Mermaid trailer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jskKf5YDDAI This is going to be a hit. And it's confirmed for CNY.
I'm putting my bet on Mermaid. I honestly think one of the reasons Vegas to Macau did so well this year is because the competition was pretty stale.. Dragon Blade was awful and a comedy film (in this case Vegas to Macau 2) will always win. Since Mermaid and Vegas to Macau are both comedy films, I'm going to lean on Mermaid making more overall via word of mouth and popular actors.
Yes, it's crowded but it's been a trend. Over 7 movies premiered during CNY this year.