Yep the competition ahead for DU is going to be big. It will surely do great numbers and have good total but those won't be as excellent as they need to be for $200m. If it somehow wins BP then there is a very good chance otherwise I see it topping out at $170m as of now. Plus it is behaving as a blockbuster movie with big mainstream appeal so the Oscar boost won't be big with just nominations.
I think it was expected for Django to increase big still the increase just too big which is a pleasant surprise :)Hobbit is really doing great now. If it can hold well this weekend then $310m-$315m has a slight chance.
Hobbit would need about $70m-$80m from China to get $1b. Its not impossible but not a given at this point. It needs to hold really well over January to have any hopes of a billion dollar. Regardless Bond is going to beat it