Here the admissions in France after 3 weeks :
TH1 : 3 443 572
TH2 : 3 771 570
TH3 : 3 993 859
And it is not more frontloaded than the other two. So I think it is pretty sure the movie will finish around 5 millions [vs 4 505 525 (TH1) and 4 701 246 (TH2)]
France 10-16 Dec (admissions)
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 1 789 196 (Third 2014 opening, behind Supercondriaque and Lucy)
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 1 619 507
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 1 434 119
24.7% ahead of AUJ, 10.4% ahead of DOS
France 5 days (admissions)
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 1 553 657 (2nd biggest opening this year, behind a local comedy)
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 1 391 030
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 1 217 193
27.6% ahead of AUJ, 11.6% ahead of DOS
Paris-Périphérie Thursday (admissions)
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 34 000 (est.)
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 31 320
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 30 807
Paris Périphérie 1 day (admissions)
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 48 746
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 47 174
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 46 461
DH1 7 days : 2 537 450 admissions (Total : 6 016 776)
DH 2 7 days : 3 129 485 admissions (Total : 6 512 424)
Paris 14h - Admissions
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 5 154
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 4 718
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 4 370
Paris 14h - Admissions
The Hobbit - The Desolation of Smaug : 5 154
The Hobbit - The Battle of the Five Armies : 4 718
The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey : 4 370
The holidays will help for sure. 3m admissions seem to be quite reachable, but not much more I think. It is still a very good increase from HG1 (1,7m).
1. The Hobbit : The Desolation of Smaug
2. Dawn of the planet of the Apes
3. The Lego Movie
4. Hunger Games : Catching Fire
5. Frozen
6. How to Train Your Dragon 2
7. X-men Days of Future Past
8. Snowpiercer
9. Godzilla
10. 300 Rise of an empire