would be realistic.
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25 minutes ago, excel1 said:
So how big of a bump is TC's next film likely to see? When is the old TC going to team up with the new TC?
Maybe Mission Impossible 7 next year could try for 1B, given that it has a China release and if quality is on par with the previous few entries.
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1 minute ago, Reddroast said:
I'm curious as to your reasoning
Pretty simple, we used to throw out $3.8 - 4B projections in the past few years based on the believe that a film as successful as the original in a 40% expanded global market would amount of at least that much, provided A2 can capture the same level of magic. Those predictions were always predicated on an assumed $800M to $1B in China, subtract that , leaves about $3B, so those predictions doesn't really change, just subtract China.
I think my optimistic scenario is in that range as well, granted it is on the more "optimistic" side.
If $2.55B Worldwide-China can be done in 2009, $3B Worldwide-China-Russia is likely doable in 2022 (pandemic complicates things a little). China isn't the only market expanded, and certainly not the only market with ticket inflation or increase in premium format.
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59 minutes ago, dudalb said:
Well, Compared to the Russian fans, who have had to go Cold Turkey on everything from the West...and I don't see that changing since VLad the Impaler seems intent on isolating the Russian people from the West as much as possible...and I don't see Western movies retuning to Russian theaters as long as VLad is in power. But there is going to be a booming indusry in bootlegging Western movies in Russia, though.
I just realized a while ago that Avatar made like $116M in Russia (didn't think that was possible), that's another major lost revenue for A2 that will have to made up somewhere.
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5 hours ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:
Chapek is a shitty CEO.
But this statement is W.
Fuck China amd their pathetic censorship. I would be done with China if they were banning my movies left and right with no actual reason.
This is the way
As much as I want Avatar to show in China, and make it a true epic box office run.
This is my general sentiment as well!
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18 minutes ago, porginchina said:
There might be more hope in the second half of the year, depending on how the Party handles Omicron. Right now, they're just locking down harder than ever in an attempt to zealously show their dedication to dynamically achieving societal zero spread, or whatever the current smear of jargon-y Xi-pleasing buzzwords happens to be. But the economic damage caused by the policy is extreme and they have to pivot at some point. Living in China, I've been consistently amazed at how central the economy is to the legitimacy of the entire political system of modern China. An economic crash will look very, very bad for the leadership and will be almost impossible to cover up.
I rather suspect that once Shanghai is deemed to be cleared of Covid, we might— might— start seeing some sort of pivot. Possibly. It may not be labeled explicitly as a pivot (there's a lot of interpretive wiggle from in "dynamic zero-Covid"), but it's possible.
Tl;dr— yep, the situation looks bleak as hell right now, but zero-Covid won't last forever and the government will be strongly incentivized to get the economy functioning again in the relatively near future.
I certainly hope this is the case.
I do agree that zero Covid will have to end at some point, recently the RMB trending down hard against USD, and other economic indicators aren't looking particularly good either. You're right in saying that the legitimacy of CCP hinged on economic development, but lately I feel the trend may be shifting toward a more nationalistic mentality based on antagonistic attitude toward the west, I think given the population demographics crisis, even the CCP understand that China's vigorous economic growth will flatten fairly soon and a shift in emotional target is needed.
There are some whispers that relaxation of the zero-covid policy will only come after the 20th congress meeting and then Xi assumes office for next term (I don't think that happens until early next year); the idea is that higher level of political stability can pave the way for policy relaxation. If that's case, we've got quite some time to wait.
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26 minutes ago, porginchina said:
Found this piece on China's May Day box office haul—https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202205/07/WS62761f41a310fd2b29e5b3d4.html
An 80+% year-on-year drop as "better than expected." The moviegoing picture is bleak in China, at least for the foreseeable future.
Pretty unfortunate situation.
Starting to doubt if any film this year, imported or local, can take advantage of the Chinese market size at its maximum.
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16 minutes ago, hw64 said:
‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Teaser Trailer Nabs Huge 148.6M Views in First Day
About 71% of Thor love and Thunder, but significantly more than the first Doctor Strange Teaser.
Not enough to qualify for top 10 but not bad at all!
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55 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:
The meltdowns here if this movie gets banned in China for some arbitrary bullshit reason will be truly incommensurable.
Don't worry, I'm already mentally prepared for that scenario and kind of just by default assume that it won't come out in China.
So new narratives already forming in my head 😄, such as:
"Doing 3 Billion without China is as impressive as doing 4B with China! this run is on Par with the original Avatar!"
"Given the circumstances regarding China, this run still counts as one of the GOAT box office runs!"
"Even though we didn't get that $800M from China that we dreamed of, there's always Avatar 3, 4 and 5!"
"Avatar:TWOW's oversea-China and Worldwide-China record is going to hold for quite some time"
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16 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Yes i know, that's why the views are so fragmented.
Still, it's not really a wise decision to drop it in a channel without any popularity, people have to search for it instead of just receive notification from big channels like Marvel Studios.
The search Algorism is also a little problematic , at some point this morning I searched for "Avatar 2 trailer" on YT and the official video is like the 15th in the results that came up...
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50 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
trailer on the official twitter account hit 10 million views
Have never tracked a trailer so no idea if that's good
I think Twitter view count looks good, probably tracks very close to a hotly anticipated MCU film.
Thor love and thunder teaser from 3 weeks ago had a real urgency factor because it was released so late, its views are currently at 28.7M (after 3 weeks) and I think close to ~20M there after full 24 hours.
YouTube is another matter, view counts are so scattered across different channels (the One media channel alone is approaching 2M views), but honestly not looking bad, main one trending at #2 overall.
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16 minutes ago, Reddroast said:
The point I'm trying to make is that people with large reaches that can influence people. 4.74 million is a lot of people.
Jacksfilms' attachment to the narrative that "no one can name a character in Avatar", and kept making videos bashing it, is actually one of the curious examples of the "Avatar is irrelevant" phenomenon, which is really becoming a beast in itself. Many people so passionately insist that "Avatar has no impact" as if their livelihood depend on it. I'm pretty sure this has never happened to another "irrelevant" films before.
But when Avatar tripled the former highest grossing films in China back in 2010, as it did in many developing markets; people were leaving the theatres in awe not because any "influencers" told them to react that way, it's their genuine reaction that lead to the amazing WOM it had that ultimately contributed to its success, I think it would be the same this time. If the visceral reaction is that strong, and I think we have reason to believe that it will, then words of a few YouTube "influencers" wouldn't matter at all.
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22 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:
How is it faring compared to other big budget scifi movies like Interstellar, Prometheus, Tenet, Valerian etc?
None of those have particularly impressive trailer views, The Valerian trailer has like 11M views after all this time.
Interstellar at 37M would be the highest, Tenet about 36M, referring to the most viewed one on YouTube.
I'm certain none of them would have had ~5M on twitter within 4 hours of release.
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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:
The trailer is pulling strong numbers on Twitter, 1M on twitter already and doesn't look frontloaded at all like MCU flicks where most the views came from first 30 minutes.
The problem is the YouTube since they posted in the Avatar channel which have 66k subscribers. But at least it won't be frontloaded, should get strong views in the next days.
And yeah great trailer but the compression in just terrible, the 4K version i found is way better.
Judging by the number of likes, I'm pretty sure the main YouTube video is at least at 1.5 Million views (just do a comparison with the IGN trailer video on YouTube), but it was stuck at 5000 views or so for the longest time and still hilarious low, the update is just really slow, even more than normal, but the like count seems fine.
The video on Twitter is pass 3M now, doing so well!
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3 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:
The big issue honestly is just placing it on the Avatar YouTube channel. Which like I get, because Disney does this stuff with Marvel and Star Wars, but the Avatar channel gets peanuts in viewership and subscribers compared to the other two. Feel like they really should have plopped it on the 20th Century Studios YouTube channel tbh
Yes, Avatar YouTube channel had like 50K subscribers, I'm puzzled why it seemed like it was only released there.
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18 minutes ago, CloneWars said:
$1 Billion Domestic? Does anyone really believe that's possible?
Not necessarily saying Avatar 2 will do it, but $1 Billion at today's ticket price really isn't that uncrossable barrier anymore, it would certainly be easier than say... $600 Million back in 1997. Pretty sure TFA adjust to over $1B using 2020 ticket prices already, probably quite a bit over 1B using 2022 average prices.
Plus if there is a large proportion of tickets sold in 3D and other premium formats, which will be the case for A2, then it would further inflate box office.
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1 hour ago, porginchina said:
I believe Shanghai is generally expected to return to normalcy either late this month or early June. Hopefully the market as a whole is back to functioning by then as well.
I feel like even if the theatres reopen up to 80%+, the attendance is still going to be way down for quite some time, just because the cost and the fear associated with getting infected (or worse, being locked down literally right in the theatre) is way too high in China that it significantly outweighs any motivation for movie going. The mentality toward Covid is just completely different.
JW Dominion is going to be interesting to watch, it will probably come at a time when most theatres are open though general attendance is still down, but perhaps the right film can stimulate attendance.
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Although I know the "most viewed trailer within 24 hours" reported by studio is a very flawed metric to gauge interest, I still want to see what that number would be for Avatar 2.
But with the teaser being leaked almost two weeks before online release, that view count is probably going to be dampened a bit, most who are curious would have seen it one way or another.
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Yeah, the amount of people who would be so eager and so passionately tell you how much they don't care about Avatar, how they feel indifferent toward the sequel, and how little "cultural impact" it left in our cultural landscape is so astonishing that it deserves to be studied as a cultural phenomenon in itself.
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So Disney keeps nuking twitter posts with this teaser, and then probably new ones pop up.
At this point, it is probably best to just release online, 2 weeks is such a long time to wait since most interested would have seen it already, in cam quality....
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5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
trailer leaked
It did indeed so careful out there if you don't want your first experience of seeing Avatar 2 to be a crappy cam footage...
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TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Certainly not The Batman, Top Gun Maverick is a 50/50, Everything Everywhere yes 100%.